Welcome to the NBA Season

In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

Additional Model Predictions ⬇️ 

NCAAF Model Predictions- End of Newsletter

NHL Model Predictions- End of Newsletter

There were plenty of model predictions to go around yesterday across the NFL, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions in our Featured Matchup. That prediction went 1-0 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 0-2

Over/Under Predictions: 2-0

Spread Predictions: 0-2

Featured Matchup: 1-0

The NBA season is finally here, and to celebrate we are offering a 25% discount on our Premium subscription! Offer lasts until 11:59 PM Eastern on October 22, 2024.

Normally our subscription is $10/month or $100/year, but you can now upgrade for only $7.50/month or $75/year and that price will not change for the length of the subscription!

Our NBA best bets went 65-46-1 last season with an ROI of 11.52%. Don’t miss out on getting those bets sent to your inbox every day⬇️

Two NBA games are scheduled to take place today. Our model’s predictions for both of those matchups can be found below.

Minnesota Timberwolves @ Los Angeles Lakers

Model Predicts- Timberwolves ML, OVER 219, Timberwolves -1

The Minnesota Timberwolves and Los Angeles Lakers will open up their 2024 NBA season’s on Tuesday, squaring off in Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles, California.

Minnesota enters the 2024 season fresh off a Western Conference Finals appearance, but came up short of the NBA Finals after losing to the Dallas Mavericks. Meanwhile, Los Angeles was bounced in the first round of last season’s playoffs, losing in five games to the defending NBA Champion Denver Nuggets.

Some new faces will be on the sidelines and in the rotation for both teams this season, but our model expects the Timberwolves to pick up a win and cover the short spread tonight. Let’s dive into why that is.

Minnesota Timberwolves

• Finished last season as the No.3 seed in the Western Conference

  • Posted 56-26 record. Made Western Conference Finals

  • Posted +6.3 Net Rating in regular season- ranked 3rd in NBA

• Defense was the key to successful 2023-24 campaign

  • Owned 108.4 Defensive Rating in regular season- ranked 1st in NBA and was 2.2 points better than next best team (Boston Celtics)

  • Held opponents to shooting 45.0% from the floor and 35.4% from three- both ranked top-seven in NBA

• Key offseason transactions

  • Traded Karl-Anthony Towns to New York Knicks for Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo

  • Drafted Rob Dillingham (Kentucky) and Terrence Shannon Jr. (Illinois)

Los Angeles Lakers

• Finished last season as No.8 seed in Western Conference

  • Posted 47-35 record. Lost in first round of playoffs to Denver Nuggets

  • Posted +0.6 Net Rating in regular season- ranked 19th in NBA

• Posted mediocre numbers for most of last season, but were efficient on offense

  • Offense- 115.4 Offensive Rating (15th in NBA). Shot 49.9% from floor overall (2nd in NBA) and 37.7% from three (8th in NBA)

  • Defense- 114.8 Defensive Rating (17th). Opponents shot 47.4% overall (17th) and 37.6% from three (25th)

• Key offseason transactions

  • Fired head coach Darvin Ham. Replaced him with JJ Redick

  • Drafted Dalton Knecht (Tennessee) and Bronny James (USC)

What’s the Play?

Betting the opening night of the NBA can sometimes be like throwing darts at a dartboard, but we agree with our model to back the Timberwolves as a road favorite here.

Trading Karl-Anthony Towns is a massive move at first glance, but Minnesota got a great return and already had a key piece on the roster to fill the void. Naz Reid, who oftentimes backed up Towns, is coming off a season in which he won Sixth Man of the Year and averaged 13.5 points per game while shooting 47.7% overall and a blistering 41.4% from three. He may not put up the same scoring numbers at KAT, but he can be just as productive from behind the three-point line and will give Minnesota great minutes in his place.

Additionally, Donte DiVincenzo provides the Timberwolves with more perimeter shooting, as he shot a career-best 40.1% from three last season. As previously mentioned, defending the three-point line was the Lakers’ greatest defensive weakness last season, and Minnesota now has all the tools to exploit that weakness from multiple angles.

Minnesota should be just as good defensively as it was last season and even better offensively with its new-look roster, which will make things difficult for the Lakers under an inexperienced head coach with a roster that did not improve in the offseason. As a result, we’ll back the Timberwolves on the money line.

The Play: Timberwolves ML (-115)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Boston Celtics- 64-18 overall last season, 37-4 as the home team

• Minnesota Timberwolves- 56-26 overall last season, 26-15 as the away team

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Los Angeles Lakers- Over was 47-34-1 last season, highest win percentage in NBA (58.0%)

Spread Trends ➕➖

• New York Knicks- 46-36-3 against the spread (ATS) last season, 25-20-2 ATS as the away team (including playoffs)

• Minnesota Timberwolves- 40-40-2 ATS last season, 28-21 ATS as the away team (including playoffs)

💰 Suggs, Magic come to terms on five-year extension. The Orlando Magic have signed guard Jalen Suggs to a five-year, $150.5 million contract extension. Suggs, the fifth overall pick in 2021, overcame early injury struggles and had a strong 2023-24 season, earning All-Defensive second team honors. With Suggs, the Magic are solidifying their young core, which includes Franz Wagner, Jonathan Isaac, Wendell Carter Jr., and Paolo Banchero.

🚀 Rockets sign Jalen Green to three-year extension. The Houston Rockets have agreed to a three-year, $106 million contract extension with guard Jalen Green, including a player option in the final year. Green's new deal will begin in 2025-26, where he will earn $33.5 million. Despite a slight scoring decline from his sophomore season, Green remains a key player for the Rockets, and his extension marks a unique rookie-scale deal with a player option.

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Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- Tommy Edman won the 2024 NLCS MVP Award in his first season with the Los Angeles Dodgers. What team did Edman play for from 2019-23 prior to his stint in L.A.?

Question #2- What quarterback owns the NFL record for completion percentage in a season at 74.4%?

Question #3- Donte DiVincenzo has played for five teams since being drafted in 2018. Three of those teams are the Minnesota Timberwolves, New York Knicks, and Golden State Warriors, but what are the other two?

Anyone know what has happened on October 22nd throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On October 22nd…

1992- The Atlanta Braves become the first American baseball team to win a World Series game outside of the United States. Atlanta defeated the Toronto Blue Jays 7-2 at the SkyDome in Game 5 to make history, giving the Braves their second win of the series. However, Toronto would win Game 6, giving the Blue Jays the World Series title.

1999- NHL goaltender Grant Fuhr wins his 400th career game. Fuhr picked up the win in a game against the Florida Panthers, one in which Fuhr and the Calgary Flames won by a score of 3-2. Fuhr would go on to win 403 games in his career, which currently ranks 12th all-time.

2012- The San Francisco Giants defeat the St. Louis Cardinals in the National League Championship Series. San Francisco won the series in seven games despite being down 3-1 in the series, capped off with a 9-0 victory in Game 7. The Giants would go on to play the Detroit Tigers in the World Series, beating Detroit in four games.

1. St. Louis Cardinals

2. Drew Brees

3. Milwaukee Bucks, Sacramento Kings

NCAAF Model Predictions🏈

NHL Model Predictions🏒