In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

Additional Model Predictions & Bonuses ⬇️ 

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There were plenty of model predictions to go around yesterday across the MLB, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions in our Featured Matchup. That prediction went 0-1 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 9-6

Over/Under Predictions: 11-4

Run Line Predictions: 9-6

Featured Matchup: 0-1

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15 MLB games are scheduled to take place today. Our model’s predictions for all 15 matchups can be found below.

Toronto Blue Jays @ Los Angeles Angels

Model Predicts- Angels ML, OVER 8.5, Angels +1.5

The Toronto Blue Jays and Los Angeles Angels will square off once again on Wednesday, the final game of a three-game series between the teams.

Toronto has had the upper hand in the series thus far, grabbing multi-run victories in Games 1 and 2. Those wins make the Blue Jays victorious in four of their last six contests, while the two losses added on to a poor stretch for the Angels, one that has seen the team lose four of its last five.

Our model projected the Angels to win yesterday’s ball game, and it is doing so again today. However, we are more concerned with the total in this matchup. Let’s take a look at why that is.

Toronto Blue Jays

• Have won four of last six games

  • One win vs Orioles, one win vs Athletics, and two wins vs Angels

  • Own +5 run differential in that stretch

• Bats have come back to life in series with Angels

  • Own 116 wRC+, .759 OPS, and are averaging 5.0 runs per game

  • .255 BABIP is low, but is a sign of misfortune rather than bad offense

• Starting pitcher- Jose Berrios

  • Due for regression- 3.97 ERA vs 5.14 xERA

  • Ranks in bottom 20% of MLB in Strikeout rate (18.7%) and Hard Hit rate (43.0%)

Los Angeles Angels

• Have yet to pick up win in series vs Toronto

  • Outscored 4-2 in Game 1 and 6-1 in Game 2

  • Have recorded only nine hits across those two contests

• Offense showed life prior to series beginning

  • Recorded 105 wRC+, .309 BABIP, and .719 OPS from August 1-11

  • .343 on base % ranked 5th in MLB in that stretch

• Starting pitcher- Tyler Anderson

  • Due for regression- 2.99 ERA vs 4.20 xERA

  • Pitching to contact- 18.8% Strikeout rate

What’s the Play?

We’re going back to this matchup for the second day in a row, but instead of backing the Angels on the money line we are going to take the over.

Berrios and Anderson are both in a position to see regression on the mound. Each owns an xERA at least 1.17 runs higher than his real ERA, and both are pitching to contact, as evidenced by their bottom 20% ranking in Strikeout rate this season.

Pitching to contact isn’t the worst strategy, but neither Berrios nor Anderson can stay away from bad contact. As previously mentioned, Berrios ranks in the bottom 20% of the MLB in Hard Hit rate this season, and that has led to opponents launching 26 homers against him, the second most in the MLB. Anderson is much better at limiting hard contact, but he is far more vulnerable in other areas, as evidenced by ranking in the bottom 34% of MLB in Barrel rate (8.5%) and Ground Ball rate (37.9%).

Toronto’s offense can certainly keep its momentum going against Anderson, and Berrios provides L.A. with a solid matchup to get back on track. Back the over here.

The Play: Over 8.5 (-120)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Kansas City Royals- 65-55 overall this season, 25-13 vs division opponents (Play AL Central rival Minnesota today)

• Cleveland Guardians- 71-49 overall this season, 37-20 as the home team, and 4-0 in last four games

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Houston Astros- Under is 68-47-4 this season, 34-24-1 as the away team

• Toronto Blue Jays- Over is 64-53-3 this season, 30-28-2 as the away team

Run Line Trends ➕➖

• Cincinnati Reds- Run line is 68-52 this season, highest win percentage in MLB (56.7%)

🚀 Astros beat Rays to extend win streak to seven games. Alex Bregman and Jeremy Peña both homered, leading the Houston Astros to a 3-2 victory over the Tampa Bay Rays, marking their seventh straight win and increasing their lead in the AL West. Yusel Kikuchi earned his second win in three starts for the Astros, while Josh Hader secured his 26th save, a franchise record. The Rays, who have struggled recently, fell below .500 after losing for the sixth time in eight games, despite a strong start by Shane Baz and some notable defensive plays by Junior Caminero.

🤕 Chisholm likely going on IL with UCL injury. The New York Yankees are expected to place Jazz Chisholm Jr. on the injured list due to a left UCL injury sustained during a slide at home plate in Monday's game against the Chicago White Sox. Manager Aaron Boone mentioned that the team is still assessing the severity of the injury and whether surgery will be needed, although Chisholm himself wasn't overly concerned. Chisholm, who was traded to the Yankees from the Miami Marlins on July 27, has been outstanding since joining, hitting .316 with seven home runs in 14 games.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- Which country has the most women’s World Cup victories?

Question #2- The NBA has seen boatloads of great scorers come through the league, but only two players have averaged more than 30.0 points per game for their career. One is Michael Jordan, but who is the other player?

Question #3- Two athletes hold the record for the most Olympic gold medals won in track and field. Who are those two athletes?

Anyone know what has happened on August 14th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On August 14th…

1961- The Philadelphia Phillies fall to the Chicago Cubs by a score of 9-2, handing the Phillies their 17th straight loss. The loss was also the 11th consecutive game in which the opposing pitcher pitched a complete game against Philadelphia, further highlighting the team’s struggles. Philadelphia ended the season with a 47-107 record, posting a -212 run differential along the way.

1987- Oakland first baseman Mark McGwire hits his 39th home run of the season, setting a new rookie record. McGwire burst onto the scene as a power-hitting first baseman, showcasing his remarkable strength and hitting prowess by slugging 49 home runs as a rookie and earning the American League Rookie of the Year award. His remarkable debut season marked the beginning of a successful career, one that would end with 583 home runs.

2021- Arizona Diamondbacks pitcher Tyler Gilbert throws a no-hitter in a 7-0 victory over the San Diego Padres. Gilbert achieved the rare feat in what was his first ever major league start, striking out five batters along the way. This marked the eighth no-hitter of the 2021 MLB season, and it was particularly notable as Gilbert became the fourth pitcher in MLB history to throw a no-hitter in his first career start.

1. United States

2. Wilt Chamberlain

3. Carl Lewis, Paavo Nurmi