In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

There were plenty of predictions to go around yesterday across the NFL, NBA, and NHL, with our model focusing in on three of those predictions in our Featured Matchups. Those predictions went 2-1 overall, and you can see how each of the models performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 1-0

Over/Under Predictions: 1-0

Spread Predictions: 1-0

Featured Matchup: 1-0

Money Line Predictions: 2-0

Over/Under Predictions: 2-0

Spread Predictions: 2-0

Featured Matchup: 1-0

Money Line Predictions: 7-4

Over/Under Predictions: 5-6

Puck Line Predictions: 8-3

Featured Matchup: 0-1

After just two NBA games yesterday, the league has blessed us with 11 games right before the weekend. Our model’s predictions for all 11 matchups can be found below.

Los Angeles Clippers @ Utah Jazz

Model Predicts- Jazz ML, OVER 229, Jazz +3.5

The Los Angeles Clippers will make the short trip to Salt Lake City, Utah on Friday to take on the Jazz.

The Clippers enter tonight’s matchup after picking up a win in their season opener, a 123-111 win over the Portland Trail Blazers. Meanwhile, Utah sits at 0-1 after a 130-114 loss to the Sacramento Kings.

For the first time in a long time, the Los Angeles Clippers have Paul George and Kawhi Leonard on the floor at the same time, yet our model expects the Jazz to win this matchup. Let’s take a look at why that is.

Los Angeles Clippers

• Solid performance on opening night against Portland

  • Shot 52% from the floor overall and a blistering 47% from three

  • Played suffocating defense- 11 steals, 7 blocks, and held Portland to 31% shooting from three

  • Four players, Paul George, Kawhi Leonard, Ivica Zubac, and Bones Hyland, scored at least 17 points

• Playing on road was a struggle last season

  • Finished 21-20 on road with -1.0 Net Rating

    • 23-18 and +2.0 Net Rating at home

  • Biggest vulnerability was on the perimeter- allowed opponents to shoot 37.1% from three

• Injuries- Terance Mann (OUT), Brandon Boston (OUT)

Utah Jazz

• Defense was non-existent in season opener

  • Surrendered 130 points, albeit to a top-3 offensive team

  • Allowed Kings to shoot 51 three pointers- shot 37% on those attempts

• Still dominated certain areas of game despite what final score says

  • +9 rebound advantage, +5 fast-break point advantage

  • Outscored Sacramento 64-48 in the paint

• Solid team on home court last season

  • Went 23-18 overall with +1.4 Net Rating

  • Ranked top-10 in pace (101.3 offensive possessions per game)

What’s the Play?

We do think our model’s prediction of the Jazz winning this matchup is a bit of stretch, as the model is still utilizing some of last season’s data when Kawhi Leonard and Paul George were never on the floor together. However, we still believe Utah can keep this game close.

Utah is a team that we have seen do damage in the paint, and that is an area that L.A. struggles to defend. Per TeamRankings, the Clippers ranked 18th in opponent points per game in the paint last season with 50.9, showing that there will be plenty of scoring chances in close. Additionally, Utah loves launching the three-pointer, attempting 37.8 per game last season, and the Clippers have shown they can be exposed on the perimeter.

A full-healthy Jazz team is underrated by many metrics in our eyes. We’ll take the home underdog here.

The Play: Jazz +3.5 (-110)

Money Line Trends 💰

• New York Knicks- 0-1 this season, 26-21 as the away team last season (including playoffs)

• Utah Jazz- 10-6 overall as a home underdog last season

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Cleveland Cavaliers- Under is 0-1 this season, 25-19 as the home team last season (including playoffs)

• Portland Trail Blazers- Over is 1-0 this season, 23-16-2 as the home team last season

Spread Trends ➕➖

• Boston Celtics- 1-0 against the spread (ATS) this season, 27-23 ATS as a home favorite last season (including playoffs)

😬 Derozan, Bulls not close to extension after brutal first game of season. The Chicago Bulls' season began with a players-only meeting following their disappointing 124-104 loss to the Oklahoma City Thunder. NBA insider Shams Charania explained that the meeting revolved around frustration with the team's passing and overall offensive performance, with links drawn to DeMar DeRozan's expiring contract situation. DeRozan is in negotiations with the Bulls for an extension, but there are significant differences in terms of years and salary, raising questions about his long-term future with the team.

