In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

There were plenty of predictions to go around yesterday across the NBA and NHL, with our model focusing in on two of those predictions in our Featured Matchups. Those predictions went 2-0 overall, and you can see how each of the models performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 8-0

Over/Under Predictions: 2-5-1

Spread Predictions: 4-4

Featured Matchup: 1-0

Money Line Predictions: 3-1

Over/Under Predictions: 3-1

Puck Line Predictions: 3-1

Featured Matchup: 1-0

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There is one NFL game scheduled to take place today, with that game featuring the Cincinnati Bengals and Baltimore Ravens. Our model’s predictions for tonight’s matchup can be found below.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Orioles

Model Predicts- Ravens ML, UNDER 46, Ravens -3.5

The Cincinnati Bengals will make the journey to Baltimore, Maryland this week to take on the Ravens in a highly-anticipated AFC North battle.

Cincinnati enters Week 11 with a 5-4 record following a loss to the Houston Texans last week, and sits in last place in the AFC North despite being above .500. Meanwhile, Baltimore sits in first in the same division with a 7-3 record, but suffered a loss to the Cleveland Browns last week.

Both Cincinnati and Baltimore are looking to get back on track after finding the loss column in Week 10, but our model believes Baltimore will be the only team to do so. Let’s take a look at why that is.

Cincinnati Bengals

• Coming off loss to Texans last week

  • Lost 30-27. Tyler Boyd dropped what would have been game-winning touchdown

  • Defense was shredded- gave up 544 yards (188 rushing and 356 passing)

• Last week’s defensive struggles weren’t new

  • Rank 31st in yards per play with 6.1. Has risen to 7.1 over last three games

  • Vulnerable on the ground- Rank 28th in EPA/rush, 24th in rush success rate

• Facing key injuries on both sides of ball

  • Wide receiver Tee Higgins and defensive end Sam Hubbard are out

Baltimore Ravens

• Completely collapsed last week against Browns

  • Led 24-9 early in third quarter. Outscored 24-7 the rest of the game

  • Pick 6 cut Baltimore’s lead to one. Lost on walk-off field goal

• Defense is still elite despite last week’s showing

  • Rank second in EPA/play. Opponent success rate of 39.5%

  • Strength is defending the pass- Rank second in EPA/dropback, first in yards per completion (7.8)

  • However, will likely be without cornerback Marlon Humphrey (Calf)

• Rush offense is the key for success

  • Run ball on 51.27% of plays- most in NFL

  • Lead NFL in rush yards per game (154.9)

What’s the Play?

The spread for tonight’s matchup is just past the key number of three, making the spread slightly unappealing. However, we think its still worth the risk to back Baltimore here.

Cincinnati’s offense can’t run the football, ranking 32nd in rush yards per game with just 74.8. It’s likely that we will see Joe Burrow come out slinging the pig skin, but that has proven to be an extremely tall task while facing Baltimore, and things become increasingly more difficult with Tee Higgins sidelined.

To make matters worse, the Bengals have not been able to stop the run all season, holding opponents to an abysmal 5.0 yards per rush attempt, which certainly poses a problem against a run-heavy offense like Baltimore’s.

The Ravens shot themselves in the foot last week in a rare collapse, and we think it is unlikely we see that happen again. 3.5 points is an uncomfortable number in a division matchup, but Baltimore has the edge across the board.

The Play: Ravens -3.5

Money Line Trends 💰

• Baltimore Ravens- 7-3 overall this season, 3-2 as the home team

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Baltimore Ravens- Under is 6-4 this season, 2-2 against AFC North opponents

Spread Trends ➕➖

• Baltimore Ravens- 6-4 against the spread (ATS) this season, 11-6 ATS coming off a loss since 2021

🤕 Deshaun Watson to undergo season-ending surgery. Deshaun Watson's season abruptly ended after just six games for the Cleveland Browns due to a severe shoulder injury that necessitated surgery. Despite a strong performance against the Baltimore Ravens last week, Watson faced a setback, forcing him to undergo a procedure that will sideline him for the remainder of the season. Cleveland, sitting at 6-3 and holding the sixth spot in the AFC, now turns to rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson as their starting quarterback, seeking to rely on their solid defense to maintain their playoff contention.

