In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

Additional Model Predictions & Bonuses ⬇️

Sportsbook Offers & Bonuses- Click Here

There were plenty of model predictions to go around yesterday across the MLB, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions in our Featured Matchup. That prediction went 0-1 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 6-7

Over/Under Predictions: 4-11

Run Line Predictions: 8-5

Featured Matchup: 0-1

15 MLB games are scheduled to take place today. Our model’s predictions for all 15 matchups can be found below.

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals

Model Predicts- Royals ML, UNDER 10, Royals +1.5

The Arizona Diamondbacks will continue their six-game road trip on Tuesday, facing the Kansas City Royals in Game 2 of a three-game series.

Arizona came up well short of victory in Game 1 on Monday, suffering a 10-4 loss to Kansas City. That loss now makes the Diamondbacks 2-2 on their current road trip and 51-50 for the season, while the Royals own a 56-45 record and have yet to lose a game since play resumed following the All-Star break.

The Royals have looked unstoppable over the past several days, and our model projects Kansas City to find the win column again tonight. Let’s dive into why that is.

Arizona Diamondbacks

• Lost Game 1 of series to Royals

  • Outscored 10-4. Recorded eight hits as a team

  • Surrendered 15 hits to Kansas City. All 10 runs were scored from innings 2-6

• Offense has been ice cold since returning from All-Star break

  • Rank 22nd in wRC+ (81), 20th in BABIP (.261), and 23rd in OPS (.634)

  • Held to four runs or less in all four contests

• Starting pitcher- Jordan Montgomery

  • Due for positive regression- 6.44 ERA vs 5.14 xERA

  • Ranks in bottom 5% of MLB in strikeout rate (15.1%) and xBA (.294)

Kansas City Royals

• Enter tonight on four-game win streak

  • Three wins over White Sox, one win over Diamondbacks

  • Outscoring opponents 27-7 in that stretch

• Red-hot offense is responsible for recent surge

  • Rank 5th in wRC+ (132), 1st inBABIP (.370), and 5th in OPS (.854)

  • 27 runs scored since All-Star break ranks 2nd in MLB behind Oakland (30)

• Starting pitcher- Alec Marsh

  • Due for slight regression- 4.52 ERA vs 4.94 xERA

  • Vulnerable to barrel contact (10.2% Barrel rate)

What’s the Play?

There aren’t many good things to say about tonight’s starting pitchers, but we agree with our model that Alec Marsh can do just enough on the mound to propel the Royals to their fifth-straight victory.

Several metrics show that Montgomery is due to pitch better in the future, but that doesn’t necessarily mean we should expect many solid performances. As previously mentioned, Montgomery’s xERA sits above the 5.00 mark and his strikeout rate in down 6.3% from a season ago, showing that opponents are easily sizing him up and should continue to do so.

To make matters worse, Arizona is in quite the slump offensively, and we don’ think the group will be capable of taking advantage of Alec Marsh’s flaws, at least not enough to match the damage that Kansas City creates against Montgomery. As a result, we’ll grab the Royals on the money line at +100.

The Play: Royals ML (+100)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Cleveland Guardians- 59-40 overall this season, 31-14 as the home team

• Kansas City Royals- 56-45 overall this season, 35-18 as the home team, and 4-0 in last four games

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Atlanta Braves- Under is 59-35-5 this season, highest win percentage in MLB (62.8%)

• Kansas City Royals- Under is 57-41-3 this season, 29-24 as the home team

Run Line Trends ➕➖

• Los Angeles Angels- Run line is 56-44 this season, 27-19 as a road underdog

⬇️ Dodgers DFA Paxton, promote River Ryan from minor leagues. The Los Angeles Dodgers designated pitcher James Paxton for assignment and promoted their No. 4 prospect, River Ryan. Paxton posted a 4.43 ERA with 64 strikeouts over 89 1/3 innings in 2024 after signing a one-year, $7-million deal, while Ryan has a 2.22 ERA in the minors this season. Manager Dave Roberts acknowledged the difficulty of the decision, noting the team's need to make room for returning starters Tyler Glasnow and Clayton Kershaw.

💪 Robbie Ray to make first start of season on Wednesday. Robbie Ray will make his first start for the San Francisco Giants on Wednesday against the Los Angeles Dodgers, after recovering from surgery on his left elbow. Ray, acquired from the Seattle Mariners in January, has made 10 rehab appearances and impressed in his final minor-league start. The former Cy Young winner, who is earning $23 million this season, has a lifetime 3.96 ERA and 1,505 strikeouts over 10 big-league seasons.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- The Philadelphia 76ers drafted what player from LSU with the No.1 overall pick in the 2016 NBA Draft?

Question #2- Prior to joining the St. Louis Cardinals in 2019, Paul Goldschmidt played for what MLB team from 2011-18?

Question #3- Three offensive tackles were selected within the top-four picks of the 2013 NFL Draft. Two of those players were Eric Fisher and Luke Joeckel, but who was the third?

Anyone know what has happened on July 23rd throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On July 23rd…

1978- Philadelphia Phillies pitcher Steve Carlton records his 200th career win. Carlton became the 78th pitcher in MLB history to reach the milestone, which came in a 13-2 Phillies win over the Houston Astros. Carlton would end his career with 392 wins, which currently ranks 11th on the all-time list.

1994- Former MLB player Don Mattingly records his 2,000th career hit. The milestone came in a 7-2 Yankees victory over the Los Angeles Angels, a game in which Mattingly recorded two hits in four at-bats. Mattingly became the sixth Yankee to record 2,000 hits in his career, and would retire with 2,153 hits.

2000- Tiger Woods wins the British Open at Royal Lytham & St. Anne’s. Woods took home the Open title, the first of his career, in dominant fashion, beating runner-ups Thomas Bjorn and Ernie Els by eight strokes. The win also made Woods the youngest golfer to win all four majors, doing so at the age of 24.

1. Ben Simmons

2. Arizona Diamondbacks

3. Lane Johnson