Will Both Offense Shine in Queens?

In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

Additional Model Predictions ⬇️ 

NHL Model Predictions- End of Newsletter

NCAAF Model Predictions- End of Newsletter

There were plenty of model predictions to go around yesterday across the NFL, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions in our Featured Matchup. That prediction went 0-1 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 1-0

Over/Under Predictions: 0-1

Spread Predictions: 0-1

Featured Matchup: 0-1

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Two MLB games are scheduled to take place today. Our model’s predictions for both of those matchups can be found below.

Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets

Model Predicts- Mets ML, OVER 7, Mets +1.5

The Philadelphia Phillies will make the short trip to New York on Tuesday, taking on their NL East rival, the New York Mets, in Game 3 of a best-of-five series.

New York got the best of Philadelphia in Game 1, using a late-game rally to spoil a stellar outing from Zack Wheeler. However, Philadelphia got the bats going in Game 2, eventually leading to a walk-off single by outfielder Nick Castellanos to tie the series at one game apiece.

Our model makes Game 3 of this series a coin flip, but slightly favors the Mets at home in a high-scoring game. Let’s dive into why that is.

Philadelphia Phillies

• Comeback win in Game 2 tied series

  • Won game 7-6. Down 3-0 in the sixth inning

  • Recorded 10 hits. Scored four runs in final two innings to win

• Bullpen has been largest concern through two playoff games

  • Own 15.00 ERA and 2.50 WHIP in postseason, per FanGraphs

  • Contact coming in bunches- 13 hits across six innings, three of which were home runs

• Starting pitcher- Aaron Nola

  • Pitching to expectations- 3.57 ERA vs 3.75 xERA

  • Great command on mound- 6.1% Walk rate ranks in top 20% of MLB

New York Mets

• Have faired well through five postseason games

  • Went 2-1 vs Brewers, now 1-1 vs Phillies

  • Own +7 run differential in that span

• Offense isn’t doing much damage, but has been consistent

  • Have recorded 39 hits in postseason, 30 of which are singles

  • Five homers have helped bring in many of those baserunners- 27 runs in playoffs is most of any team

• Starting pitcher- Sean Manaea

  • Pitching to expectations- 3.47 ERA vs 3.75 xERA

  • Struggles to keep balls on ground- 37.8% Ground Ball rate ranks in bottom 23% of MLB

What’s the Play?

Plenty of runs were scored in Games 1 and 2 of this series, and we agree with our model that we are due for another high-scoring game tonight.

Aaron Nola has faced the Mets twice during the 2024 season, but produced mixed results over that span. His first matchup with New York was one of the more dominant outings by any pitcher this season, one that saw Nola allow four hits and zero runs across 9.0 innings. However, that dominance quickly faded when Nola saw this Mets team on September 13th, as the right-hander surrendered six earned runs in 4.1 innings.

Manaea has had similar results when facing Philadelphia, posting a 5.56 ERA across 16.2 innings. Home runs have been an issue for Manaea in those outings, surrendering four total, and his inability to keep baseballs on the ground gives the Phillies a chance to send a few more over the wall tonight.

Nola and Manaea have each struggled against today’s opponent, and neither has a particularly strong bullpen behind them, as the Phillies’ and Mets’ relievers own an ERA of 4.82 or higher in the playoffs. As a result, we should see both offenses have plenty of opportunities to score tonight, so we will back the over.

The Play: Over 7 (-120)

Money Line Trends 💰

• New York Mets- 3-2 overall in postseason, 46-35 as the home team in regular season

• San Diego Padres- 3-1 overall in postseason, 45-36 as the home team in regular season

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Philadelphia Phillies- Over is 2-0 in postseason with average total of 10.5

• New York Mets- Over is 4-1 in postseason with average total of 9.40

Run Line Trends ➕➖

• New York Mets- Run line is 4-1 in postseason, 40-40 in regular season as home team

🐅 Tigers tie series with clutch homer from Kerry Carpenter in Game 2. Kerry Carpenter's three-run homer in the ninth inning off Cleveland’s All-Star closer Emmanuel Clase led the Detroit Tigers to a 3-0 win, evening their AL Division Series at one game apiece. Tarik Skubal pitched seven scoreless innings, continuing his dominant postseason, while Detroit's bullpen sealed the victory. Despite Clase’s impressive season, Detroit managed a breakthrough with Carpenter's game-changing home run, giving them momentum heading into Games 3 and 4 at home.

👑 Perez ignites Royals’ offense in 4-2 win over Yankees. Salvador Perez's home run ignited a four-run rally as the Kansas City Royals defeated the New York Yankees 4-2, tying the AL Division Series at one game apiece. Kansas City's relievers shut down New York after Cole Ragans pitched four innings, while Maikel Garcia, moved to the top of the lineup, had four hits and contributed to the scoring. Game 3 of the series will be played in Kansas City on Wednesday, marking their first postseason home game since the 2015 World Series.

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Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- What two college football teams participate in the Red River Rivalry every season?

Question #2- Before his Hall of Fame NBA career, Reggie Miller played basketball at what university?

Question #3- Philadelphia Phillies legends Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley were traded to what franchise before/during the 2015 season?

Anyone know what has happened on October 8th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On October 8th…

1982- The New Jersey Devils pick up their first NHL victory. The win came in a 3-2 victory over the New York Rangers, but was just the first of 17 wins that the Devils would record that season. New Jersey, formerly the Kansas City Scouts and Colorado Rockies, have won 1,651 games since being established 1974, the 18th most in NHL history.

2005- NHL legend Wayne Gretzky gets his first win as an NHL head coach. Gretzky picked up the win for the Phoenix Coyotes in a 2-1 win over the Minnesota Wild, the first of 38 wins for the season. Gretzky would coach the Coyotes for four seasons, posting a 143-161-24 record.

2018- Boston Red Sox player Brock Holt becomes the first player to hit for the cycle in MLB postseason history. The cycle came in a 16-1 blowout victory over the New York Yankees, who Boston later beat 3 games to 1 in the series. Boston would go on to win the World Series as well, defeating the Dodgers in five games

1. Oklahoma and Texas

2. UCLA

3. Los Angeles Dodgers

NHL Model Predictions🏒

NCAAF Model Predictions🏈