In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

There were plenty of model predictions to go around yesterday across the NFL, NBA, and MLB, with our model focusing in on three of those predictions in our Featured Matchups. Those predictions went 1-2 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model’s performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 0-1

Over/Under Predictions: 0-1

Spread Predictions: 0-1

Featured Matchup: 1-0

Money Line Predictions: 2-2

Over/Under Predictions: 2-2

Spread Predictions: 1-3

Featured Matchup: 0-1

Money Line Predictions: 9-3

Over/Under Predictions: 5-6-1

Puck Line Predictions: 6-6

Featured Matchup: 1-0

The NBA in-season tournament begins this evening, kicking off with seven games. You can find our model’s predictions for all seven matchups below.

Cleveland Cavaliers @ Indiana Pacers

Model Predicts- Cavaliers ML, UNDER 223.5, Cavaliers -3

The Cleveland Cavaliers and Indiana Pacers will square off in the first game of the NBA’s in-season tournament on Friday night.

Neither team has gotten off to an ideal start through two weeks, with Cleveland entering tonight’s matchup at 2-3 and in 9th in the Eastern Conference, while Indiana sits at 2-2.

Injuries are going to play a key role here, but our model still sees some value on Cleveland and believes the Cavaliers can cover the spread on the road. Let’s take a look at why that is.

Cleveland Cavaliers

• Injuries have derailed the team early on

  • Darius Garland, Jarrett Allen, Donovan Mitchell, and Caris LeVert have all missed time this season

    • Garland and Allen are questionable for tonight

• Those absences have killed the offense

  • Rank 27th in Offensive Rating (104.4)

  • Shooting 42.7% from the floor overall and 33.3% from three, per NBA.com

• Defense is still holding its ground

  • Rank in top-10 in opponent points in paint per game (47.6) and opponent FG% (44.7%)

Indiana Pacers

• Defense is nonexistent

  • Rank 30th in Defensive Rating (119.3). Just surrendered 155 points to Celtics earlier this week

  • Was team’s biggest flaw last season too- 117.3 Defensive Rating

• Biggest weakness is on the perimeter, but also struggle inside

  • Allowing opponents to shoot 43.9% from three this season

  • Rank 30th in opponent points per game in paint (58)

• Two key injuries tonight

  • Jalen Smith, Tyrese Haliburton

What’s the Play?

Cleveland and Indiana have faced one another already this season, a game that ended in a 12-point victory for the Pacers. However, Cleveland was without Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland, and Jarrett Allen in that matchup while Indiana was fully healthy, so we’ll take the Cavs to get revenge here.

The potential absence of Haliburton and Smith is huge. Haliburton is the Pacers’ best perimeter defender and ball handler, and Smith is contributing 11.3 points per game this season. We saw on Wednesday what can happen when both of those guys miss time, as the Celtics shot 57% from the floor and behind the arc, as well as out-rebounded Indiana 57-31.

We wouldn’t mind waiting to hear the status of Garland and Allen, but this is a great spot for Donovan Mitchell and crew to pile on the points against a consistently bad defense.

The Play: Cavaliers -3 (-110)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Cleveland Cavaliers- 2-3 overall this season, 2-0 as the away team

• Denver Nuggets- 4-1 overall this season, 2-0 as the home team

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Brooklyn Nets- Over is 3-1 this season, 2-1 as the away team

• Denver Nuggets- Under is 5-0 this season with average total of 219.0 at home

Spread Trends ➕➖

• Oklahoma City Thunder- 3-2 against the spread (ATS) this season, 2-1 ATS as the home team

• Brooklyn Nets- 4-0 ATS this season, 3-0 ATS as the away team

⭐️ Wembanyama shines in breakout game. The San Antonio Spurs were struggling in the fourth quarter of last night’s game, losing a 27-point lead to the Phoenix Suns. However, rookie Victor Wembanyama stepped up late, scoring an impressive 38 points and helping the Spurs secure a 132-121 victory. The 19-year-old phenom finished as the game’s highest-scorer while shooting 15-26 from the field, and now San Antonio owns a 3-2 record and sits in 7th in the Western Conference.

🏆️ NBA in-season tournament begins today. The 2023-24 NBA season has kicked off, and this year, a new In-Season Tournament has been introduced. The tournament winner will claim the NBA Cup, with 14 group games and all seven knockout-round games televised nationally in the US and available on NBA League Pass for international viewers. The tournament begins tonight at 7pm Eastern, with group stage games impacting regular season standings, and the knockout rounds feature single-elimination matches culminating in the final at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.

The inconsistency of NHL scheduling continues today, as just two games are set to take place. You can see our model’s predictions for both matchups below.

New Jersey Devils @ St. Louis Blues

Model Predicts- Devils ML, OVER 6.5, Blues +1.5

The New Jersey Devils will play their second game in two nights on Friday, traveling to St. Louis to take on the Blues.

