In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

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NCAAF Model Predictions- End of Newsletter

There were plenty of model predictions to go around yesterday across the NCAA, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions in our Featured Matchup. That prediction went 0-1 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 0-1

Over/Under Predictions: 0-1

Spread Predictions: 1-0

Featured Matchup: 0-1

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11 MLB games are scheduled to take place today. Our model’s predictions for all 11 of those matchups can be found below.

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs

Model Predicts- Cubs ML, OVER 7.5, Pirates +1.5

The Pittsburgh Pirates will continue their six-game road trip on Monday evening, with the next stop coming in Chicago, Illinois to battle the Cubs.

Pittsburgh enters this series in the midst of a rough patch, as the Pirates have suffered a loss in five of their last six games. Meanwhile, the Cubs might just be the hottest team in the MLB right now, as Chicago has won six consecutive games and nine of its last ten dating back to August 22nd.

Pittsburgh and Chicago are moving in opposite directions right now, and our model believes that will continue to be the case as it projects the Cubs to win tonight’s ball game. Let’s dive into why that is.

Pittsburgh Pirates

• Lost most recent series vs Guardians over weekend

  • Outscored 10-8 in Game 1 and 6-1 in Game 3. Won 3-0 in Game 2

  • Have now lost five of last six games

• Offense has been among MLB’s best despite recent losses

  • Rank 7th in wRC+ (119), 2nd in BABIP (.359), and 8th in OPS (.790) since August 26th

  • 35 runs scored and .282 batting average both rank in top-11 in MLB since that date

• Starting pitcher- Jared Jones

  • Pitching to expectations- 3.88 ERA vs 4.03 xERA

  • Just recently came off IL- has pitched once since July 3rd

Chicago Cubs

• Enter today on six-game win streak

  • Three wins over Pirates, three wins over Nationals

  • Own +34 run differential in that span. Now just 3.0 games back of NL Wild Card spot

• Offense has been electric during win streak

  • Own 156 wRC+, .414 BABIP, and .908 OPS across the last six games

  • 67 runs scored ranks 1st in MLB. Next closest team has scored 42 (Arizona)

• Starting pitcher- Jameson Taillon

  • Pitching to expectations- 3.85 ERA vs 4.01 xERA

  • Pitches to contact- 18.8% Strikeout rate and 19.7% Whiff rate rank in bottom 20% of MLB

What’s the Play?

The offensive explosion we’ve seen from the Cubs over the last week has been historic, and it is likely unsustainable in the long run. However, we agree with our model that Chicago is in position to stay hot offensively and expect Pittsburgh to bring a few runners around as well, so we will be backing the over here.

We haven’t seen Jared Jones much this summer, but his first start off the IL came against this Cubs team on August 27th. Jones surrendered five hits and five earned runs in that outing, a result of his vulnerability to to the barrel and hard contact. Per Baseball Savant, that has been an issue all season for the rookie, as he ranks in the bottom 12% of the MLB in Barrel and Hard Hit rate, and facing a red hot Cubs offense that just crushed him doesn’t bode well for Pittsburgh.

However, despite the Pirates’ recent losses, this team hasn’t been hitting poorly, and Taillon’s inability to avoid contact puts the Pittsburgh offense in position to pile on runs today as well.

Chicago and Pittsburgh just met in a three-game series last week, a series that saw an average of 21.33 runs scored per game. Banking on that total reaching that level again isn’t advised, but we believe this total can reach at least eight runs tonight.

The Play: Over 7.5 (+100)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Houston Astros- 75-62 overall this season, 5-0 in last five games

• Minnesota Twins- 74-62 overall this season, 35-32 as the away team

• Chicago Cubs- 71-66 overall this season, 9-1 in last ten games, and 6-0 in last six games

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Baltimore Orioles- Over is 75-54-9 this season, 34-29-6 as the home team

• Houston Astros- Under is 78-54-5 this season, 39-26-2 as the away team

Run Line Trends ➕➖

• Pittsburgh Pirates- Run line is 74-62 this season, 54-29 as an underdog

😬 White Sox set new team record for losses in a season. The Chicago White Sox set a franchise record with their 107th loss of the 2024 season after a 2-0 defeat to the New York Mets on Sunday. This marks their 40th loss in the last 44 games, making them only the second modern-era team to endure such a cold streak. The White Sox are on pace to finish with 126 losses, which would break the modern-era record, and their current .225 winning percentage is the lowest since 1901.

🐻 Cubs continue offensive dominance in win over Nationals. Dansby Swanson led the Chicago Cubs with four hits, while Jordan Wicks pitched five solid innings, helping the team secure a 14-1 victory over the Washington Nationals, marking their sixth straight win. The Cubs, who had 18 hits and scored 99 runs over their last 10 games, wrapped up an 8-1 road trip as they push for an NL wild-card spot. Washington, now 15 games under .500, struggled defensively, committing three errors and allowing the Cubs to pad their lead with a seven-run ninth inning.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- Russell Westbrook holds the NBA record for career triple-doubles, but three players rank higher than him when it comes to playoff triple-doubles. Can you name all three players?

Question #2- Eight players in NFL history have rushed for over 2,000 yards in a season, with two doing so as a member of the Tennessee Titans. Who were those two players?

Question #3- Sidney Crosby is the youngest player in NHL history to record 100 points in a season, doing so at just 18 years old. How many times has Crosby reached the 100 point milestone in his career?

Anyone know what has happened on September 2nd throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On September 2nd…

1962- St. Louis Cardinals first baseman Stan Musial records his 3,516th career hit in a 4-3 loss to the New York Mets. The hit enabled Musial to surpass Tris Speaker on the all-time list, putting him in second place behind only Ty Cobb. Musial would end his career with 3,630 hits, good enough to rank him fourth all-time behind Pete Rose, Cobb, and Hank Aaron.

1965- Chicago Cubs slugger Ernie Banks hits his 400th career home run in a 5-3 win against the St. Louis Cardinals. Banks’ milestone homer came against Cardinals pitcher Curt Simmons, who coincidentally was the same pitcher that Willie Mays hit his 400th home run against two years prior. Banks would end his Hall of Fame career with 512 home runs, ranking him 23rd all-time.

1978- New York Yankees right fielder Reggie Jackson hits his 20th home run of the season in a 6-2 win over the Seattle Mariners. Hitting 20 homers in a single season was quite common for Jackson, so common that he became the 19th player in MLB history to hit 20 homers in 11 straight seasons. He would end his 21-year career with 16 seasons of at least 20 home runs, with his last one coming in 1985.

1. Magic Johnson, LeBron James, Nikola Jokic

2. Chris Johnson, Derrick Henry

3. 6

NCAAF Model Predictions🏈