In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

There were plenty of predictions to go around yesterday across the NCAA and MLB, with our model focusing in on two of those predictions in our Featured Matchups. Those predictions went 1-1 overall, and you can see how each of the models performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 16-1

Over/Under Predictions: 7-8-2

Spread Predictions: 6-10-1

Featured Matchup: 0-1

Money Line Predictions: 4-6

Over/Under Predictions: 5-5

Run Line Predictions: 6-4

Featured Matchup: 1-0

There are 13 NFL games scheduled to take place throughout this afternoon and evening, and our model has predictions for all 13 matchups. You can see all of those predictions below.

Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Model Predicts- Jaguars ML, UNDER 43.5, Texans +7.5

The Houston Texans will travel to the Sunshine State on Sunday to take on the the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Houston enters today’s matchup with an 0-2 record, falling to the Ravens in Week 1 and the Colts in Week 2. Meanwhile, Jacksonville is 1-1, beating the Colts in Week 1 but coming up short against the Chiefs last week.

Divisional battles are always exciting and tend be close on the scoreboard, and our model believes that Houston will make that the case today. Let’s dive into why that is and see our model’s best bet for today’s matchup

Houston Texans

• C.J. Stroud dominating in pass game

  • 5th in NFL in passing yards- 626 total, 313 per game

• Have several solid pass catching options

  • Deep threat in Nico Collins- 17.4 yards per reception, 6 catches of 20+ yards and one catch of 30+ yards

  • Tank Dell and Robert Woods are next in line- each average at least 10.5 yards per reception and have more than 100 receiving yards for year

• Struggle to score in red zone- rank last in red zone TD % (16.67%)

• Defense struggles to stop run- allow 188 rush yards per game

• Good at generating pressure- 2nd in pass rush win rate

Jacksonville Jaguars

• Offense has been far from impressive so far

  • 31 points in Week 1, only nine in Week 2

  • Rank 31st in EPA per play- only ahead of Steelers

  • Poor on third down- 25% third down conversion rate is lowest in NFL

  • 21st in pass block win rate, 29th in run block win rate

• Defense has struggled in pass game and generating pressure

  • 25th in pass yards allowed per game (256.5)

  • Allow large chunks of yardage through the air- 9.7 yards per completion

  • Rank 18th in sacks and 31st in pass rush win rate through two weeks

What’s the Play?

While C.J. Stroud has only played two games at the NFL level, he has looked the part through that sample size, and that gives us enough confidence to back the Texans on the spread.

Jacksonville has failed to generate any pressure on opposing QB’s through two weeks, which has given their opponents plenty of time to gash their secondary. That will pose a problem this afternoon, as Stroud has shown his willingness to throw the ball and pick up yardage in large chunks.

Houston has struggled with the run, but its pass rush should take care of a weaker offensive line that ranks in the bottom 10 of the NFL this season. Our model predicts the Jags will win by roughly six points, so we’ll take the young Texans on the spread as an underdog.

The Play: Texans +7.5 (-115)

Money Line Trends💰

• Cleveland Browns- 1-1 overall this season, 11-7 in last 18 home games

• Miami Dolphins- 2-0 overall this season, 11-9 in last 20 games

• Pittsburgh Steelers- 1-1 overall this season, 4-4 as a road underdog last season

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Tennessee Titans- Under is 1-1 this season, 7-3 in last 10 road games

• Indianapolis Colts- Over is 2-0 this season, 5-5 in last 10 road games

Spread Trends ➕➖

• Cleveland Browns- 1-1 against the spread (ATS) this season, 5-4 ATS in last nine home games

• Jacksonville Jaguars- Trevor Lawrence is 0-4 ATS as a home favorite in his career

For additional Week 3 NFL bets, check out our analysis with the host of Chuck’s Chat on Youtube.

They also have a newsletter that dives into their best bets for the NFL and NCAA every weekend. You can sign up by clicking below⬇️

🤕 Info emerges about Nick Chubb’s injury. Cleveland Browns' running back Nick Chubb's knee injury is not career-ending, as initial tests indicate he tore only his left MCL, with his ACL being stretched but not torn, according to sources. Surgery is expected this week, with hopes that no further damage is discovered, and Chubb's recovery is projected to take six to eight months. Despite the setback, there is confidence in Chubb's ability to make a swift return, and the Browns have decided to rally behind him rather than seeking immediate replacements after the injury.

🐬 Jaylen Waddle sidelined against Broncos. Dolphins wide receiver Jaylen Waddle will not play in Sunday's home game against the Denver Broncos after spending the week in the NFL's concussion protocol. Initially listed as questionable and having practiced in a limited capacity on Friday, he was downgraded on Saturday. In his absence, the Dolphins elevated wide receiver Robbie Chosen from the practice squad, who will be active for the game against Denver.

❓Joe Burrow questionable for MNF. Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow's status for Monday's game against the Los Angeles Rams remains uncertain, with Coach Zac Taylor suggesting it could be a game-time decision as he recovers from a right calf injury. HOwever, it appears that Cincinnati is preparing for his absence, signing former quarterback AJ McCarron to the practice squad for added depth. If Burrow is unable to play, Jake Browning is poised to make his first NFL start, having earned the backup quarterback role during training camp.

There are 16 MLB games scheduled to take place throughout this afternoon and evening. However, due to lines being unavailable at the time the model was run, our model has predictions for 12 of today’s matchups.

Milwaukee Brewers @ Miami Marlins

Model Predicts- Brewers ML, OVER 7, Marlins +1.5

The Milwaukee Brewers and Miami Marlins will close out their three-game series on Sunday afternoon.

