Will Montreal and Columbus Pour on the Goals?

In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

Additional Model Predictions ⬇️ 

NBA Model Predictions- Click Here

NCAAB Model Predictions- Click Here 

There were plenty of model predictions to go around yesterday across the NBA, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions in our Featured Matchup. That prediction went 1-0 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 4-1

Over/Under Predictions: 4-1

Spread Predictions: 4-1

Featured Matchup: 1-0

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15 NHL games are scheduled to take place today. Our model’s predictions for all 15 matchups can be found below.

Montreal Canadiens @ Columbus Blue Jackets

Model Predicts- Canadiens ML, OVER 6.5, Canadiens +1.5

The Montreal Canadiens will begin a three-game road trip on Wednesday, with the first stop coming in Columbus, Ohio to battle the Blue Jackets.

Montreal will begin its road trip in the midst of a small slump, one that has seen the Canadiens lose two-consecutive games, including a loss to the Utah Hockey Club last night. Meanwhile, Columbus is playing its best hockey so far this season, posting three consecutive wins to improve its record to 9-9-2.

Our model sees some value in backing the Canadiens as a road underdog here, but we are more focused on the total in this matchup. Let’s dive into why that is.

Montreal Canadiens

• Enter tonight off loss against Utah Hockey Club

  • Lost game 3-2 in overtime. Second loss in a row

  • Offensive attack was nonexistent- recorded just 13 shots on goal in game

• Defense continues to be team’s largest issue

  • Rank 32nd in Goals Against per 60 minutes (GA/60) in 5-on-5 situations with 3.53

  • Surrendering tons of pressure on net- Rank 24th in opponent shots on goal/game (30.1) and 30th in High-Danger Scoring Chances Against per 60 minutes (HDCA/60) in 5-on-5 with 12.50

• Expected goalie- Cayden Primeau

  • Owns .827 Save % in 5-on-5 situations- ranks 74 out of 76 goalies

  • Ranks 65th in Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) with -5.6

Columbus Blue Jackets

• Enter today on three-game win streak

  • Wins over Bruins, Lightning, and Hurricanes

  • Own +6 goal differential in that span

• Offense has been dominant during win streak

  • Posting 3.72 Goals For per 60 minutes (GF/60) in 5-on-5 situations over last three-games- ranks first in NHL in that time

  • Scoring opportunities coming in bunches- averaging 34.3 shots on goal/game

• Expected goalie- Elvis Merzlikins

  • Owns .905 Save % in 5-on-5. Ranks 57th in GSAx (-3.4)

What’s the Play?

It is tough to trust the Montreal offensive attack, but we agree with our model that the Canadiens will contribute enough offense alongside the Blue Jackets to push this total over 6.5 goals.

Montreal is bad when it comes to stopping opponents from producing high-danger scoring chances, but Columbus isn’t exactly any better. Per Natural Stat Trick, Columbus ranks 27th in HDCA/60 in 5-on-5 this season with 11.94, with that number rising to 14.04 across the last three games despite the Blue Jackets emerging victorious in all three contests. That is a weakness any team can exploit, and we expect Montreal to do so.

Additionally, neither team boasts a strong goaltender in this matchup, as Cayden Primeau and Elvis Merzlikins rank outside the top-50 in GSAx this season. Neither one has been reliable in net, giving Montreal and Columbus a great chance to light the lamp.

Our model gives the over a 54.24% chance to hit at its current total of 6.5. That’s a bet we’re willing to make.

The Play: Over 6.5 (-115)

Money Line Trends 💰

• New York Rangers- 12-7-1 overall this season, 7-3-0 as the away team

• Buffalo Sabres- 11-9-1 overall this season, 6-5-0 as the home team

• Washington Capitals- 14-6-1 overall this season, 7-2-0 as the away team

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Columbus Blue Jackets- Over is 13-6-1 this season with average total of 7.20

• Chicago Blackhawks- Under is 13-5-3 this season with average total of 5.38

Puck Line Trends ➕➖

• Washington Capitals- Puck line is 15-6 this season

• San Jose Sharks- Puck line is 17-7 this season

🔄 Flyers’ Ristolainen drawing lots of trade interest around the league. Philadelphia Flyers defenseman Rasmus Ristolainen is attracting significant interest from other NHL teams, though his performance has dipped, with just five points in 22 games this season and subpar underlying metrics. Meanwhile, the Flyers are reluctant to trade forward Scott Laughton unless offered a substantial return, such as a high draft pick, top prospect, or NHL player, as the team navigates a challenging season with a .477 points percentage. Ristolainen, under contract through 2026-27, has seen a decline in offensive output and ice time compared to his earlier career, though he continues to play a key role in Philadelphia’s top four.

😬 Timo Meier receives suspension for cross-check. New Jersey Devils forward Timo Meier was suspended for one game after cross-checking Nashville Predators winger Zachary L'Heureux during the Devils' 5-2 victory on Monday, leaving L'Heureux bloodied and unable to finish the game. Devils coach Sheldon Keefe acknowledged Meier's competitive intent but emphasized the need for better emotional control, especially in critical game moments. This marks Meier's first suspension in his NHL career, though he has been fined twice before; the Devils will play the St. Louis Blues on Wednesday without him.

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Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- Two University of Connecticut basketball players were selected in the top-three of the 2004 NBA Draft. One of those players was Emeka Okafor, but who was the other?

Question #2- Former NFL running back Danny Woodhead played for four different teams in his career: the New York Jets, New England Patriots, San Diego Chargers, and what other team?

Question #3- Alex Rodriguez and what other player were the only two MLB players to hit more than 50 home runs during the 2002 season?

Anyone know what has happened on November 27th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On November 27th…

1974- St. Louis Cardinals outfielder Bake McBride wins the National League Rookie of the Year award. The honor came following a solid first professional season from McBride, one in which the 25-year-old recorded 6 home runs, 56 RBIs, 81 runs scored, and 30 stolen bases. McBride went on to have a solid MLB career, being named an All-Star in 1976 and finishing in the top-10 in MVP voting in 1980.

1982- The 47th Iron Bowl is contested between the Auburn Tigers and Alabama Crimson Tide in Birmingham, Alabama. The Crimson Tide led 22-14 at the end of the third quarter, but the Tigers went on to score nine points in the final 15 minutes to win the game 23-22. Auburn freshman Bo Jackson scored the game-winning touchdown with just under three minutes remaining in regulation, giving Auburn its first win in the series in 10 years.

1997- Detroit Lions running back Barry Sanders rushes for 167 yards in three touchdowns in a win over the Chicago Bears. The performance helped Detroit take down their division rival by a final score of 55-20, and Sanders’ strong game on the ground moved him into second place on the NFL’s all-time rushing yards list. Sanders would end his career with 15,269 rushing yards, which currently ranks fourth in NFL history.

1. Ben Gordon

2. Baltimore Ravens

3. Jim Thome