Will Magic Avoid Elimination?

One Best Bet Today

In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter presented by SportSense Premium

  • Yesterday’s Model Recap

  • NBA Model Predictions, Analysis, Trends, and News

  • Trivia Questions

  • On This Day in History…

Additional Model Predictions ⬇️

NHL Model Predictions- Click Here

MLB Model Predictions- Click Here

Yesterday’s Model Recap

There were plenty of model predictions to go around yesterday across the MLB, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions in our Featured Matchup. That prediction went 0-1 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model performed below.

MLB Model Results

Money Line Predictions: 3-3

Over/Under Predictions: 2-3-1

Run Line Predictions: 3-3

Featured Matchup: 0-1

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NBA🏀

Orlando Magic forward Franz Wagner (NBA.com)

Today’s Model Predictions

Two NBA games are scheduled to take place today. Our model’s predictions for both matchups can be found below.

Featured Matchup🎰

Cleveland Cavaliers @ Orlando Magic
Model Predicts- Magic ML, OVER 199, Magic -4

The Cleveland Cavaliers and Orlando Magic will make the journey back to the Sunshine State on Friday as both teams get ready to square off in Game 6 of this best-of-seven series.

Cleveland enters tonight’s matchup with a 3-2 series lead, with all three wins coming at home. The Cavaliers’ most recent victory came just a few days ago in Game 5, a 104-103 win that was sealed with clutch free throws from Donovan Mitchell.

The Magic have their backs against the wall, but the home team has won every game in this series and our model projects that trend to continue tonight. Let’s dive into why that is.

Cleveland Cavaliers
  • Pulled off narrow win in Game 5 to take series lead

    • Won game 104-103. Shot 43% from floor overall and 35% from three

    • Five players scored 12 points or more, led by Donovan Mitchell (28) and Darius Garland (23)

  • Have played horrific basketball while on road in this series

    • Own -34.8 Net Rating. Consists of 92.5 Offensive Rating and 127.3 Defensive Rating. For comparison, own +8.4 Net Rating at home in playoffs

    • Averaging 86 points per game while shooting 42.9% overall and 23.5% from three

  • Injuries- Jarrett Allen is questionable. Craig Porter Jr., Ty Jerome, and Dean Wade are OUT

Orlando Magic
  • Have outperformed Cavs in series despite being down

    • Own +8.5 Net Rating in series- 4th best amongst playoff teams

    • Shooting 44.3% overall and 30.7% from three compared to Cleveland’s 43.0% and 28.7% (NBA.com)

  • Dominated home court all season long

    • 29-12 at home in regular season, 18-23 on road

    • +7.8 Net Rating (5th best in NBA). 115.5 Offensive Rating home compared to 110.4 on road

  • Injuries- Gary Harris is questionable

What’s the Play?

Although the Magic came close in Game 5, the road team has yet to win a game in this series, and we will back that trend to continue tonight by taking the Magic in this spot.

Orlando’s production at home in the regular season compared to its production on the road was night and day, as evidenced by the +11.3-point swing in Net Rating simply due to a change in venue. An even larger disparity has occurred in the postseason, with the Magic seeing a +43.5-point swing in Net Rating while playing on its home court, and it is largely due to Orlando’s 127.3 Offensive Rating in two home playoff games, the best rating among any team in the postseason.

The Magic have proven to have one of the best home court advantages, and staying competitive on the road in Game 5 after poor showings in Games 1 and 2 shows this squad is rounding into form. Take the Magic to win and cover and the spread.

The Play: Magic -4 (-110)

Relevant Betting Trends

  • Orlando Magic- 49-38 overall this season, 29-12 as the home team

  • Dallas Mavericks- 53-34 overall this season, 27-17 as the away team

  • Cleveland Cavaliers- Over is 2-1 in last three games, 1-1 as the away team during postseason

  • Orlando Magic- 54-33 against the spread (ATS) this season, 29-13 ATS as the home team

News Around the League

🗽 Knicks beat 76ers, advance to second round. Josh Hart's go-ahead 3-pointer with 24.4 seconds left lifted the New York Knicks over the Philadelphia 76ers 118-115 in Game 6, securing their spot in the second round of the playoffs. Jalen Brunson's impressive performance of 41 points and 12 assists led the Knicks, who will face the Indiana Pacers in the Eastern Conference semifinals. Despite a strong effort from Joel Embiid, who scored 39 points, the 76ers couldn't overcome the Knicks' late-game heroics, with Donte DiVincenzo sealing the win with two free throws.

💪 Pacers dominate Game 6, knock Bucks out of playoffs. T.J. McConnell and Obi Toppin led the Indiana Pacers to a dominant 120-98 victory over the Milwaukee Bucks in Game 6, securing their first Eastern Conference semifinal appearance in a decade. McConnell, bouncing back from a rough Game 5, scored 20 points and recorded nine assists, while Toppin contributed 21 points. The Pacers controlled the game from the start, with a 23-3 first-quarter run setting the tone, and they maintained their lead despite several comeback attempts by the Bucks, who played without Giannis Antetokounmpo.

Trivia Section🧠

Former Miami Dolphins wide receiver Kenny Stills (FOX Sports)

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- Blake Griffin and Trae Young were both star basketball players at what current Big 12 school?

Question #2- Former NFL wide receiver Kenny Stills played for four teams in his career- the New Orleans Saints, Miami Dolphins, Houston Texans, and Buffalo Bills. What team did he play for twice?

Question #3- Three current Philadelphia Phillies players were selected in the top-13 of the 2014 MLB Draft. Two are Kyle Schwarber and Aaron Nola, but who is the third?

On This Day in History🗓

American golfer Brooks Koepka (Ian Maule/Getty Images)

Anyone know what has happened on May 3rd throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On May 3rd…

1980- Texas Rangers pitcher Ferguson Jenkins records his 100th career win with an American League team. Jenkins picked up the win in a 3-2 defeat of the Baltimore Orioles, a game in which he pitched all nine innings and recorded eight strikeouts. The win forever cemented Jenkins in the history books, as he became only the fourth pitcher to ever win 100 games in the American and National Leagues.

1990- American golfer Brooks Koepka is born in West Palm Beach, Florida. Koepka stormed on the golf scene while playing at the collegiate level at Florida State, where he won three events and was a three-time All-American. He is now a member of LIV Golf, and won nine events, including five majors, beforehand while on the PGA Tour.

2023- Los Angeles Angels star Shohei Ohtani records his 500th career strikeout. Ohtani reached the milestone in a 6-4 win over the St. Louis Cardinals, a game in which he went 3-for-5 at the plate with one RBI in addition to his performance on the mound. Ohtani also became just the second player in MLB history to record 500 strikeouts as a pitcher and 100 home runs as a hitter, joining Babe Ruth on the list.

Trivia Answers

  1. University of Oklahoma

  2. New Orleans Saints

  3. Trea Turner