In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

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There were no model predictions yesterday, June 16, 2024.

One NBA game is scheduled to take place today. Our model’s predictions for that matchup can be found below.

Dallas Mavericks @ Boston Celtics

Model Predicts- Celtics ML, OVER 209.5, Celtics -6.5

The Dallas Mavericks and Boston Celtics will continue their best-of-seven series on Monday night, taking the series back to Boston, Massachusetts for a potential series-clinching game in Game 5.

Dallas finally picked up its first win of the series on Friday night, taking down Boston in dominant fashion with a 122-84 victory. However, the Celtics still lead the series 3-1, meaning the Mavericks still have tons of work to do in order to get back in to the series.

Game 4 showed everyone what the Mavericks are capable of, but our model believes that performance won’t change the series in the grand scheme of things. Let’s take a look at why that is.

Dallas Mavericks

• Dominated in Game 4 in pick up first win of series

  • Won 122-84. Shot 50% overall and 40% from three

  • Held Boston to 35 points in first half, while scoring 61 of their own

• Strong Game 4 performance shifted many series metrics

  • Now own +1.6 Net Rating in series- 108.5 Offensive Rating and 106.9 Defensive Rating

  • Net Rating from Games 1 through 3 was -11.4

• Injuries- Luka Doncic is questionable, Greg Brown in OUT

Boston Celtics

• Had worst performance of postseason in Game 4

  • Shot 36% overall and 34% from three

  • Shooting inefficiency led to being outscored by 13 points in 1st and 2nd quarters, six points in 3rd and 4th quarters

• Game 4 blowout hides how well team has played defensively in series

  • Game 4- 127.1 Defensive Rating. 124 points is second-most allowed in 18 postseason games

  • Games 1 through 3- 102.1 Defensive Rating. Held to Dallas to 99 points or less in all three matchups

• Injuries- Kristaps Porzingis is questionable

What’s the Play?

Game 4 was certainly an ugly one for Boston, and could sway some bettors from backing them tonight. However, we agree with our model to back the Celtics on the spread in Game 5.

Boston’s loss to Dallas in Game 4 was its first against the Mavericks this season. Outside of that loss, the Celtics were 2-0 against the Mavericks in the regular season with a +18.5 Net Rating, and 3-0 to begin the NBA Finals with a +11.4 Net Rating. Those metrics coming from a five-game sample size are far more reflective of Boston’s advantage in this series, so we don’t believe one should put too much weight on the blowout loss in Game 4.

The Celtics were likely to lose at some point in this series, and since things got out of hand early there likely wasn’t much urgency to make adjustments and close the gap, as evidenced by all of Boston’s starters playing 30 minutes or less in Game 4. A new level of urgency will likely surface tonight as the Celtics look to close things out in front of their home crowd, and we believe it will be enough to enable Boston to cover the 6.5-point spread.

The Play: Celtics -6.5 (-110)

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Money Line Trends 💰

• Boston Celtics- 79-21 overall this season, 45-6 as the home team

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Boston Celtics- Over is 51-49 overall this season, 28-23 as a home favorite

Spread Trends ➕➖

• Boston Celtics- 50-44-6 against the spread (ATS) this season, 27-21-3 ATS as a home favorite, and 9-8-1 ATS in postseason

👀 Mavericks eyeing Bronny James in second round of NBA Draft. The Dallas Mavericks are interested in drafting USC guard Bronny James with the 58th pick in June's draft, but it's unlikely he'll be available that late, according to NBA insider Marc Stein. James is projected to be selected earlier in the second round, and he has already met with the Lakers and Suns, who pick at Nos. 17, 55, and 22, respectively. In his single season at USC, James averaged 4.8 points and 2.1 assists per game.

📺 Charles Barkley to retire from TV following 2024-25 season. Charles Barkley will retire from his role as a TV analyst on TNT and CBS Sports after the 2024-25 season. He has been a key figure on "Inside the NBA" since 2000 and decided to step down amid uncertainty about Warner Bros. Discovery's future and its NBA media rights. Barkley expressed gratitude to his NBA family and mentioned that his retirement decision is final, with TNT planning to discuss future plans with him.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- LeBron James was in the midst of a dominant run from 2009-2013, winning four MVPs in that five year span. The only year James didn’t win the MVP in that time was 2011. Who won the award for that season?

Question #2- Only four NBA players have been drafted out of the Patriot League since 1999. Two of those players were drafted in 2013 out of Lehigh and Bucknell, both of whom still play in the NBA today. Who were those two players?

Question #3- Four NFL franchises have never made an appearance in the Super Bowl, with three of those teams being the Cleveland Browns, Detroit Lions, and Houston Texans. What team is the fourth?

Anyone know what has happened on June 17th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On June 17th…

1960- Ted Williams hits his 500th career home run in a 3-1 victory over the Cleveland Indians. Williams is considered to be one of the best hitters to ever play the game, ending his career with a .344 batting average and incredible .482 on base percentage. He would hit 521 home runs in his career, currently ranking him 20th on the all-time list.

1992- The Philadelphia 76ers trade Charles Barkley to the Phoenix Suns. Phoenix sent Jeff Hornacek, Tim Perry, and Andrew Lang to the 76ers, a trade that surprisingly did not involve a single draft pick. Barkley would lead the Suns to what was at the time a franchise record 62 wins, while simultaneously winning the MVP, and take Phoenix to the NBA Finals, where the Suns would go on to lose to the Chicago Bulls.

1994- Former NFL star O.J. Simpson gets into a police chase that is watched around the world. The chase occurred just two days after the murders of Simpson’s wife and her friend, a crime that many believed was committed by Simpson. O.J. was told by Los Angeles police to turn himself in, but after failing to do so the police showed up to Simpson’s home, which he then fled. He would lead police on a wild goose chase all over Southern California, an ordeal that 95 million tuned in to watch.

1. Derrick Rose

2. C.J. McCollum and Mike Muscala

3. Jacksonville Jaguars