In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

There were plenty of predictions to go around yesterday across the MLB, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions in our Featured Matchup. That prediction went 0-1 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 2-2

Over/Under Predictions: 1-2-1

Run Line Predictions: 2-2

Featured Matchup: 0-1

There is one NFL game scheduled to take place, with that matchup being between the Chicago Bears and Washington Commanders. Our model’s predictions for tonight’s game can be seen below.

Chicago Bears @ Washington Commanders

Model Predicts- Commanders ML, OVER 44.5, Bears +6

The Chicago Bears and Washington Commanders will take center stage on Thursday Night Football at FedEx Field.

The Bears enter this one as one of the two remaining defeated teams after a second half collapse last week against the Broncos spoiled what would have been their first win of the season. Meanwhile, Washington is 2-2 on the year but 0-2 in the last two games.

Justin Fields and Sam Howell have both delivered mixed results in the early going, but our model believes Howell and the Commanders will do enough to take the win at home. Let’s dive into why that is and see our model’s best bet for tonight’s matchup.

Chicago Bears

• Finally saw monster performance from Justin Fields last week

  • Completed 80% of his passes, threw for 335 yards and 4 touchdowns

• However, offense has been sub-par all season despite last week’s performance

  • Rank 16th in yards per play (5.0), 23rd in EPA per play, and 17th in success rate

  • Negative game script has forced team to abandon the run

    • Run ball on just 42.16% of plays- down from 56.19% last season

• Have surprisingly good offensive line

  • Rank 7th in pass block win rate and 2nd in run block win rate

  • However, Fields has been sacked 17 times

• Defense is one of worst in NFL

  • 31st in EPA per play

  • Surrendering 267.8 pass yards per game and own 50.3% opponent success rate on passing downs

  • Dealing with injuries in secondary- Jaylon Johnson and Eddie Jackson are OUT, Jaquan Brisker questionable

Washington Commanders

• Offense has been all over the place

  • Scored 31+ points in two of four games, but 23 total points across the other two matchups

• Sam Howell has shown flashes of what he can be, but still has things to work on

  • Decent efficiency- Completing 67.1% of pass attempts, 13th in CPOE

  • However, has 4 TDs to 5 INTs and ranks 27th in success rate

  • Sacked 24 times already this season- most in NFL

• Defense has been poor through four weeks

  • Surrendering 5.6 yards per play- 10th most in NFL

  • Rank 30th in pass rush win rate and 28th in run stop win rate

  • Opponents have scored 33 points or more for three straight weeks

What’s the Play?

This is a tough matchup to predict, as both teams have their shortcomings. We agree with our model that leaning towards the Bears is probably the better side to be on when betting the spread, however, we are going to roll with the over.

Chicago’s offense has finally arrived, and that is great news for the over in this matchup. Washington’s inability to generate any pressure on opposing QBs and stop the run is going to give Justin Fields all day to throw, and we all know what he can do with his legs when needed.

Sam Howell should also have no problems in the pass game, given Chicago’s vulnerable, and injured, secondary, as well as the limited pass rush.

It won’t be the prettiest, but we think a back-and-forth game is the most likely outcome here. We’ll take the over at 44.5, which our model gives a 57.39% chance to hit.

The Play: Over 44.5 (-110)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Chicago Bears- 0-4 overall this season

• Washington Commanders- 2-2 overall this season, 1-1 as the home team

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Chicago Bears- Over is 4-0 this season, highest win percentage in NFL

• Washington Commanders- Over is 2-2 this season with average point total of 52.25

Spread Trends ➕➖

• Chicago Bears- 1-3 against the spread (ATS) this season, 2-8 ATS as a road underdog over last two seasons

Below is a statistical comparison between the Bears and Commanders on offense and defense

What’s included?