🐻 Justin Fields returning from four-game absence. The Bears are set to reintroduce quarterback Justin Fields for their upcoming Week 11 clash against the Lions, as confirmed by coach Matt Eberflus. Fields, who suffered a right thumb dislocation in mid-October, missed the team's last four games but returned to full practice recently and is expected to start. Despite some residual healing and stability concerns in his thumb, Fields feels optimistic about his readiness and is anticipated to lead the team after a period of rehabilitation.

Only two NBA games are scheduled to take place today. You can find our model’s predictions for both matchups below.

Oklahoma City Thunder @ Golden State Warriors

Model Predicts- Thunder ML, UNDER 226.5, Thunder -3

The Oklahoma City Thunder will play the first of two consecutive games against the Golden State Warriors tonight in the Bay Area.

Oklahoma City enters tonight’s battle with a stellar 7-4 record and on a two-game win streak, most recently defeating the Spurs by 36 last time on the court. Meanwhile, Golden State sits at just 6-6, with injuries to Stephen Curry and Draymond Green hurting their chances to be above .500.

Our model is leaning towards the Thunder here, both on the money line and spread. Let’s take a look at why that is.

Oklahoma City Thunder

• Have been one of best all-around teams this season

  • Own +4.7 Net Rating- 6th in NBA

  • Consists of 113.9 Offensive Rating and 109.2 Defensive Rating

• Incredibly efficient offense

  • Shooting 49.2% overall and 37.6% from three (NBA.com)

  • Shooting splits have risen to 50.2% and 37.9%, respectively, in last two games. 117.0 points per game

• Elite perimeter defense helps chances tonight

  • Holding opponents to shooting 29.2% from three and 97.0 points per game in last three games

Golden State Warriors

• Will be without Steph Curry and Draymond Green

  • Curry- Knee injury

  • Green- Five-game suspension

• Have struggled to win games when either sits out

  • 0-1 without Curry, 1-2 without Green. Have yet to miss the same game unless you count Green ejection from Tuesday

  • Have been held to 105 points or less in three of four games

• Luckily have good scoring depth

  • Rank 4th in bench points per game (42.6)

  • Bench lacks perimeter shooting- have shot 31.6% from three this season

What’s the Play?

We saw Golden State defeat Oklahoma City by two points earlier this season, a game the Thunder were without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. However, the Warriors are the team with health issues tonight, and we agree with our model that that tips the scales into the Thunder’s favor.

The lack of three-point shooting off the bench for Golden State is a huge concern. 54.7% of Curry’s points are coming from three-pointers, and he is shooting 44.6% from behind the arc, a level of production that no one has proven they can fill with him sidelined.

The Thunder nearly won this matchup without their star player a few weeks ago, and they are set up well to get in the win column this time. We’ll back OKC on the spread.

The Play: Thunder -3 (-110)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Oklahoma City Thunder- 7-4 overall this season, 3-1 as the away team

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Golden State Warriors- Under is 7-5 this season, 3-2 as the home team

Spread Trends ➕➖

• Brooklyn Nets- 9-1-1 against the spread (ATS) this season, 6-1-1 as an underdog

• Oklahoma City Thunder- 8-3 ATS this season, 3-2 ATS as a favorite

😬 NBA suspends Green five games. The NBA imposed a five-game suspension without pay on Golden State's Draymond Green for his role in escalating an altercation during a recent game against the Minnesota Timberwolves. Green's history of unsportsmanlike behavior influenced the length of his suspension, with Klay Thompson, Jaden McDaniels, and Gobert fined $25,000 each for their involvement in the incident. Green's suspension is the fifth of his career, and includes games against Oklahoma City, Houston, Phoenix, and an in-season tournament match versus San Antonio.

