In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

There were plenty of predictions to go around yesterday across the NBA and NHL, with our model focusing in on two of those predictions in our Featured Matchups. Those predictions went 2-0 overall, and you can see how each of the models performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 9-3

Over/Under Predictions: 6-6

Spread Predictions: 7-4-1

Featured Matchup: 1-0

Money Line Predictions: 0-1

Over/Under Predictions: 1-0

Puck Line Predictions: 1-0

Featured Matchup: 1-0

There is one NFL game scheduled to take place today, with that matchup featuring the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Buffalo Bills. Our model’s predictions for tonight’s game can be found below.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Buffalo Bills

Model Predicts- Bills ML, UNDER 43.5, Buccaneers +8.5

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will make the journey north to Buffalo, New York to take on the Bills on Thursday Night Football.

Tampa Bay enters tonight’s matchup at 3-3, with three losses in the last four games taking the Bucs out of first place in the NFC South. Meanwhile, Buffalo sits at 4-3 this season and in second in the AFC East.

Neither one of these teams has put together a strong showing for several weeks now, and our model seems to be predicting another ugly game tonight. Let’s take a look at why that is and see our model’s best bet for tonight’s matchup.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• Started season 2-0, but have gone 1-3 since

  • -16 point differential in last four games. Losses to Eagles, Lions, and Falcons

• Defense is great at stopping run, but vulnerable in pass game

  • 95.8 rush yards allowed per game, rank 2nd in EPA/rush

  • 6th most pass yards allowed per game (246.7). Has risen to 274.7 over last three games

  • Still surrender just 17.6 points per game

• Dealing with injuries on offense

  • Baker Mayfield and Chris Godwin are questionable. Bad news for group that has scored 19 total points over last two weeks

Buffalo Bills

• Have played ugly football over last three weeks

  • Lucky win against Giants in Week 6, losses to Jaguars and Patriots in Weeks 5 and 7

• Injuries on defense are partially to blame for struggles

  • Matt Milano, Tre’Davious White, and Daquan Jones are on IR

  • Surrendering 5.5 yards per play across last three games. Rank 26th in that category this season (5.6)

• Offense is coming out gates slow and playing from behind

  • Have not scored in first quarter over last three games

  • Have not been able to control clock- average time of possession is 27:32 in last three games

What’s the Play?

Neither one of these offenses has been able to execute at a high level recently, and although both defenses certainly have their flaws, we agree with our model that we are in store for another low scoring contest.

One thing that has flown under the radar this season is Tampa Bay and Buffalo’s red zone defense. the Buccaneers are surrendering a TD on just 22.22% of red zone drives, the best mark in the NFL, and Buffalo isn’t far behind at 40%. In the last three weeks we’ve seen that percentage drop to 11.11% for Tampa Bay and 35.71% for Buffalo.

Neither team surrenders touchdowns, and neither Baker Mayfield nor Josh Allen has been able to find the end zone consistently enough over the last three weeks to make us think anything will change tonight. We’ll take the under.

The Play: Under 43.5 (-110)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Buffalo Bills- 4-3 overall this season, 3-1 as the home team

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Tampa Bay Buccaneers- Under is 5-1 this season with average total of 34.5 points

• Buffalo Bills- Under is 4-3 overall this season, 2-0 in primetime with average total of 30.5 points

Spread Trends ➕➖

• Tampa Bay Buccaneers- 3-3 against the spread (ATS) this season, 2-0 ATS as the away team

🤕 Brock Purdy enters concussion protocol. San Francisco 49ers' quarterback Brock Purdy is in concussion protocol after experiencing symptoms following the 49ers Monday night loss to the Minnesota Vikings. While there's no definitive ruling on his availability for Sunday's game against the Cincinnati Bengals, the chances of him clearing concussion protocols in time seem slim. If Purdy can't play, Sam Darnold, who joined the 49ers this offseason, will start in his place, with the hope of ending the Bengals’ two-game win streak.

