In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

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There were plenty of model predictions to go around yesterday across the MLB, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions in our Featured Matchup. That prediction went 0-1 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 7-7

Over/Under Predictions: 6-8

Run Line Predictions: 6-8

Featured Matchup: 0-1

One NBA game is scheduled to take place today. Our model’s predictions for that matchup can be found below.

Dallas Mavericks @ Boston Celtics

Model Predicts- Celtics ML, OVER 215, Mavericks +6.5

The Dallas Mavericks and Boston Celtics will kick off the final series of the 2023-24 NBA season on Thursday, squaring off in Game 1 of the NBA Finals at TD Garden.

Dallas ended the regular season as the No.5 seed in the Western Conference, yet reached the NBA Finals by taking down the Los Angeles Clippers, Oklahoma City Thunder, and Minnesota Timberwolves, all three of which were the No.4 seed or better. Meanwhile, Boston had a much easier path after earning the No.1 seed in the Eastern Conference, beating the Miami Heat, Cleveland Cavaliers, and Indiana Pacers to reach the Finals.

Our model expects Boston to jump out to a 1-0 series lead tonight, but it also projects Dallas to put up a fight. Let’s take a look at why that is.

Dallas Mavericks

• Reached Finals as No.5 seed in Western Conference

  • Beat Clippers in six games, Thunder in six games, and Timberwolves in five games

  • +4.1 Net Rating in postseason- 4th best among playoff teams

• Strength has been closing out games in second half

  • 1st half- +0.7 Net Rating. Averaging 52.9 points while shooting 46.7% overall and 33.8% from three

  • 2nd half- +7.6 Net Rating. Averaging 55.1 points while shooting 47.5% overall and 40.7% from three

• Injuries- Luka Doncic and Olivier-Maxence Prosper are questionable. Greg Brown is OUT

Boston Celtics

• Reached Finals as No.1 seed in Eastern Conference

  • Beat Heat in five games, Cavaliers in five games, and Pacers in four games

  • +10.8 Net Rating in postseason- 1st among playoff teams

• Didn’t face much competition until series with Pacers

  • Vs Heat- +17.0 Net Rating. Average margin of victory was 15.6 points

  • Vs Cavaliers- +8.5 Net Rating. Average margin of victory was 7.2 points

  • Vs Pacers- +6.3 Net Rating. Average margin of victory was 6.8 points and three of four wins were by five points or fewer

• Injuries- No players listed on injury report

What’s the Play?

Our model gives Boston a 66.05% chance to win tonight’s game, which is rather sizable at this point in the season. However, we think this is a solid spot to back Dallas on the spread as an underdog.

Dallas was from being a strong defensive team during the regular season, ranking 18th in Defensive Rating at 114.9. However, during the postseason we have seen that rating improve to 111.3, only 1.1 points worse than Boston despite facing an exponentially tougher stretch of opponents. That improvement is largely due to the fact that Dallas is holding its opponents to shooting just 44.5% from the floor in the postseason, the 4th best mark among playoff teams.

The increased production on the defensive end of the floor is going to go a long way in Game 1, especially as the Celtics find a way to integrate Kristaps Porzingis back into the lineup after missing a majority of the postseason.

Additionally, Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving are capable of matching, and exceeding, any scoring totals from Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, and Dallas’ bench averages nearly 5.0 more points per game than Boston’s. The Mavericks have all the firepower necessary at the top and some weapons on the bench to keep things interesting, so we’ll take the Mavericks on the spread here.

The Play: Mavericks +6.5 (-110)

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Money Line Trends 💰

• Boston Celtics- 76-20 overall this season, 43-6 as the home team, and 12-2 in the postseason

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Dallas Mavericks- Over is 9-8 overall in postseason

• Boston Celtics- Over is 8-6 overall in postseason

Spread Trends ➕➖

• Dallas Mavericks- 59-40 against the spread (ATS) this season, 34-16 ATS as the away team, and 11-6 ATS in postseason

👀 Lakers eyeing up JJ Redick for head coach opening. Former NBA player and ESPN commentator JJ Redick is the leading candidate for the Los Angeles Lakers' head coaching position. The Lakers are also considering New Orleans Pelicans associate head coach James Borrego, and have interviewed several other assistants, but are not rushing their decision. Redick, who first met with the Lakers in early May, is seen as having significant coaching potential, and there have been no contract discussions yet.

🤕 Potential top-10 draft pick suffers torn ACL. Serbian draft prospect Nikola Topic suffered a partially torn ACL, according to his agent. Initially injuring his knee in January and aggravating it during an April playoff game, Topic will now travel to the U.S. for evaluation by NBA team doctors. Once ranked as high as No. 4 on ESPN's big board, the 18-year-old point guard's draft stock has fallen, but he remains a potential top-10 pick with excellent passing vision and a 6-foot-7 frame.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- What NFL franchise has never had a quarterback throw for 4,000 yards in a single season?

Question #2- Cal Ripken holds the MLB record for most consecutive games played. How many consecutive games did Ripken play?

Question #3- Chucky Brown, Tim Jackson, Tony Massenburg, and Joe Smith, all hold the NBA record for most teams played for (minimum of one game). How many franchises did those four players suit up for in their career?

Anyone know what has happened on June 6th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On June 6th…

1937- The Philadelphia Phillies and St. Louis Cardinals play a matchup that would eventually be forfeited. The game was the second of a doubleheader, the start of which was pushed back due to a rain delay, and St. Louis jumped out to an early 8-2 lead in the fourth inning. However, the delay forced the game to approach what was known as the “7 o’clock closing law”, and since the matchup never reached five innings all stats and a win for St. Louis was wiped out.

1976- The Boston Celtics defeat the Phoenix Suns in six games to win the 30th NBA Championship. Boston finished the 1975-76 regular season with 54 wins, five more wins than the next closest team in the Eastern Conference, and the NBA Finals win gave Boston its 13th title in franchise history. Jo Jo White was named series MVP, one of seven future Hall of Famers to play in the series.

1990- Detroit Tigers slugger Cecil Fielder hits three home runs in one game in a 6-4 victory over the Cleveland Indians. The performance marked the second time that season that Fielder, who is the father of former MLB player Prince Fielder, hit three home runs in the same game, becoming the ninth player in MLB history to do so. After the game Fielder had 22 home runs and 53 RBIs to his name, both of which led the MLB at the time.

1. Chicago Bears

2. 2,632

3. 12