Milwaukee started off the series with a massive victory, beating Miami by a score of 16-1 after scoring 12 runs in the second inning. However, Miami got its revenge yesterday, defeating Milwaukee 5-4.

A lot is still on the line in this series, with Milwaukee potentially clinching a division title and Miami getting closer to a wild card spot. Let’s dive into this matchup and see what our model’s best bet is.

Milwaukee Brewers

• One of hottest offenses in MLB this month

  • Rank 9th in wRC+ (111), 5th in BABIP (.321), 7th in OPS (.779), per FanGraphs

  • Getting on base at high clip- 10.3% walk rate and .345 on base % (2nd in MLB this month)

• Offense has gotten even better over last 10 games

  • wRC+ and OPS have risen to 122 and .833, respectively

  • Averaging 6.00 runs per game

  • Showing much more power- 15 of 24 home runs hit in September have come in this span of games

• Freddy Peralta (12-9 record, 3.71 ERA) will get start on mound

  • Elite arm- ranks in top 7% in Strikeout rate (31.1%) and Whiff rate (33.8%)

  • 3.22 xERA shows more improvement is on the way

  • However, has allowed 1.55 home runs per nine innings over last five starts. Ranks in bottom 35% of MLB in Barrel rate (8.6%)

Miami Marlins

• Just as hot at the plate when compared to Milwaukee

  • Rank 13th in wRC+ (121), 3rd in BABIP (.331), and 5th in OPS (.816) in last 10 games

    • 10.4% walk rate and .362 on base % in that time

    • 13 total home runs has led to 5.40 runs per game and +4 run differential

• Edward Cabrera (6-7 record, 4.35 ERA) will get start on mound

  • Another elite arm- ranks in top 20% in Strikeout (28.0%) and Whiff rate (31.8%)

  • Struggles a ton with his control- 15.5% walk rate ranks in bottom 1% of MLB this season,

  • Surrendered 15 walks in last 17.0 innings, yet allowed just five runs in that timeframe

What’s the Play?

Two of the league’s best strikeout pitchers will take the mound today, which explains why the total for this game sits at just seven runs. However, we agree with our model that these teams have a chance to go over that total this afternoon.

Both Milwaukee and Miami have shown they can launch a few baseball’s over the fence. That puts Peralta, who is vulnerable to the barrel, and Cabrera, who gives away free bases left and right, in a position to allow several hitters to make a trip around the bases.

Yesterday’s total before first pitch was also seven runs, and nine runs were scored. Our model projects eight runs to be scored today, so we’ll back the over.

The Play: Over 7 (-120)

Money Line Trends💰

• Milwaukee Brewers- 88-67 overall this season, 7-3 in last 10 games

• Seattle Mariners- 84-70 overall this season, 29-15 against division opponents (Play AL West rival Texas today)

• Philadelphia Phillies- 86-69 overall this season, 46-31 as the home team

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Cleveland Guardians- Under is 88-65-3 this season, 50-27-1 as the home team

• Chicago Cubs- Over is 77-73-5 this season, 40-36-4 as the home team

Run Line Trends ➕➖

• Seattle Mariners- Run line is 26-13 this season as a road underdog

Various injuries around the league. See full injury report at MLB.com.

🤕 Marlins shut down Sandy Alcantara. Miami Marlins' NL Cy Young Award winner, Sandy Alcantara, has seen his season come to an end due to a recent setback in his rehabilitation from a forearm flexor strain. This development raises concerns about his availability for the Marlins next year, as he experienced forearm tightness after a rehab outing with Triple-A Jacksonville. Alcantara, who had hoped to rejoin the team as they contend for an NL wild card spot, expressed his frustration and disappointment, mentioning the possibility of surgery as he plans to meet with the team's management to determine the next steps.

💪Pirates pull off miraculous comeback in Cincinnati. The Pittsburgh Pirates found themselves in a massive hole on Saturday, going down 9-0 after just three innings in their matchup with the Cincinnati Reds. Pittsburgh would eventually get on the board in the top of the fourth innings, but it wasn’t until the sixth inning that the offense really got going. The Pirates tacked on 12 more runs from innings 5-7, jumping out to a 13-9 lead and going on to win 13-12. The collapse moved Cincinnati’s record to 79-77, and now the Reds sit 2.5 games back of a wild card spot.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- The Oregon Ducks came within minutes of shutting out Colorado yesterday afternoon. When was the last time Oregon shut out a Pac 12 team, and which team did it come against?

Question #2- Before attending the University of Oklahoma, Baker Mayfield played for what other Big 12 school?

Question #3- The Milwaukee Bucks traded Stephon Marbury to the Minnesota Timberwolves for what player during the 1996 NBA Draft?

Anyone know what has happened on September 24th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On September 24th…

1957- The Brooklyn Dodgers play their last game at Ebbets Field, defeating the Pirates 2-0. Owner Walter O’Malley would move the team to Los Angeles the following season, ending what was a 60-year run in Brooklyn. The Dodgers remain in Los Angeles today, winning the World Series six time since relocating.

1979- MLB legend Pete Rose records 200 hits in a season for the 10th time in his career. The achievement came in Rose’s first season with the Philadelphia Phillies, the team he would record 826 hits with from 1979-1983. Rose would end his career with 4,256 hits, the most in MLB history.

1992- Toronto Blue Jays player Dave Winfield becomes the oldest player in MLB history to record 100 RBIs in a season. Winfield would end the 1992 season with 108 RBIs, his 8th 100 RBI season in his career and first since 1988. He would end his 22-year MLB career with 1,833 RBIs, which currently ranks 19th in MLB history.

1. 2012 (Arizona State)

2. Texas Tech

3. Ray Allen