Which Losing Streak Will End in Vegas?

In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

Additional Model Predictions ⬇️ 

NBA Model Predictions- Click Here

NHL Model Predictions- Click Here

NCAAB Model Predictions- Click Here

2024 CFP Bracket- Click Here

There were plenty of model predictions to go around yesterday across the NFL, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions in our Featured Matchup. That prediction went 0-1 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 11-2

Over/Under Predictions: 7-6

Spread Predictions: 6-7

Featured Matchup: 0-1

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Two NFL games are scheduled to take place today. Our model’s predictions for both of those matchups can be found below.

Atlanta Falcons @ Las Vegas Raiders

Model Predicts- Falcons ML, OVER 44.5, Raiders +5.5

The Atlanta Falcons will hit the road for the second-consecutive week on Monday, traveling to Las Vegas, Nevada to take on the Raiders as part of a Monday Night Football doubleheader.

Atlanta enters tonight’s matchup in a concerning slump, one that has seen the Falcons lose four consecutive games. Those losses have forced the Falcons to fall below the .500 mark at 6-7, while the Raiders enter this Monday Night battle with a 2-11 record and in the midst of a nine-game losing streak.

Neither Atlanta nor Las Vegas has found the win column in over a month, but our model expects the Falcons to get back on track with a win in a high-scoring game tonight. Let’s dive into why that is.

Atlanta Falcons

• Enter tonight on four-game losing streak

  • Losses to Saints, Broncos, Chargers, and Vikings

  • Own -60 point differential in that span

• Turnovers have been affecting scoring production during losing streak, but still moving ball well

  • Have turned ball over nine times in last four games (eight interceptions, one fumble)

  • Getting down field in large chunks- averaging 385 yards/game during losing streak. Averaged 7.1 yards/play last week vs Vikings

• Defense has also struggled during losing streak, especially against the pass

  • Rank 31st in opponent EPA/dropback over last four games. Surrendering 11.2 yards/completion over last three games

Las Vegas Raiders

• Enter tonight on nine-game losing streak

  • Last win was 20-16 victory over Browns in Week 4

  • Being out-scored 264-158 in that nine-game stretch

• Defense continues to be weak point of team, and will be missing key piece this week

  • Rank outside top-20 in opponent EPA/play and opponent success rate since Week 4. Surrendering 5.6 yards/play over last three games

  • Edge rushed Maxx Crosby will be OUT with ankle injury

• Lots of question marks at the quarterback position

  • Gardner Minshew on IR, Aidan O’Connell is listed as questionable (Knee). Desmond Ridder likely to get start on Monday Night

What’s the Play?

The play of both starting quarterbacks, Kirk Cousins and Desmond Ridder, is tough to predict, but we agree with our model that both will produce at a high enough level to hit the over in this matchup.

Kirk Cousins has been a large reason for Atlanta’s losing streak, throwing eight interceptions and zero touchdown passes over the last four games, but facing this Raiders defense gives him the opportunity to bust out of his slump. The absence of Maxx Crosby means Cousins will face very little pressure, giving plenty of time to carve up a Raiders pass defense that ranks 24th in opponent EPA/dropback since Week 4.

Additionally, Atlanta has performed far better offensively on the road this season, averaging 6.2 yards/play and 22.5 points/game vs 5.5 yards/play and 20.4 points/game at home. Those trends are in a solid spot to continue tonight.

Desmond Ridder is the wild card here, but we have enough confidence he can get going against Atlanta’s vulnerable passing defense. Our model projects the total for this matchup to be 46.5, giving us room to back the over at 44.5.

The Play: Over 44.5 (-110)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Minnesota Vikings- 11-2 overall this season, 6-1 as the home team, and 6-0 in last six games

• Atlanta Falcons- 6-7 overall this season, 3-3 as the away team

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Minnesota Vikings- Under is 8-5 this season, 4-2 as the home team

• Las Vegas Raiders- Over is 8-5 this season, 4-1 as the home team

Spread Trends ➕➖

• Chicago Bears- 6-5-2 against the spread (ATS) this season, 2-0-1 ATS against division opponents (Play NFC North rival Minnesota tonight)

🤕 Mahomes suffers high ankle sprain in win over Browns. Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes suffered a high ankle sprain during the fourth quarter of Sunday’s 21-7 win over the Cleveland Browns but avoided a fracture, according to head coach Andy Reid. Despite the injury, Mahomes felt he could have returned to the game but acknowledged that substituting backup quarterback Carson Wentz was the smarter decision. The Chiefs, now 13-1 and the AFC's top seed, face a challenging schedule ahead with a Saturday game against the Houston Texans followed by a Christmas Day matchup against the Pittsburgh Steelers.

💪 Josh Allen dominates in shootout win over Lions. Josh Allen led the Buffalo Bills to a thrilling 48-42 victory over the Detroit Lions, snapping their 11-game winning streak by showcasing his dual-threat skills with two rushing touchdowns in the first quarter and two passing touchdowns in the second half. The AFC East-leading Bills, who have now won eight of their last nine games, extended their franchise record by scoring 30 or more points in eight straight games while becoming the first team since 2013 to do so. Despite Jared Goff’s five touchdown passes for the Lions, Allen’s dynamic playmaking and clutch moments, including key throws and scrambles, sealed the win in a high-scoring showdown.

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Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- What current NFL running back was Saquon Barkley’s back-up during his time at Penn State?

Question #2- The Chicago Bulls traded LaMarcus Aldridge to what Western Conference team after drafting him second overall in the 2006 NBA Draft?

Question #3- The New Jersey Devils defeated what team in seven games to win the 2003 Stanley Cup Finals?

Anyone know what has happened on December 16th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On December 16th…

1973- OJ Simpson becomes the first NFL running back to rush for 2,000 yards in a season. Simpson reached the elusive milestone as a member of the Buffalo Bills, and he did so in only 14 games. Simpson would finish the 1973 season with 2,003 rushing yards, the eighth-most in a single-season in NFL history.

1991- The MLB’s newest expansion team, the Florida Marlins, signs its first player in franchise history. That player was Clemente Nuñez, a pitcher from the Dominican Republic who was signed at 16 years old. However, Nuñez would never live up to the lofty expectations set for him, as he never made it past AA and quit baseball in 1996.

2019- Former New Orleans Saints quarterback Drew Brees throws four touchdown passes in a 34-7 win over the Indianapolis Colts. The performance gave Brees 539 touchdown passes for his career, setting a new NFL record that was previously held by Peyton Manning. Brees also completed 29 of his 30 pass attempts in the game (96.7%), setting a new single-game record.

1. Miles Sanders

2. Portland Trail Blazers

3. Mighty Ducks of Anaheim