Will Milwaukee Stay Hot in South Beach?

In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

Additional Model Predictions ⬇️ 

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There were plenty of model predictions to go around yesterday across the NFL, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions in our Featured Matchup. That prediction went 0-1 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 0-1

Over/Under Predictions: 0-1

Spread Predictions: 0-1

Featured Matchup: 0-1

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Five NBA games are scheduled to take place today. Our model’s predictions for all five matchups can be found below.

Milwaukee Bucks @ Miami Heat

Model Predicts- Heat ML, UNDER 224.5, Bucks +2.5

The Milwaukee Bucks will begin a short one-game road trip on Tuesday, taking their talents to Miami, Florida to battle the Miami Heat.

Milwaukee enters this Eastern Conference battle as one of the hottest teams in the NBA, with the Bucks winning four-consecutive games to boost their record to 8-9. Miami has also found its stride, winning two-straight games to better its record from 5-7 to 7-7 through 14 games.

Both Milwaukee and Miami are looking to stay hot, but our model believes Miami’s win streak will be the one to continue tonight. Let’s dive into why that is.

Milwaukee Bucks

• Enter tonight on four-game win streak

  • Wins over Rockets, Bulls, Pacers, and Hornets

  • Own +35 point differential in that span

• Offense has seen drastic improvement during winning streak

  • First 13 games of season- 110.9 Offensive Rating (18th in NBA). Shot 47.2% overall and 35.8% from three

  • Last four games- 118.1 Offensive Rating (6th in NBA). Shooting 50.6% overall and 43.0% from three

• Several key players listed on injury report

  • Khris Middleton remains OUT. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Taurean Prince, MarJon Beauchamp, and AJ Johnson are questionable

Miami Heat

• Enter today on two-game win streak

  • One win over 76ers, one win over Mavericks

  • Own +22 point differential in that span

• Defense has been strongest part of play over last two games

  • Own 96.7 Defensive Rating during win streak- 3rd in NBA

  • Best defense has come on perimeter- Opponents shooting 24.7% from three

• Offense scoring in bunches across last five games

  • Averaging 116.8 points/game (10th in NBA) while shooting 44.5% overall and 36.3% from three

What’s the Play?

Our model doesn’t see much value in backing the total in this matchup, as it is projecting just under 224.5 points to be scored. However, it does see value in backing Milwaukee on the spread as a road underdog.

Miami’s defense has been the best part of its winning streak, but its stellar 96.7 Defensive Rating in that span is largely skewed due to facing a bad 76ers offense. The Heat posted an 84.6 Defensive Rating against a Philadelphia team that is currently ranked as the third-worst offense in the league, but followed that performance with a 106.3 Defensive Rating and allowing 118 points to a strong Mavericks team. Dallas is far more comparable to Milwaukee, and we expect a vastly improved Bucks offense to stay competitive with the Heat just like the Mavericks did.

Additionally, Milwaukee has been lighting it up from three as of late, hitting at a 43.0% clip during its win streak. Even with some key players questionable, the Bucks will have their main perimeter shooters in Damian Lillard, Brook Lopez, Gary Trent Jr, and AJ Green in the lineup, giving them a great chance to stay hot from beyond the arc.

We expect Miami’s defense to come back to Earth in a much tougher matchup against an improved Bucks offense. As a result, we’ll take Milwaukee at +2.5.

The Play: Bucks +2.5 (-110)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Miami Heat- 7-7 overall this season, 3-3 as the home team, and 2-0 in last two games

• Houston Rockets- 12-6 overall this season, 4-3 as the away team

• San Antonio Spurs- 9-8 overall this season, 3-0 in the last three games

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Milwaukee Bucks- Under is 10-7 this season, 4-3 as the away team

• Houston Rockets- Under is 10-7-1 this season, 5-2 as the away team

Spread Trends ➕➖

• Houston Rockets- 12-6 against the spread (ATS) this season, 3-1 ATS as an underdog

☀️ Suns plan to get two stars back in lineup on Tuesday. Phoenix Suns stars Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal are expected to play in Tuesday's NBA Cup matchup against the Los Angeles Lakers, marking their return from injuries. Durant, who has missed seven games with a calf strain, was averaging 27.6 points and 6.6 rebounds in nine games this season, while Beal, sidelined for five games, has contributed 17.8 points and 3.7 assists per contest. The Suns, currently eighth in the Western Conference with a 9-7 record, have struggled without the duo, winning just once during Durant's absence.

💰 VanVleet fined $50,000 for profane language directed at referee. Houston Rockets guard Fred VanVleet was fined $50,000 for using profane language toward officials late in Saturday's 104-98 loss to the Portland Trail Blazers, following a controversial non-call on his game-tying shot attempt. The NBA's last-two-minute report confirmed a foul should have been called on Blazers forward Toumani Camara for making contact with VanVleet. This isn't VanVleet's first fine for referee-related incidents, as he was penalized $30,000 in March 2023 for criticizing an official during a postgame press conference.

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Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- Three quarterbacks were selected in the top-10 of the 2011 NFL Draft. Two of those players were Cam Newton and Jake Locker, but who was the third?

Question #2- The Chicago Blackhawks defeated what team in seven games to win the 2013 Stanley Cup Finals?

Question #3- Only one NBA player averaged more than 14.0 rebounds/game during the 2016-17 season. Who is that player?

Anyone know what has happened on November 26th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On November 26th…

1980- Philadelphia Phillies third baseman Mike Schmidt is named the National League MVP. The honor came after a dominant season for Schmidt, one that saw the third baseman record 48 home runs, 121 RBIs, and 104 runs scored. It was the first MVP award for Schmidt in his Hall of Fame career, and he would win two more, one in 1981 and one in 1986.

1995- Miami Dolphins quarterback Dan Marino throws four touchdown passes in a 36-28 loss to the Indianapolis Colts. The performance enabled Marino to reach 343 career touchdown passes, which set a new NFL record. Marino would end his career with 420 touchdown passes, which currently ranks seventh on the NFL’s all-time list.

2010- The 75th Iron Bowl is played between the Auburn Tigers and Alabama Crimson Tide in Tuscaloosa, Alabama. The Crimson Tide came out of the gates red hot, scoring 21 points in the first quarter, but would fall short of the victory as the Tigers stormed back to win the game 28-27. The victory kept Auburn’s perfect season alive, as the Tigers moved to 12-0, while Alabama fell to 9-3.

1. Blaine Gabbert

2. Boston Bruins

3. Hassan Whiteside