🦌 Lillard dominates in Bucks debut. Damian Lillard's impressive performance in his Milwaukee Bucks debut, where he scored 39 points, including 14 crucial points in the fourth quarter, led the Bucks to a narrow 118-117 victory over the Philadelphia 76ers on opening night. Notably, the Bucks had a significant +13 point differential while Lillard was on the court and Giannis Antetokounmpo was on the bench. While the 76ers saw strong performances from players like Tyrese Maxey and Joel Embiid, missed free throws and Lillard’s dominance proved to be too much to overcome.

There are six NHL games scheduled to take place today, and our model has predictions for all six of those matchups. Those predictions can be found below.

Los Angeles Kings @ Arizona Coyotes

Model Predicts- Kings ML, UNDER 6.5, Coyotes +1.5

The Los Angeles Kings will make the short journey to Tempe, Arizona on Friday to take on the Coyotes.

L.A. enters tonight’s matchup with a 3-2-1 record, good enough for third place in Pacific Division. Arizona has had similar success so far, entering tonight at 3-3-0.

These teams already squared off once this week, a 6-3 win for the Kings, and our model expects the Kings to emerge victorious again tonight. Let’s take a look at why that is and see our model’s best bet for today’s matchup.

Los Angeles Kings

• On surface defense looks horrible, but they have just gotten unlucky

  • Rank 31st in goals against per 60 minutes (GA/60) in 5-on-5 with 3.33 (Natural Stat Trick)

  • However, expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60) in 5-on-5 sits at 2.08, which ranks 1st in NHL

• Surrender very little pressure while on defense

  • Rank 1st in high-danger chances against per 60 minutes (HDCA/60) in 5-on-5 with 6.00, 2.71 fewer than any other team

• Starting goalie- Cam Talbot

  • .894 Save % in 5-on-5 situations

  • Ranks 20th in Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) with +1.7, per MoneyPuck

Arizona Coyotes

• Have not been able to get offense going

  • GF/60 in 5-on-5 sits at 1.34- 31st in NHL

  • Generating just 28.3 shots on goal per game, 8.02 high-danger chances per 60 minutes in 5-on-5

• Luckily, defense has been rock solid

  • 1.56 GA/60 in 5-on-5, 2.48 xGA/60

    • Shows more goals are on horizon, but both numbers are still great

• Starting goalie- Karel Vejmelka

  • .976 Save % and .913 High-Danger save % in 5-on-5

  • Ranks 7th in GSAx (+4.7)

What’s the Play?

The offensive explosion that we saw on Tuesday from these teams was impressive. However, we think that is unlikely to happen again.

First of all, Connor Ingram got the start in net for Arizona, and was pulled from the game in the first period. Vejmelka then replaced him, surrendering just two goals the rest of the way.

Talbot is a wild card in net for the Kings, but he has a tremendous defense in front of him that is going against a bad scoring attack. We think Tuesday’s scoring outburst will end up being an outlier in this season series, so we feel comfortable taking the under here.

The Play: Under 6.5 (-110)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Carolina Hurricanes- 4-4-0 this season, 2-0-0 as the home team

• Los Angeles Kings- 3-2-1 overall this season, 2-0-0 as the away team

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• New Jersey Devils- Over is 6-0 this season with average total of 7.83 goals

• Arizona Coyotes- Under is 3-3 this season with average total of 5.17 goals

Puck Line Trends ➕➖

• Buffalo Sabres- Puck line is 4-3 this season

🦆 Ducks hand Bruins first loss of season. Mason McTavish scored the winning goal 2:08 into overtime, propelling the Anaheim Ducks to a comeback victory over the Boston Bruins with a final score of 4-3. The Ducks, trailing 3-1 late in the third period, managed to force overtime with two late goals within the final 1:55. This marked the first time in franchise history that Anaheim won after trailing by multiple goals in the final 2 minutes of regulation, and ended Boston’s perfect 6-0-0 start to the season

🚑 Brannstrom stretchered off ice against Islanders. Ottawa Senators defenseman Erik Brannstrom was stretchered off the ice after a heavy hit from New York Islanders forward Cal Clutterbuck in the second period of Thursday's game. The hit occurred as Brannstrom released the puck at the Islanders' blue line, resulting in a collision that saw Brannstrom hitting his head and/or neck on the ice. Although some considered the hit late, it didn't draw a penalty, and Brannstrom was reported to be alert with the use of his extremities before being transported to a local hospital for further evaluation.

