In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

Additional Model Predictions ⬇️

NBA Model Predictions- Click Here

NHL Model Predictions- Click Here

NCAAB Model Predictions- Click Here

There were plenty of model predictions to go around yesterday across the NBA, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions in our Featured Matchup. That prediction went 0-1 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 6-6

Over/Under Predictions: 5-7

Spread Predictions: 5-7

Featured Matchup: 0-1

13 MLB games are scheduled to take place today. Our model’s predictions for all 13 matchups can be found below.

Washington Nationals @ Cincinnati Reds

Model Predicts- Reds ML, OVER 9, Nationals +1.5

The Washington Nationals will begin their 2024 season on Thursday, hitting the road to take on the Cincinnati Red for a three-game series.

Washington is coming off season to forget in 2022, posting a 71-91 record and finishing in last place in the National League East, a whole 33.0 games behind the Atlanta Braves in first. Meanwhile, Cincinnati generated some much-needed momentum in 2022, ending the year with an 82-80 record and narrowly missing the postseason.

It’s difficult to gauge how well teams will play in the first series of the season, but our model expects the Reds to win this afternoon in a high-scoring game. Let’s take a look at why that is.

Washington Nationals

• Struggled hitting the ball last season

  • Posted 92 wRC+ (23rd in MLB), .293 BABIP (19th in MLB)

  • However, did not strikeout often- 18.9% strikeout rate ranked 2nd in MLB

• Offensive struggles are due to lack of depth

  • CJ Abrams and Lane Thomas are best hitters

    • Thomas- 105 wRC+ and .325 BABIP last season (FanGraphs)

• Starting pitcher- Josiah Gray

  • All-Star last season. Posted 3.91 ERA

  • Severely outperformed expectations- xERA last season was 5.03

Cincinnati Reds

• One of biggest surprises of 2023 season

  • 82-80 record was improvement from 62-100 record in 2022

  • Young players were productive- Will Benson (128 wRC+), Spencer Steer (118 wRC+). Elly De La Cruz was streaky, but still a spark

• Overall, had mixed results at the plate

  • Bottom-ten team in strikeout rate (24.2%). Ranked in top-ten in BABIP (.306) and walk rate (9.0%)

• Starting pitcher- Frankie Montas

  • Missed most of last season- threw 31 pitches

  • Looked rusty in spring training- 6.11 ERA and 1.48 WHIP

What’s the Play?

Opening Day can be a bloodbath for sports bettors, but we agree with our model that this is a good spot to back the over.

Both of Washington and Cincinnati had some issues at the plate last year, but both also did some things very well. Although it didn’t always result in runs, Washington was tremendous when it came to making contact and avoiding strikeouts, a perfect match against Frankie Montas, who as previously mentioned struggled during spring training and barely threw last season.

Cincinnati is in a good spot to get things going at the plate as well. Although Josiah Gray was an All-Star, a 1.12 run gap between his real ERA and xERA shows that he was quite lucky on the mound. Additionally, Gray ranked in the bottom 24% of the majors in ground ball rate and walk rate (Baseball Savant), further hinting that we could see the Reds get guys on base in bunches.

Everyone is still knocking off the rust, but this is a great spot to fade both starting pitchers. We’ll take the over for the first bet of the MLB season.

The Play: Over 9 (-110)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Baltimore Orioles- 101-64 overall last season (includes playoffs), 49-34 as the home team

• Tampa Bay Rays- 99-65 overall last season (includes playoffs), 31-21 against division opponents (Play AL East rival Toronto today)

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• San Francisco Giants- Under was 91-67-4 last season, highest win percentage in MLB

• Texas Rangers- Over was 95-79-11 last season, 51-29-7 as the home team

Run Line Trends ➕➖

• Baltimore Orioles- Run line was 96-69 last season

• Arizona Diamondbacks- Run line was 97-82 last season, 45-43 as the home team

🌧 Rain delays Opening Day for four teams. Due to rainy forecasts in New York and Philadelphia, the baseball season openers in both cities, including the New York Mets hosting the Milwaukee Brewers and the Philadelphia Phillies playing against the Atlanta Braves, were postponed from Thursday to Friday. This change affected the first full slate of major league games this year, which had initially been set for Thursday. The postponements were made in anticipation of wet weather throughout Thursday in Queens and Philadelphia, prompting the rescheduling of the games to Friday at 1:40 p.m. ET and 3:05 p.m. ET, respectively.

💰 Dodgers sign Will Smith to 10-year extension. The Los Angeles Dodgers have secured All-Star catcher Will Smith for the long term with a 10-year contract extension worth $140 million. Smith expressed his excitement about finishing his career with the Dodgers, highlighting the organization's commitment to winning a World Series. This extension adds to the Dodgers' monumental offseason, where they spent over $1.16 billion on players, solidifying a star-studded roster that includes Smith, Mookie Betts, Shohei Ohtani, and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, all signed through 2032.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- Barry Bonds, Hank Aaron, Babe Ruth, and what other player are the only four players in MLB history to hit 700 career home runs?

Question #2- Wes Welker and what Cincinnati Bengals player led the NFL in receptions during the 2007 NFL season, recording 112 each?

Question #3- What NHL franchise has won the most Stanley Cups?

Anyone know what has happened on March 27th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On March 27th…

1990- NBA legend Michael Jordan scores 69 points in a game against the Cleveland Cavaliers. Jordan was the game’s highest scorer by 38 points, and every point was needed as Chicago pulled off a narrow 117-113 victory over Cleveland. It was the fourth time in Jordan’s career that he had surpassed the 60-point mark in a game.

1999- The 18th NCAA Women’s Basketball Championship is contested between Purdue and Duke. The Boilermakers took down the Blue Devils in dominant fashion, winning by a final score of 62-45. Purdue star Ukari Figgs was named the tournament’s Most Outstanding Player.

2005- Fred Funk wins the PGA Tour’s Players Championship at TPC Sawgrass. Funk went into the final round three strokes back of the leaders, but shot 1-under par for the round while every player in front of him shot 2-over par or worse. The victory made Funk the oldest Players Championship winner at 48 years old.

1. Albert Pujols

2. T.J. Houshmandzadeh

3. Montreal Canadiens