New Jersey enters tonight’s matchup red hot, winning three consecutive games, one against the Sabres and two against the Wild. The Devils now own a 6-2-1 record, while St. Louis sits at 3-4-1.

There isn’t a whole lot of value in this game, but one of our model’s predictions lines up with a trend that has occurred in 100% of Devils’ games this season. Let’s take a look at what that is.

New Jersey Devils

• Offense has struggled to score in 5-on-5 situations

  • Rank 23rd in GF/60 in 5-on-5 (2.15), per Natural Stat Trick

  • However, xGF/60 sits much higher at 2.81, showing more goals are coming

  • Doing most of damage on power play- Have scored on 44.7% of power play chances (1st in NHL)

• Defense is shaky

  • Rank 28th in GA/60 in 5-on-5 (3.03)

  • Have allowed average of 5 goals per game in second game of back-to-back this season

• Starting goalie- Akira Schmid

  • Ranks 63rd in Save % in 5-on-5 (.876), 54th in Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) with -1.3

St. Louis Blues

• Offense is brutal to watch this season

  • Have scored 15 goals in eight games

  • Rank 32nd in shots on goal per game and Expected Goals For per 60 minutes (xGF/60) in 5-on-5 (1.99)

• Defense can easily be caught slipping

  • Allow 12.50 high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes (HDCA/60) in 5-on-5

  • Rank 21st in xGA/60 (2.78), 23rd in shots on goal allowed per game (32.5)

• Starting goalie- Jordan Binnington

  • .925 Save % and .805 High-Danger Save % in 5-on-5

  • +1.8 GSAx

What’s the Play?

Backing the over with the Blues on the ice is a tough sell, but the over is a perfect 9-0 in Devils’ games this season and we agree with our model that goals will be scored by both teams.

There is no doubt that the Devils will find the back of the net, even with tired legs. St. Louis surrenders far too much pressure near the crease and is due for defensive regression, a recipe for disaster against a high-powered offense that can erupt at any moment.

However, the Devils’ defense has been poor all year, and in two back-to-backs they have allowed opponents to score 10 goals. That opens up the door for the Blues to get on the board here, which should provide enough support to get this total to seven.

The Play: Over 6.5 (-120)

Money Line Trends 💰

• New Jersey Devils- 6-2-1 overall this season, 3-0-0 as the away team

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Buffalo Sabres- Under is 6-3-1 this season with average total of 6.10 goals

• New Jersey Devils- Over is 9-0 this season with average total of 7.89 goals

Puck Line Trends ➕➖

• Philadelphia Flyers- Puck line is 7-3 this season

🤯 Canucks score 10 goals in win over Sharks. The Vancouver Canucks dominated the San Jose Sharks with a resounding 10-1 victory, securing their fifth win in six games. Quinn Hughes led the charge with a goal and four assists, tying the franchise's single-game record for points by a defenseman. Meanwhile, the Sharks suffered their 10th consecutive loss to start the season, coming dangerously close to tying the NHL record for most defeats at the beginning of a season, currently held by the New York Rangers and the Arizona Coyotes.

🤕 Adam fox suffers injury in win over Carolina. New York Rangers' defenseman Adam Fox suffered a lower-body injury in the team’s 2-1 win against the Carolina Hurricanes last night. The injury occurred when Fox collided with Hurricanes forward Sebastian Aho in the first period, forcing him to sit out the rest of the game. Filip Chytil, a forward for the Rangers, also left the game in the second period due to an upper-body injury, and both players will be evaluated on Friday.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- What former boxer now sells grills named after himself?

Question #2- What school did Steve Nash attend prior to being selected with the 15th overall pick in the 1996 NBA Draft?

Question #3- Who is the only player in NFL history to start a season with eight straight 100-yard receiving games?

Anyone know what has happened on November 3rd throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On November 3rd…

1996- Jerry Rice becomes the first player in NFL history to record 1,000 career receptions. Rice accomplished the feat in a 24-17 win over the New Orleans saints, hauling in three passes for 45 yards and a touchdown. Rice would finish his career with 1,549 receptions, the most in NFL history.

2001- San Antonio Spurs guard Steve Smith plays his first game against his former team, the Portland Trail Blazers. Smith’s time with the Blazers was short, suiting up for Portland from 1999-2001 before being traded for Derek Anderson and Steve Kerr. However, Smith clearly held a grudge, setting a new NBA record for the most three-pointers made without a miss (8) on his way to 36 points.

2013- Nick Foles throws seven touchdown passes in a 49-20 win over the Oakland Raiders. Foles became just the 7th player in NFL history to throw for seven TDs in a game, completing 22 of his 28 pass attempts for 406 yards in the process. He would finish the season with 27 TD passes, the 8th most in the NFL that season.

1. George Foreman

2. Santa Clara University

3. Adam Thielen