In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter sponsored by Betstamp…

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There were plenty of model predictions to go around yesterday across the MLB, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions in our Featured Matchup. That prediction went 1-0 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 8-7

Over/Under Predictions: 10-4-1

Run Line Predictions: 10-5

Featured Matchup: 1-0

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15 MLB games are scheduled to take place today. Our model’s predictions for all 15 matchups can be found below.

Minnesota Twins @ Pittsburgh Pirates

Model Predicts- Twins ML, OVER 8, Pirates +1.5

The Minnesota Twins and Pittsburgh Pirates will wrap up their three-game series on Sunday afternoon, with the first pitch scheduled to take place at 1:35 PM Eastern.

Pittsburgh has been in firm control of this series from the opening pitch, shutting out Minnesota in Games 1 and 2. Those victories now make the Pirates 5-2 in the month of June, while the losses extended the Twins’ losing skid to five games.

Minnesota can’t seem to figure things out at the plate right now, but our model still believes the Twins are in position to win today’s game. Let’s take a look at why that is.

Minnesota Twins

• Have yet to score a run vs Pirates in series

  • Outscored 3-0 in Game 1, 4-0 in Game 2

  • Have generated 14 hits and three walks in series

• Have now lost six of seven games played since June 1st

  • Offense is main culprit for struggles- 74 wRC+ (25th), .604 OPS (26th), and .234 BABIP (28th) in June

  • Lack of runs has led to -20 run differential since June 1st

• Starting pitcher- Bailey Ober

  • Due to see positive regression- 4.93 ERA vs 4.03 xERA

  • Fly balls and barrel contact are major concerns- ranks in bottom 15% of MLB in Barrel rate (10.3%), bottom 4% in groud ball rate (29.7%)

Pittsburgh Pirates

• Starting to find rhythm again after slow month of May

  • 5-2 record since June 1st. 12-14 record in May

  • Have picked up a series win over Dodgers and Twins this month

• Offense has been key to recent success

  • Own 104 wRC+ (15th), .340 BABIP (3rd), and .726 OPS (13th) in June

  • Own +14 run differential in June. +7 run differential in series with Twins

• Starting pitcher- Jared Jones

  • Pitching to expectations- 3.25 ERA vs 3.45 xERA

  • Vulnerable to lots of hard contact- ranks in bottom 26% of MLB in Hard Hit rate (42.1%) and Barrel rate (10.1%)

What’s the Play?

Nothing has broken the Twins way in this series, but we agree with our model that this is a good spot to buy low on Minnesota.

Most of the damage that Pittsburgh has done at the plate this month has come against left-handed pitching, which the Pirates won’t be facing often today with Ober on the mound for the Twins. Per FanGraphs, Pittsburgh owns a 147 wRC+, .432 BABIP, and .914 OPS against southpaws this month, but against right handers we see the Pirates’ OPS fall to 87 while their BABIP and OPS drop to .305 and .661, respectively. There is a clear difference in production with righties on the mound, and Ober’s looming positive regression likely puts him in a great spot to have a solid outing.

Meanwhile, Jared Jones has had some struggles on the mound after a hot start to the season, posting a 4.13 ERA, 4.45 xFIP, and just a 19.7% strikeout rate across his last five starts. Hitters have started to figure him out, and we believe that provides the Twins with an opportunity to get the offense back on track today and avoid the sweep.

The Play: Twins ML (-110)

Money Line Trends 💰

• San Francisco Giants- 32-33 overall this season, 3-0 in last three games

• Baltimore Orioles- 41-22 overall this season, 20-10 as the away team, and 7-3 in last ten games

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• San Francisco Giants- Over is 34-29-2 this season, 21-12-1 as the away team

• Houston Astros- Under is 39-23-2 this season, highest win percentage in MLB (62.9%)

Run Line Trends ➕➖

• Washington Nationals- Run line is 38-26 this season, 14-12 as home underdog

💪 Teoscar Hernandez leads Dodgers to dominant win at Yankee Stadium. Teoscar Hernández hit two home runs and drove in six runs, including a grand slam, to lead the Los Angeles Dodgers to an 11-3 victory over the New York Yankees on Saturday night, securing their second consecutive win in this series. Kiké Hernández also homered, and rookie Gavin Stone earned his third straight win with support from Shohei Ohtani’s RBI single. Despite Aaron Judge’s two home runs for the Yankees, the Dodgers, with significant contributions from their bullpen and a strong offense, will look to complete a series sweep in their first Bronx visit since 2016.

🔥 Reds catch fire, win seventh straight game on Saturday. TJ Friedl homered and drove in three runs, while Andrew Abbott pitched five solid innings to help the Cincinnati Reds secure their seventh consecutive win with a 4-3 victory over the Chicago Cubs on Saturday. The Cubs threatened in the ninth inning, but Justin Wilson earned his first save by inducing crucial outs from Ian Happ and Mike Tauchman. The Reds, who have won the first three games of this series, now sit in second place in the NL Central, 6.5 games back of the Milwaukee Brewers.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- 2006 was a tremendous year for running backs in the NFL, seeing 23 players at the position reach the 1,000 yard mark. One player stood out among the rest though, rushing for 1,815 yards that season. Who was that player?

Question #2- The Philadelphia Phillies have three players on the roster that were selected in the top 13 picks of the 2014 MLB Draft. Two of those players are Trea Turner and Kyle Schwarber, but who is the third?

Question #3- Len Bias was selected second overall in the 1986 NBA Draft by the Boston Celtics, but tragically passed away shortly after and never played in an NBA game. What college did Bias attend?

Anyone know what has happened on June 9th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On June 9th…

1914- Pittsburgh Pirates shortstop Honus Wagner becomes the second player in MLB history to reach the 3,000 hit milestone, joining Cap Anson as the only players on the list. Wagner would end his career with 3,420 hits, which ranks seventh in MLB history. His consistency at the plate made Wagner an eight-time NL batting champion and five-time NL RBI leader, which later resulted in Wagner being inducted into the Baseball Hall of Fame in 1936.

1930- Paavo Nurmi runs six miles in 29 minutes and 36 seconds, setting a new World Record in the event. A native of Finland, Nurmi dominated distance running in the early 1900’s, winning nine olympic gold medals from 1920-1928. Those medals were won in events ranging from the 1500 to the 10000 meter run, truly displaying how dominant Nurmi was in the world of distance running.

1939- American basketball broadcaster Dick Vitale is born in Passaic, New Jersey. Prior to becoming a broadcaster, Vitale was a coach at the collegiate and pro level as an assistant at Rutgers University before becoming the head coach at the University of Detroit, where he posted a 79-29 record in four years while leading the Titans to the Sweet 16 in 1977. Vitale would then become the head coach of the Detroit Pistons, but was fired shortly into his second season after going 34-60 in 94 games. Now, you can hear Vitale’s voice all over ESPN, where he has been a broadcaster since 1979.

1. LaDainian Tomlinson

2. Aaron Nola

3. University of Maryland