In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

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There were plenty of model predictions to go around yesterday across the NFL, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions in our Featured Matchup. That prediction went 1-0 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 1-1

Over/Under Predictions: 2-0

Spread Predictions: 0-2

Featured Matchup: 1-0

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Four MLB games are scheduled to take place today. Our model’s predictions for all four of those matchups can be found below.

Detroit Tigers @ Houston Astros

Model Predicts- Tigers ML, OVER 6.5, Tigers +1.5

The Detroit Tigers and Houston Astros will kick off the 2024 MLB postseason on Tuesday, squaring off in a best-of-three series set to begin at 2:32 PM.

The Tigers enter the postseason as the No.6 seed in the American League, posting a 86-76 record that was good enough for second place in the AL Central division. Meanwhile, the Astros are the No.3 overall seed in the American League, and finished atop the AL West division for the fourth consecutive season.

Houston is the favorite in this afternoon’s matchup, but our model expects the red-hot Tigers to steal a win in Game 1. Let’s dive into why that is.

Detroit Tigers

• Enter postseason as hottest team in baseball

  • Posted 17-8 record and +26 run differential in September

  • Finished 24-10 over last 34 games. Owned 62-66 record on August 23rd

• Pitching staff was elite over final month of season

  • Starters- 3.40 ERA (12th in MLB), 1.11 WHIP (8th), .270 BABIP (10th)

  • Relievers- 2.41 ERA (3rd), 0.99 WHIP (2nd), .244 BABIP (1st)

• Starting pitcher- Tarik Skubal

  • Pitching to expectations- 2.39 ERA vs 2.70 xERA

  • Ranks in top 9% of MLB in Strikeout rate (30.3%) and Walk rate (4.6%)

Houston Astros

• Ended regular season on high note

  • Won three of last four games- two wins over Guardians, one win over Mariners

  • Posted -2 run differential in that span

• Bats enter the postseason as hot as ever

  • Posted 115 wRC+ (4th in MLB), .306 BABIP (7th), and .755 OPS (5th) in September

  • 119 runs scored and 29 home runs were both top-12 in MLB in last month

• Starting pitcher- Framber Valdez

  • Due for mild regression- 2.91 ERA vs 3.36 xERA

  • Vulnerable to hard contact- 45.0% Hard Hit rate ranks in bottom 6% of MLB

What’s the Play?

Grabbing a playoff win on the road is no easy task, but we agree with our model that Detroit is in position to do just that this afternoon.

Tarik Skubal dominated every opponent he saw this season, and as a result will likely be the American League Cy Young winner. The left-hander avoids contact at an elite rate, as evidenced by his aforementioned 30.3% Strikeout rate and 31.9% Whiff rate, and the contact that is made still benefits Skubal and the Tigers, as he ranks in the top 30% of the majors in Ground Ball and Barrel rate.

On the other hand, despite an elite 2.91 ERA, Framber Valdez does come with concerns. The largest issue Valdez has yet to combat is his vulnerability to hard contact, and his mediocre command (7.8% Walk rate) has oftentimes given opposing hitters a free base recently, with Valdez surrendering 11 walks in his last five appearances.

A strong pitching staff often gives underdogs a chance in the postseason, and the combination of Skubal and an elite bullpen is enough to shut down this heavy-hitting Astros team. As a result, we’ll back the red-hot Tigers to win Game 1 of this series.

The Play: Tigers ML (+125)

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Money Line Trends 💰

• Detroit Tigers- 86-76 overall this season, 43-38 as the away team, and 7-3 in last ten games

• Milwaukee Brewers- 93-69 overall this season, 47-34 as the home team

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Baltimore Orioles- Over is 89-64-9 this season, 43-32-6 as the home team

• Milwaukee Brewers- Over is 82-69-11 this season, 41-32-8 as the home team

Run Line Trends ➕➖

• Detroit Tigers- Run line is 88-74 this season, 42-19 as a road underdog

• Kansas City Royals- Run line is 88-74 this season, 32-20 as a road underdog

😬 Chris Sale’s status for Wild Card round up in the air. Atlanta Braves ace Chris Sale was scratched from his start in Game 2 of a doubleheader against the Mets due to back spasms, putting his availability for the wild-card series in doubt. Right-hander Grant Holmes stepped in last minute and, along with five relievers, helped the Braves shut out the Mets 3-0, clinching their playoff spot. Sale, a Cy Young favorite, had been managing the back issue since a start against the Reds and finished his season with 18 wins, a 2.38 ERA, and 225 strikeouts.

🙏 Pete Rose passes away at the age of 83. Pete Rose, MLB's all-time hits leader with 4,256, died at age 83, his agent confirmed. Rose had a legendary 24-year career, winning three World Series titles, earning 17 All-Star selections, and setting records for games, at-bats, and singles. Despite his achievements, Rose was banned from baseball in 1989 for gambling while managing the Reds, which barred him from the Hall of Fame.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- Who is Ohio State’s all-time leading passer, who is also currently the assistant quarterbacks coach for the Detroit Lions?

Question #2- Before winning college basketball national championships, Kevin Ollie played in the NBA from 1997-2010. How many different teams did Ollie play for in his career.

Question #3- Which NFL team has the most Hall of Fame inductees, sitting at the top of the list with 30?

Anyone know what has happened on October 1st throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On October 1st…

1997- Former Minnesota Timberwolves star Kevin Garnett signs a six-year, $123 million contract extension. The extension was a record at the time, and Garnett signed the deal just two-years after graduating high school. He would play for Minnesota until 2007 before suiting up for the Celtics and Nets, and again the Timberwolves, before retiring in 2016.

2004- Seattle Mariners outfielder Ichiro Suzuki records his 258th hit of the season. The hit set a new single-season record, with Suzuki taking down George Sisler’s previous record of 257 that stood for 84 years. Suzuki would end the season with 262 hits, which still remains the most in a season in MLB history.

2017- Former NFL star O.J. Simpson is released from Nevada’s Lovelock Prison. Simpson was spending time behind bars after being convicted of armed robbery and kidnapping, but was released just nine years into a 33-year sentence. Simpson passed away earlier this year on April 10th at the age of 76.

1. J.T. Barrett

2. 13

3. Chicago Bears