In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

Additional Model Predictions & Bonuses ⬇️

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There were plenty of model predictions to go around yesterday across the NFL, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions in our Featured Matchup. That prediction went 1-0 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 0-1

Over/Under Predictions: 1-0

Spread Predictions: 1-0

Featured Matchup: 1-0

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15 MLB games are scheduled to take place today. Our model’s predictions for all 15 matchups can be found below.

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies

Model Predicts- Diamondbacks ML, UNDER 11.5, Rockies +1.5

The Arizona Diamondbacks and Colorado Rockies will continue their three-game series on Tuesday, with the first pitch for Game 2 scheduled to take place at 8:40 PM Eastern.

Colorado got the best of Arizona in Game 1 on Monday, taking home a 3-2 victory thanks to a walk-off throwing error. That win was the fourth in the last five games for the Rockies, while the loss was the third in the last four contests for the Diamondbacks.

Our model projects Arizona to win tonight’s matchup, but it also believes the Rockies are well positioned to keep this game close. Let’s dive into why that is.

Arizona Diamondbacks

• Have lost three of last four games

  • Two losses to Brewers, one loss to Rockies

  • Own -8 run differential in that span

• Pitching staff has been shaky during losing stretch

  • Own 6.94 ERA (30th), 1.68 WHIP (29th), .303 BABIP (19th), and are surrendering 2.23 home runs/9 innings (28th) across last four games

  • Have surrendered 30 runs and nine homers in last four games- both are the most in the MLB

• Starting pitcher- Jordan Montgomery

  • Due for positive regression, but still expected to be bad- 6.25 ERA vs 5.29 xERA

  • Ranks in bottom 3% of MLB in Strikeout rate (14.9%) and xBA (.294)

Colorado Rockies

• Beat Arizona in Game 1 on Monday

  • Won game 3-2. Winning run game in bottom of the ninth inning

  • Recorded just four hits in the game compared to Arizona’s eight

• Offense hasn’t been great recently according to advanced metrics, but is still finding ways to score runs

  • Rank 22nd in wRC+ (80), 24th in BABIP (.243), and 11th in OPS (.715) since September 12th

  • Have scored 24 runs (3rd in MLB) and hit nine home runs (1st in MLB) in that time

• Starting pitcher- Ryan Feltner

  • Due for positive regression- 4.89 ERA vs 4.48 xERA

  • Solid at avoiding barrel- 7.0% Barrel rate ranks in top 36% of MLB

What’s the Play?

The talent gap between these two squads significantly favors Arizona, but we agree with our model that Colorado can cover the run line as a home underdog tonight.

Jordan Montgomery is due to see some better days on the mound, but his 5.29 xERA still ranks in the bottom 6% of the MLB this season and is a sign that he will continue to struggle overall. A large part of the reason why is due to the fact that he surrenders so much contact compared to prior years, as his strikeout rate is down 6.5% from 2023 and is at its lowest mark since the 2019 season. That level of contact could pose some problems tonight, especially with how consistently Colorado is hitting the ball out of the park over the last four games.

Meanwhile, Ryan Feltner has pitched much better as of late, allowing two earned runs or less in four of his last five starts. He also ranks in the top half of the MLB in Hard Hit rate, Ground Ball rate, and Walk rate, per Baseball Savant, signaling that the right-hander has some solid stuff on the mound.

It’s not often we see the Rockies catch fire, but Colorado has plenty of momentum entering this evening and is in position to build on it. As a result, we’ll back the Rockies on the run line.

The Play: Rockies +1.5 (-115)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Cleveland Guardians- 87-64 overall this season, 46-27 as the home team, and 3-0 in last three games

• Boston Red Sox- 75-75 overall this season, 40-35 as the away team

• Philadelphia Phillies- 90-60 overall this season, 38-34 as the away team

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Baltimore Orioles- Over is 80-61-9 this season, 38-31-6 as the home team

• New York Yankees- Over is 80-65-5 this season, 39-33-3 as the away team

Run Line Trends ➕➖

• Colorado Rockies- Run line is 38-29 this season as a home underdog

🙏 MRI results come back clean for Francisco Lindor. New York Mets' shortstop Francisco Lindor received positive news after an MRI on his back showed no serious injury. Though Lindor will miss a few more games, he expects to return before the season ends, depending on how his back responds to treatment. The Mets, currently in the NL wild-card race, will rely on Jose Iglesias and rookie Luisangel Acuña to fill in while Lindor recovers.

💪 Dodgers knock Braves out of playoff position with blowout win. Freddie Freeman hit a three-run homer, leading the Los Angeles Dodgers to a 9-0 victory over the Atlanta Braves, knocking the Braves out of a playoff position. Shohei Ohtani contributed with two RBI groundouts, though he didn’t add to his home run or stolen base totals, and Yoshinobu Yamamoto pitched four strong innings in his second start since returning from injury. The Dodgers capitalized on walks and wild pitches to score nine runs on just four hits, extending their scoreless streak to 15 innings and notching their 13th shutout of the season.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- Sean McVay is the youngest coach to win thee Super Bowl. Which current coach held the title of “Youngest Super Bowl Winner” before McVay?

Question #2- The MLB expanded to 30 teams in 1998, adding which two teams to the league?

Question #3- 44 running backs have won the Heisman Trophy during its history, with the two most recent backs to win the award both attending the University of Alabama. Who are those two players?

Anyone know what has happened on September 17th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On September 17th…

1968- San Francisco Giants pitcher Gaylord Perry throws a no-hitter in a 1-0 win over the St. Louis Cardinals. The win was Perry’s 15th of the season, a performance in which he would strikeout nine hitters and only walk two. It would be the only no-hitter of Perry’s career, one that saw the Hall of Famer post a 3.11 ERA and 3,534 strikeouts.

2000- Former NFL quarterback Dan Marino has his #13 jersey retired by the Miami Dolphins. Marino played his entire pro career with the Dolphins, winning one MVP and becoming a nine-time Pro Bowl selection. He is still part of the Dolphins organization today and has been since 2014, with his role being a special advisor to the team

2004- MLB legend Barry Bonds hits his 700th career home run. The homer came against Padres pitcher Jake Peavy, and it put Bonds in an exclusive club as he became just the third player ever to reach the milestone. Bonds would end his career with 762 dingers, the most in MLB history.

1. Mike Tomlin

2. Arizona Diamondbacks, Tampa Bay Rays

3. Mark Ingram, Derrick Henry