In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

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There were plenty of model predictions to go around yesterday across the NFL, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions in our Featured Matchup. That prediction went 1-0 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 11-2

Over/Under Predictions: 10-3

Spread Predictions: 8-4-1

Featured Matchup: 1-0

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One NFL game is scheduled to take place today. Our model’s predictions for that matchup can be found below.

New York Jets @ San Francisco 49ers

Model Predicts- 49ers ML, UNDER 43.5, 49ers -3.5

The New York Jets and San Francisco 49ers will go head-to-head in the first Monday Night Football game of the 2024 season, with kickoff scheduled to take place at 8:15 PM Eastern.

New York enters this matchup off a season in which it finished with a 7-10 record, however, the Jets were without star quarterback Aaron Rodgers for that 17-game stretch, and now have him back in the lineup. Meanwhile, San Francisco won the NFC West division with a 12-5 record, and extended its season to the Super Bowl, where the 49ers lost to the Kansas City Chiefs.

Sportsbooks make the 49ers just over a field goal favorite in this matchup, but our model expects San Francisco to win this game by nearly a full touchdown in a low-scoring affair. Let’s dive into why that is.

New York Jets

• Will have key new pieces on offense this season

  • Aaron Rodgers coming back from achilles injury- replaces Zach Wilson

  • Also added WR Mike Williams, OT Tyron Smith

• Rodgers expected to boost offense significantly

  • Ranked 32nd in EPA/play, 29th in points per game (15.9) last season

• Defense was elite last season despite what poor record may indicate

  • Ranked third in opponent EPA/play, second in opponent success rate

  • Held opponents to 4.6 yards/play (1st in NFL), 20.9 points per game (10th in NFL)

San Francisco 49ers

• Enter season off Super Bowl appearance in 2023

  • Lost to Kansas City Chiefs by score of 25-22

  • Went into halftime up 10-3, but outscored 22-12 in second half and overtime

• Like New York, had one of top defenses last season

  • Held opponents to fourth-fewest points per game (18.8) and eighth-fewest yards per play (5.1)

  • Much better defending the pass than the run- bottom 10 in NFL in opponent EPA/rush and rush success rate, but top-seven in opponent EPA/dropback and dropback success rate

• Came to terms with two key players on contract extensions

  • OL Trent Williams and WR Brandon Aiyuk received extensions, but neither practiced/played much during training camp and preseason

What’s the Play?

Our model gives a significant edge to San Francisco here, but we’d rather back the under in this spot than pick a side.

Both New York and San Francisco possess an elite defense, which is likely the largest factor in this game. The Jets and 49ers each held opponents to 5.1 yards per play or fewer last season, and both units were strong in the red zone, with the Jets holding their opponents to a touchdown on 48.98% of red zone drives and the 49ers doing so at 52.54%. Both of those marks ranked top-11 in the NFL.

Additionally, although both offenses are talented, there are still tons of question marks. Rodgers is coming off an achilles tear that sidelined him for all of last season, and two key offensive stars in Trent Williams and Brandon Aiyuk are likely far away from their top form after taking zero reps in preseason games and holding out of training camp.

We expect both defenses to take over this game, which will make points hard to come by. As a result, we’ll back the under in the first Monday Night Football game of the season.

The Play: Under 43.5 (-115)

Money Line Trends 💰

• San Francisco 49ers- 14-6 overall last season, 7-3 as a home favorite

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• New York Jets- Under was 10-7 overall last season, 8-6 as an underdog

Spread Trends ➕➖

• San Francisco 49ers- 9-11 against the spread (ATS) last season as a favorite

💰 Cowboys reach historic extension with QB Dak Prescott. The Dallas Cowboys and quarterback Dak Prescott agreed to a historic four-year, $240 million extension, making him the highest-paid player in NFL history with a $60 million annual salary. The deal includes $231 million in guaranteed money, surpassing Deshaun Watson's previous record, and was finalized just before the Cowboys' Week 1 game. Prescott's contract status had been a major offseason focus, as he was set to become a free agent in 2025, but the Cowboys secured him for the future while also extending wide receiver CeeDee Lamb.

💪 Patriots take down Bengals to claim largest upset of weekend. Jacoby Brissett led the Patriots to a 16-10 win over the Bengals in Jerod Mayo’s debut as head coach, relying on Rhamondre Stevenson’s 120 rushing yards and a strong defensive performance. Brissett, chosen to start over rookie Drake Maye, managed the game well, while Cincinnati struggled with turnovers and offensive mistakes, including a costly fumble and failed red zone opportunities. Joe Burrow's Bengals made a late push, but the Patriots' defense held strong, and Stevenson’s key runs allowed New England to run out the clock for the victory.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- The Seattle Seahawks are often thought to have the loudest stadium in the NFL, creating a large home-field advantage. What is the name of Seattle’s stadium?

Question #2- Who is the only player in NBA history to have won the MVP, Coach of the Year, and Executive of the Year awards?

Question #3- Who is the only player in MLB history to record at least 30 home runs, 30 stolen bases, 30 doubles, and 20 triples in the same season?

Anyone know what has happened on September 9th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On September 9th…

1965- Los Angeles Dodgers legend Sandy Koufax throws his fourth career no-hitter and first career perfect game. The performance came in a 1-0 victory over the Chicago Cubs, a game in which Koufax threw 113 pitches are recorded 14 strikeouts. Amazingly, Cubs pitcher Bob Hendley almost had a no-hitter of his own too, allowing just one hit in eight innings.

1992- MLB legend Robin Yount becomes to the 17th player in league history to reach 3,000 hits. Yount, who played his entire career with the Milwaukee Brewers, is just one of three Brewers players to reach the 3,000 hit mark, and the only player to win two MVPs. He would finish his career with 3,142 hits, ranking him 21st all-time.

2021- Former NFL quarterback Tom Brady starts his 300th career regular season game. The milestone came in a 31-29 Tampa Bay Buccaneers win over the Dallas Cowboys, and Brady became the first player in NFL history to reach the mark. He would end his career with 333 starts in the regular season across 23 seasons.

1. Lumen Field

2. Larry Bird

3. Jimmy Rollins

MLB Model Predictions ⚾️