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MLB Model Predictions- End of Newsletter

There were plenty of model predictions to go around yesterday across the NFL with our model focusing in on one of those predictions in our Featured Matchup. That prediction went 0-1 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 8-5

Over/Under Predictions: 7-6

Spread Predictions: 10-2-1

Featured Matchup: 0-1

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Two NFL games are scheduled to take place today. Our model’s predictions for both of those matchups can be found below.

Seattle Seahawks @ Detroit Lions

Model Predicts- Lions ML, OVER 47, Seahawks +4.5

The Seattle Seahawks will hit the road for the second time this season on Monday, taking their talents to Detroit, Michigan to battle the Lions in the second game of a Monday Night Football doubleheader.

Seattle enters this Week 4 matchup red hot, winning each of its first three games of the season. The undefeated record puts the Seahawks in first place in the NFC West division, while the Lions own a 2-1 record and sit in second place in the NFC North.

Seattle has looked great through three weeks while Detroit has had some struggles, but our model expects the Lions to win tonight’s matchup in a high-scoring affair. Let’s dive into why that is.

Seattle Seahawks

• Enter Week 4 as one of few undefeated teams remaining

  • Beat Broncos in Week 1, Patriots in Week 2, and Dolphins in Week 3

  • Own +30 point differential in that span

• Lockdown defense has been key to hot start

  • Rank 2nd in opponent EPA/play, 1st in opponent success rate

  • Holding opponents to 3.9 yards/play and 14.3 points/game this season- both rank top-four in NFL

• Offense much stronger with pass than run

  • Rank 7th in dropback success rate, 29th in rushing success rate

  • Averaging just 3.9 yards/carry

Detroit Lions

• Enter Week 3 with 2-1 record

  • Beat Rams in Week 1, lost to Buccaneers in Week 2, and beat Cardinals in Week 3

  • Haven’t created much separation from opponents- Lost by four to Buccaneers. Both wins by seven points or less (Beat Rams in overtime)

• Offense is finding most of success on the ground

  • Rank 4th in EPA/rush, 1st in rushing success rate

  • Averaging 4.8 yards/carry (8th in NFL), 163 rush yards/game (4th)

• Defense great against the run, but vulnerable in passing game

  • Rank 9th in opponent rushing success rate, 22nd in opponent dropback success rate

What’s the Play?

Our model sees some value in backing the Seahawks on the spread in this matchup, but signals more value on the over, which is the bet we are going to make tonight.

Seattle’s defensive numbers look fantastic on paper, as the Seahawks are holding opponents to 132.3 passing yards/game and 116.3 rushing yards/game. However, those numbers are mostly due to the Seahawks having perhaps the easiest schedule in the NFL, as Seattle has faced Bo Nix and the Broncos, Jacoby Brissett and the Patriots, and the Dolphins and their revolving door at the QB position. All three of those offenses entered Week 4 ranked in the bottom-ten of the NFL in EPA/play, and Detroit provides a challenge that Seattle has not yet seen.

Additionally, Seattle’s commitment to the pass can lead to points in bunches. Per TeamRankings, the Seahawks have run the ball on just 40.32% of plays this season, and their success in the pass game will likely continue against a Detroit defense that has looked rusty in that area.

In summary, we expect Detroit to bring Seattle’s defense back to Earth, but believe Geno Smith and company have the tools to match that production. As a result, we’ll back the over here.

The Play: Over 47 (-110)

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Money Line Trends 💰

• Miami Dolphins- 1-2 overall this season, 8-3 as the home team since 2023

• Detroit Lions- 2-1 overall this season, 9-3 as the home team since 2023

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Seattle Seahawks- Over is 2-1 this season, 1-0 as the away team

• Detroit Lions- Over is 7-5 as the home team since 2023

Spread Trends ➕➖

• Seattle Seahawks- 1-1-1 against the spread (ATS) this season

💪 Vikings survive late rally from Packers, advance to 4-0. Sam Darnold threw three touchdown passes, while Jordan Addison scored twice, leading the Minnesota Vikings to a 31-29 victory over the Green Bay Packers. The Vikings built a 28-point lead early and managed to hold off a late Packers comeback, which was fueled by Jordan Love's 389-yard, four-touchdown performance but marred by his three interceptions. Despite Green Bay cutting the deficit to two points in the final minute, Minnesota recovered an onside kick to secure the win and improve to 4-0 for the first time since 2016.

🤕 Rashee Rice gets carted off with knee injury in win over Chargers. Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Rashee Rice left Sunday's game against the Los Angeles Chargers with a right knee injury, sustained after quarterback Patrick Mahomes collided with him while attempting to tackle a defender following an interception. Rice was assisted to the sideline, examined by medical staff, and later carted off to the locker room, with head coach Andy Reid describing the injury as "not good." Rice, the Chiefs' leading receiver this season, could be out for an extended period, adding to the team's injury woes after already losing Isiah Pacheco and Hollywood Brown earlier this month.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- The 1972-73 Philadelphia 76ers own the NBA record for the most losses in a season. How many games did Philadelphia lose that year?

Question #2- Nolan Ryan and Cap Anson hold the record for the longest MLB careers. How many seasons did each player play?

Question #3- Who was the first African-American head coach to win the Super Bowl?

Anyone know what has happened on September 30th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On September 30th…

1962- The New York Mets lose their 120th game of the season. The loss was sustained against the Chicago Cubs, who turned a triple-play to win the game. The 120 losses are the second-most by any team in one season, with the 2024 Chicago White Sox taking over the throne just a few days ago following their 121st loss of the season.

1992- Kansas City Royals legend George Brett records his 3,000th career hit in a 4-0 win over the California Angels. Brett reached the milestone by recording a hit in four of his five at-bats that day, which ended up being 25% of the hits the Royals collected in the game. He would retire 3,154 hits, ranking him 19th on the all-time list.

2018- The New York Yankees hit their 267th home run as a team in a game against the Boston Red Sox. New York would end up losing the game 10-2, but the 267 homers set a new MLB record for one season. The Yankees would go on to hit 306 home runs the following season, but were taken down by the Twins, who hit just one more home run that year to set the new record.

1. 73

2. 27

3. Tony Dungy

MLB Model Predictions ⚾️