The 2023 World Series is set to begin tonight, with the Arizona Diamondbacks taking on the Texas Rangers. Our model’s predictions for Game 1 can be found below.

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Texas Rangers

Model Predicts- Rangers ML, OVER 8, Diamondbacks +1.5

The Arizona Diamondbacks will travel to Arlington, Texas on Friday to take on the Rangers in Game 1 of the 2023 World Series.

Arizona has reached this point by defeating the Brewers and Dodgers in dominant fashion, followed by a Game 7 victory over the Philadelphia Phillies earlier this week. Texas got here in a similar way, beating the Rays and Orioles before defeating the Astros in Game 7 of the ALCS.

Not many expected two Wild Card teams to make the Fall Classic, but here we are. Let’s dive into this matchup and see our model’s best bet for this matchup.

Arizona Diamondbacks

• Offense was electric in Wild Card and NLDS, but cooled off in NLCS

  • 133 wRC+, .282 BABIP, and .877 OPS in first 5 postseason games (FanGraphs). Won all 5 games

  • 13 home runs was most of any team in that time

  • 73 wRC+, .642 OPS, and just 5 homers in NLCS

• Bullpen has proven to be elite

  • 2.94 ERA and .340 FIP in postseason

  • Keeping balls in park- 0.37 homers per nine innings

• Starting pitcher- Zac Gallen

  • Has been lit up in postseason- 5.24 ERA and 6.93 FIP

  • Can’t keep balls in park- 2.42 homers per nine innings

Texas Rangers

• Have been best offense in postseason

  • Rank 1st in wRC+ (124), 3rd in BABIP (.301), and 1st in OPS (.825), per FanGraphs

  • Showcasing power- 22 home runs in 12 postseason games

• Will likely need to rely heavily on starting pitching

  • Starters- 3.62 ERA and 3.61 FIP in postseason

  • Bullpen is significantly over-performing- 3.72 ERA against 5.28 FIP

• Starting pitcher- Nathan Eovaldi

  • 4-0 with 2.42 ERA in postseason

  • Vulnerable to contact- 26.3% Whiff rate, 22.9% strikeout rate

What’s the Play?

Despite Arizona’s offense cooling down, the World Series will contain arguably the two-heaviest hitting teams that made the postseason, so we agree with our model on the over in this spot.

Gallen has had several poor outings in the postseason, and his past splits on the road aren’t encouraging. Per FanGraphs, Gallen posted a 2.47 ERA and 2.32 FIP at home in the regular season, compared to a 4.42 ERA and 4.14 FIP on the road. His inability to keep balls in the ballpark in the postseason is also a massive concern against this Rangers offense.

Eovaldi has been great on the mound, but Texas’ bullpen is long overdue for regression and Arizona is certainly capable of making that happen. Expect the runs to flow.

The Play: Over 8 (-115)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Texas Rangers- 9-3 overall in postseason, 1-3 as the home team

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Texas Rangers- Over is 6-4-2 in postseason, 3-1 at home with average total of 10.75 runs

Run Line Trends ➕➖

• Arizona Diamondbacks- Run line is 9-3 in postseason, 33-22 overall as road underdog in regular season and postseason

👏 Dusty Baker retires after 26 seasons. Dusty Baker officially announced his retirement after managing the Houston Astros for four seasons, expressing gratitude for the opportunity and the support from fans, players, and family. Baker, with 2,183 career wins, became the first Black manager to reach 2,000 wins and the only manager to lead five different teams to division titles. While he hasn't decided on his next steps, he feels there's unfinished business in baseball and plans to spend time with family and let the Lord guide his future endeavors.

✍️ Phillies want to keep Nola, extend Wheeler. As the Philadelphia Phillies grapple with their unexpected elimination by the Arizona Diamondbacks, Dave Dombrowski, the president of baseball operations, is already focused on the upcoming MLB offseason. Dombrowski stressed that his main objective is re-signing Aaron Nola, but that extending Zack Wheeler is also in the plans. However, he emphasized having a contingency plan in place if their primary objectives falter, including finding top-quality starting pitching and strengthening the bullpen.