💪 Frank Clark returns to Seattle. The Seattle Seahawks have re-signed Frank Clark, who began his NFL career with the Seahawks, to bolster their thin edge defense. Despite a different defensive scheme than his previous stint, Clark is expected to play as an outside linebacker and edge rusher in their 3-4 and 4-3 fronts. His signing comes after the Seahawks lost Uchenna Nwosu to a pec injury, and they plan to integrate Clark into their rotation alongside other young players like Boye Mafe, Darrell Taylor, and Derick Hall.

After 12 NBA games yesterday, the league has given us just two games to bet on today. Our model’s predictions for tonight’s matchups can be found below.

Phoenix Suns @ Los Angeles Lakers

Model Predicts- Lakers ML, UNDER 223.5, Suns +6

The Phoenix Suns and Los Angeles Lakers will square off on Thursday night in what will be the second game of the 2023-24 season for both squads.

Phoenix enters tonight’s matchup fresh off a win against the Golden State Warriors, an impressive one considering Bradley Beal did not suit up. Meanwhile, L.A. suffered a 119-107 loss at the hands of the Denver Nuggets to begin its season.

Bradley Beal and Devin Booker are unlikely to suit up tonight, yet our model thinks the Suns can keep things close in a low-scoring contest. Let’s dive into why that is.

Phoenix Suns

• Impressive win over Golden State to begin season

  • Won 108-104 without Bradley Beal. Booker posted 32 points, 6 rebounds, and 8 assists

  • Solid production from bench, which never happened last season- 27 points amongst five players

• Perimeter defense was the key to victory

  • Held Golden State to 23% shooting from three

  • That is too be expected from Suns- held opponents to 34.7% from three last season after trading for Durant

• Will likely be without Bradley Beal and Devin Booker

  • Our model says they are worth a combined 4.28 points on the spread

Los Angeles Lakers

• Defense didn’t provide much resistance against Denver

  • Surrendered 119 points. Held Nuggets to shooting 53% overall and 41% from three

  • 125.3 Defensive Rating, per NBA.com

  • Immediately were playing from behind- outscored 34-20 in first quarter

• However, was one of best defenses at home last season

  • 111.2 Defensive Rating at home. 115.1 on the road

  • Shift in venue should allow for bounce back performance

• Dealing with injuries to some role players

  • Jarred Vanderbilt (OUT), Jalen Hood-Schifino (OUT), Cam Reddish (Game Time Decision)

What’s the Play?

Our model is showing razor-thin margins for the over/under in both of tonight’s matchups, but we think this is a good spot to back the under.

The absence of Beal didn’t prove to be all that significant earlier this week, but sidelining Booker at the same time will definitely cause some problems. Booker was relied on heavily for points down the stretch in a comeback effort, and his eight assists led the team by a long shot, as no other Suns player had more than three.

The Suns’ depth is going to be tested here against what has been a solid defense at home in the past. We’ll take the under in this spot.

The Play: Under 223.5 (-110)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Milwaukee Bucks- 59-28 overall last season, 33-11 at home (including postseason)

• Los Angeles Lakers- 30-20 as the home team last season (including playoffs)

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Philadelphia 76ers- Over was 44-36-2 in 2022-23 regular season, 25-21-1 as the away team (including playoffs)

Spread Trends ➕➖

• Phoenix Suns- 1-0 against the spread (ATS) this season, 42-38-2 ATS in 2022-23 regular season

⭐️ All-Star Game to return to original format. The NBA All-Star Game will revert to its original format for the upcoming season in Indianapolis, featuring Eastern and Western Conference teams with 12 players from each conference. This change marks the end of the All-Star draft that had been used in the past six seasons, as the team captains will now be chosen by fan voting from the five starters on each team. The game will also return to a traditional 12-minute, four-quarter contest, eliminating the target score used in the fourth quarter.

😬 Mavericks spoil Wembanyama’s debut. Victor Wembanyama made his debut for the San Antonio Spurs against the Dallas Mavericks last night, receiving praise from stars like Luka Doncic for his remarkable athleticism and agility for his towering height. Despite a modest start, Wembanyama showcased his skills, contributing 15 points, five rebounds, two assists, and a block in just over 23 minutes. However, Dallas still emerged victorious, with Luka Doncic leading the charge after posting 33 points, 13 rebounds, and 10 assists.