🤝 Theis reaches buyout with Pacers, expected to join Clippers. Indiana Pacers center Daniel Theis has reached an agreement for a contract buyout, allowing him to potentially join the LA Clippers as a free agent once he clears waivers this Friday. The Clippers, facing a six-game losing streak following James Harden's acquisition, anticipate Theis' arrival to bolster their frontcourt. The 31-year-old, who had a remaining $7.8 million on his contract with the Pacers, is set to sign a prorated veteran minimum deal worth $2.1 million with the Clippers, filling a void in their roster.

The NHL gets back into the swing of things after a slow day yesterday, with nine games at our disposal. Our model’s predictions for all nine matchups are below.

Vancouver Canucks @ Calgary Flames

Model Predicts- Flames ML, OVER 6.5, Canucks +1.5

The Vancouver Canucks will hit the road for a short one-game road trip to take on the Calgary Flames on Thursday.

Vancouver will hit the road with a stellar 12-3-1 record after an overtime win last night against the Islanders, catapulting the Canucks into first place in the Pacific division. Meanwhile, Calgary sits in 6th place in the the Pacific with a 5-8-2 record.

The Canucks have been far better than the Flames this season, yet our model likes Calgary to defend home ice. Let’s dive into why that is.

Vancouver Canucks

• Pulled off comeback win last night

  • Down 3-1 in second period. Scored three unanswered goals to win 4-3 in OT

• Team is still due for regression on both ends

  • GA/60 in 5-on-5 is 1.68, but xGA/60 is much higher at 2.79

  • GF/60 in 5-on-5 is 3.13, but xGF/60 is 2.59

  • Allow ninth-most high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes (HDCA/60) in 5-on-5

• Expected goalie- Casey DeSmith

  • .942 Save % and .839 high-danger Save % in 5-on-5 situations

  • Ranks 19th in Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) with +2.7

Calgary Flames

• Due for positive regression on both ends of ice

  • GF/60 in 5-on-5 is 2.22, but xGF/60 is 2.69

  • GA/60 in 5-on-5 is 3.07, xGA/60 is 2.55

• Allow very little pressure on net

  • 8th fewest shots on goal per game (29.3)

  • 11.1 HDCA/60 in 5-on-5 situations

• Expected goalie- Jacob Markstrom

  • .899 Save % in 5-on-5, ranks 16th in GSAx (+3.1)

What’s the Play?

The Canucks and Flames are bound to start trending in opposite directions soon, and we’ll back Calgary to get in the win column tonight as a result.

Outside of the looming regression, this is a really bad spot for the Canucks. Vancouver needed to use every drop of gas in the tank for last night’s win, and immediately hitting the road for just one game less than 24 hours later is a tall task.

Markstrom has been better in net than his 3-6-1 record indicates, and Vancouver’s defense will likely be vulnerable against a Flames offense that has more goals coming its way.

The Play: Flames ML (-125)

Money Line Trends 💰

• New Jersey Devils- 7-6-1 overall this season, 4-3 as the away team

• St. Louis Blues- 8-5-1 overall this season, 3-0 in last three games

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Detroit Red Wings- Over is 10-5 this season with average total of 6.93

• Ottawa Senators- Over is 7-3-3 this season with average total of 7.23

Puck Line Trends ➕➖

• Montreal Canadiens- Puck line is 9-7 this season

🤕 Canucks without Soucy for 6-8 weeks. Vancouver Canucks defenseman Carson Soucy will be sidelined for six to eight weeks due to a lower-body injury sustained during the team's 5-2 win against the Montreal Canadiens. Soucy, who has already missed two prior games this season, has contributed two goals and five points in 13 games, ranking fourth in points among Canucks defensemen. His absence poses a challenge for the Canucks, currently in close contention for the top spot in the Pacific Division, as they'll miss a key third-pairing defenseman instrumental in their positive season start.

📝 Oilers place Janmark and Holloway on long-term IR. The Edmonton Oilers officially moved forwards Mattias Janmark and Dylan Holloway to the long-term injured reserve on Wednesday. Janmark's shoulder injury that has kept him out of action since October 26 played a big role in the move, while Holloway recently sustained a lower-body injury in Monday's game against the New York Islanders. In response, the Oilers have called up defenseman Philip Broberg along with forwards Adam Erne and Raphael Lavoie from the AHL's Bakersfield Condors.