• Money Line, Spread, and Over/Under records

• Quarterback Stats

• Leading Rushers and Receivers

• Defense Stats

⚡️Chargers send J.C. Jackson back to Patriots. In a bid to address their dire situation with a 1-3 record and the absence of first-round cornerback Christian Gonzalez due to a shoulder injury, the New England Patriots have made a move to bring back embattled cornerback J.C. Jackson. The trade involves a sixth-round pick going to the Chargers and a seventh-round pick to the Patriots, set to take place in 2025. Despite signing an $82.5 million contract with the Chargers in 2022, Jackson has been a significant disappointment, even being a healthy scratch in Week 3.

👀 Breece hall no longer on snap count. New York Jets running back Breece Hall is set to return to Denver, the site of his previous season-ending ACL injury, with a healthy knee and a potential increase in playing time. Coach Robert Saleh has lifted the restrictions on Hall's playing time that were in place for the first four games of the season, signaling a greater workload. Hall's injury in Denver in 2022 had a significant impact on the Jets' season, but now New York is hoping a healthy Hall can turn its season around.

👋 Broncos release Randy Gregory. The Denver Broncos have decided to release outside linebacker Randy Gregory, dispelling their hopes of him becoming an elite pass-rusher. Coach Sean Payton stated that this move was made for the betterment of the team, indicating that younger players and the team's direction influenced this decision. Gregory, who signed a five-year, $70 million contract in March 2022, had requested his release earlier in the week, and the Broncos, unhappy with his performance and contributions, decided to part ways.

🔔 James Harden returns to 76ers training camp. After missing media day and the opening practice of training camp, Philadelphia 76ers' star James Harden rejoined the team for their second practice under new coach Nick Nurse. Harden participated in most of the practice and appeared to be in good physical shape, according to accounts from those present. While Harden's desire to be traded remains unchanged, the expectation is that he will continue to participate in practice before the preseason opener.

🤔 Urban Meyers shoots down new coaching rumors. Contrary to recent rumors, Urban Meyer is not in the running for the Michigan State head coaching position, as reported by Bruce Feldman of The Athletic. Feldman clarified that Meyer is neither a candidate nor interested in the role, and is content with his current position as a Fox Sports analyst. The former head coach of Florida, Ohio State, and the Jacksonville Jaguars appears satisfied with his current career path, and does not appear to have any desire to return to the sidelines.

🎉 Twins win first postseason series since 2002. The Minnesota Twins ended their 21-year postseason series drought by defeating the Toronto Blue Jays 2-0 in Game 2 of their Wild Card Series. This victory halted the Twins' 18-game losing streak in postseason play that began in 2004 and ended a nine-series losing streak. The Blue Jays made some questionable decisions in the game, and Twins pitcher Sonny Gray delivered a strong performance, setting up a showdown with the defending champions, the Houston Astros, in the next round.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- What current MLB team used to be called the Montreal Expos before relocating in 2005?

Question #2- Before Stephen Curry was lighting up the NBA, his father, Dell Curry, was sinking three-pointers left and right. What team did Dell Curry play for the longest during his 17-year NBA career?

Question #3- Who is the youngest player to play in an NHL game, hitting the ice at just 16 years old?

Anyone know what has happened on April 30th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On October 5th…

1976- The MLB holds an expansion draft, welcoming the Seattle Mariners and Toronto Blue Jays to the league. Both teams selected 30 unprotected players, with Seattle taking Ruppert Jones and Toronto selecting Bob Baylor with their first picks. Unsurprisingly, both teams struggled in year one, with Seattle finishing 64-98 and Toronto finishing 54-107.

2001- San Francisco Giants slugger Barry Bonds hits two home runs in a 11-10 loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers. The two homers were the 71st and 72nd of the season for Bonds, surpassing Mark McGwire for the most in a single season. Bonds would end his career with 762 home runs, the most in MLB history.

2004- NBA legend Scottie Pippen announces his retirement from the NBA. Pippen’s NBA career spanned from 1987-2004, suiting up for the Chicago Bulls, Houston Rockets, and Portland Trailblazers before retiring. He would be selected to the All-Star game seven times and win the NBA Finals six times in his career, leading to his Hall of Fame induction in 2010.

1. Washington Nationals

2. Charlotte Hornets

3. Bep Guidolin