The inconsistency of NHL scheduling is showing its true colors today, with the league scheduling 11 games today after playing just one yesterday. All of our model’s predictions can be found below.

San Jose Sharks @ Tampa Bay Lightning

Model Predicts- Lightning ML , OVER 6.5, Lightning -1.5

The San Jose Sharks will continue their five-game road trip on Thursday with a stop in Tampa bay to take on the Lightning.

The Sharks have yet to pick u pa win this season, entering tonight with a 0-5-1 record after a 3-1 loss to the Florida Panthers earlier in the week. Tampa bay is better at 3-2-2, but has still been far from impressive.

Our model predicts Tampa Bay to win this game without much resistance, but our model is showing far more value on the over in this spot. Let’s take a look at why that is.

San Jose Sharks

• Offense has been far from impressive to begin season

  • Rank 32nd in GF/60 in 5-on-5 situations (1.06). xGF/60 in 5-on-5 sits at just 2.02 (Natural Stat Trick)

  • 24.5 shots on goal per game is second-fewest in NHL

• Unsurprisingly, defense hasn’t been great either

  • Surrendering 3.67 goals and 38.5 shots on goal per game.

  • Struggle killing penalties- allow goal on 26.1% of opponent power plays

  • 16.79 high-danger chances against per 60 minutes (HDCA/60) in 5-on-5 situations

• Starting goalie- Kaapo Kahkonen

  • +0.7 Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx)

  • Ranks 57th in Save % in 5-on-5 (.877)

Tampa Bay Lightning

• Shaky defense can be blamed for poor start

  • Surrendering 3.43 goals per game. Rank 29th in xGA/60 in 5-on-5 (3.03)

  • 12.23 HDCA/60 in 5-on-5 situations ranks in bottom ten if NHL

• Struggling offense hasn’t helped close the gap

  • Rank 29th in xGF/60 in 5-on-5, 26th in shots on goal per game

  • Only bright spot is power play efficiency- score goal on 33.3% of PP opportunities

• Starting goalie- Jonas Johannsson

  • +4.4 GSAx- 8th best in NHL

  • .917 Save % and .887 high-danger Save % in 5-on-5

What’s the Play?

These offenses have been two of the worst in the NHL this season. However, we agree with our model that this is a solid spot to back the over.

Several metrics indicate that the Sharks may not even have a defense out on the ice. Opponents are generating far too much pressure close to the net for any goalie to stand a chance, and allowing 38.5 shots on goal per game will likely open up the floodgate for a Tampa Bay offense that is due for some positive regression.

Tampa Bay is certainly no showstopper on defense either, so we expect the Sharks to get on the board tonight as well. That should allow for a high-scoring contest.

The Play: Over 6.5 (-115)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Colorado Avalanche- 6-0-0 overall this season, 4-0-0 as the away team

• New York Rangers- 4-2-0 overall this season, 3-1-0 as the away team

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Tampa Bay Lightning- Over is 3-2-2 this season with average total of 6.71

• Ottawa Senators- Over is 5-0-1 this season with average total of 7.67

Puck Line Trends ➕➖

• Boston Bruins- Puck line is 5-1 this season

• Detroit Red Wings- Puck line is 6-1 this season

💪 Capitals secure first regulation win of season. The Washington Capitals secured their first significant victory of the season in a thrilling high-scoring game against the New Jersey Devils. Washington dominated the first period with goals from Anthony Mantha, Dylan Strome, and Sonny Milano, taking a 3-0 lead, but the Devils mounted a comeback by scoring four goals in the second to take the lead. Dylan Strome and Connor McMichael scored to regain the lead for Washington, with Alex Ovechkin adding an empty-netter to seal the win.

✂️ NHL cuts in-person draft. NHL teams have voted in favor of decentralizing the NHL Entry Draft, marking the end of the tradition of an in-person draft event. This change is expected to be implemented for the 2025 draft, meaning next summer will be the last in-person event. The decision was influenced by several factors, including the shortened gap between the draft and free agency, reduced travel costs for teams, and concerns about plans being overheard due to close proximity of tables at in-person drafts.