In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter presented by Above the Mantel…

Additional Model Predictions & Bonuses ⬇️

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There were plenty of model predictions to go around yesterday across the MLB, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions in our Featured Matchup. That prediction went 0-1 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 4-3

Over/Under Predictions: 3-4

Run Line Predictions: 4-3

Featured Matchup: 0-1

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15 MLB games are scheduled to take place today. Our model’s predictions for all 15 matchups can be found below.

Oakland Athletics @ Boston Red Sox

Model Predicts- Red Sox ML, OVER 10, Athletics +1.5

The Oakland Athletics will begin a six-game road trip on Tuesday night, with the first stop coming in Boston, Massachusetts to take on the Red Sox at Fenway Park.

Oakland enters its road trip on a bit of a hot streak, picking up wins in four of its last six games. However, the Athletics still own a rather poor 34-58 record, while the Red Sox sit at 49-40 after stealing two of three games on the road against the Yankees this past weekend.

Sportsbooks make the Red Sox a rather sizable favorite in this one, but our model projects this game to be much closer. Let’s dive into why that is.

Oakland Athletics

• Have won four of six games in July

  • Three wins over Angels, one win over Orioles

  • +19 run differential in that span- highlighted by 19-8 win over Orioles on July 6th

• Offense is amongst best in MLB this month

  • Rank 3rd in wRC+ (139), 16th in BABIP (.281), and 4th in OPS (.831) since July 1st

  • 12 home runs and 41 runs scored both rank in top-five

• Starting pitcher- Joey Estes

  • Due for some positive regression- 4.39 ERA vs 4.14 xERA

  • Ranks in bottom 1% of MLB in Ground Ball Rate (21.0%), bottom 19% in Hard Hit rate (43.1%)

Boston Red Sox

• Have won five of six games in July

  • Three wins over Marlins, two wins over Yankees

  • +6 run differential in that span

• Offense has struggled despite the winning stretch

  • Rank 18th in wRC+ (94), 5th in BABIP (.315), and 16th in OPS (.714) since July 1st

  • Striking out in bunches- 29.6% Strikeout rate in July ranks in bottom-three of MLB

• Starting pitcher- Brayan Bello

  • Due for positive regression- 5.19 ERA vs 4.20 xERA

  • Elite ground ball pitcher- ranks in top 9% of MLB in Ground Ball rate (54.2%)

What’s the Play?

Both Oakland and Boston have been difficult to keep out of the win column this month, but we agree with our model that the Athletics are in a position to at least keep this game close.

Brayan Bello is due to see positive regression, and his ability to keep balls on the ground is a big reason why. However, Bello has struggled in other areas this season, as evidenced by his walk rate (8.7%) rising 2.0% from a season ago (6.7%), and ranking in the bottom half of the MLB in Whiff rate, Strikeout rate, and xBA. Those flaws have enabled opponents to put up four runs or more on Bello in four of his last six outings, putting a hot Oakland offense in a position to do some damage.

Meanwhile, Estes is also due for positive regression and is also starting to find a rhythm, allowing just four earned runs across the last 20.2 innings, including a complete-game shutout in his last outing.

Both pitchers are due to see improvements, but Oakland’s offense has been far better as of late. That provides us with enough confidence to back the A’s on the run line.

The Play: Athletics +1.5 (-125)

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Money Line Trends 💰

• Cleveland Guardians- 56-33 overall this season, 26-22 as the away team

• Philadelphia Phillies- 58-32 overall this season, 33-14 as the home team

• Milwaukee Brewers- 53-38 overall this season, 27-13 as the home team

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Houston Astros- Under is 51-35-4 this season, 23-17-3 as the home team

• Arizona Diamondbacks- Over is 47-411-3 this season, 24-19-1 as the home team

Run Line Trends ➕➖

• Philadelphia Phillies- Run line is 48-42 this season, 23-19 as a home favorite

💪 Rendon back in Angels lineup after lengthy absence. Anthony Rendon has been activated from the 10-day injured list, and led off for the Los Angeles Angels against the Texas Rangers on Monday night. He missed 69 games due to a strained left hamstring and spent last week facing live pitching at Angel Stadium while the Angels were on a road trip. Rendon will alternate between third base and designated hitter until he can comfortably play consecutive days and aims to help the struggling Angels improve in the second half of the season.

🔄 Giants trade Austin Slater to Reds. The Cincinnati Reds have traded left-hander Alex Young to the San Francisco Giants in exchange for veteran outfielder Austin Slater. Slater, who has spent his entire eight-year career with the Giants, has a .735 OPS with 39 home runs and 162 RBIs in 593 games but has struggled in 2024 with a .200/.330/.244 slash line. Young, who hasn't allowed a run in three appearances for the Reds this season, has a career record of 16-18 with a 4.40 ERA over 163 appearances.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- Nine quarterbacks in NFL history have thrown for at least 5,000 yards in a season, making it one of the rarest accomplishments. Drew Brees is one of the eight guys on the list, and he has surpassed the 5,000 yard mark more than any other quarterback. How many times did Drew Brees throw for 5,000 yards in a season?

Question #2- Manute Bol and Gheorghe Muresan share the title of “tallest player in NBA history”, both standing at 7-feet-7-inches. On the opposite end of the spectrum is a player who was just 5-foot-3-inches tall. Who was that player?

Question #3- St. Louis Cardinals legend Rogers Hornsby owns a .358 career batting average, the second-best average all-time. Who is the lone player above Hornsby on the list?

Anyone know what has happened on July 9th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On July 9th…

1933- The Frankford Yellow Jackets, a Philadelphia-based NFL team, is sold to Bert Bell and Lud Wray. The Yellow Jackets were part of the NFL from 1924-1931, but the organization’s origins date back to 1899 with the Frankford Athletic Association. The team won the NFL Championship in 1926, but would completely collapse during the 1931 season, a year in which the Yellow Jackets were shut out in all but one game. As a result, the Yellow Jackets would suspend operations, and the assets of the franchise were purchased by Bell and Wray, who then created the Philadelphia Eagles.

1968- Wilt Chamberlain becomes the first reigning NBA MVP to be traded the next season, going from the Philadelphia 76ers to the Los Angeles Lakers. Chamberlain averaged 24.3 points and 23.8 rebounds per game during his MVP campaign, but things began to fall apart following a 4-3 series loss to the Celtics in the postseason, a series in which Philadelphia was up 3-1. The turmoil between Chamberlain, who threatened to leave the NBA for the ABA, and 76ers ownership ultimately boiled over, which sent Chamberlain to the West Coast to join Jerry West and the Los Angeles Lakers.

2009- Hockey legend Joe Sakic retires after playing 21 seasons in the NHL. Sakic was selected 15th overall in the 1987 NHL Draft by the Quebec Nordiques, the team that would later become known as the Colorado Avalanche. Sakic would set several franchise records during his 21-year career, which include being the Avalanche franchsie leader in goals, assists, points, and games played. He would end his playing career with two Stanley Cups and 1,641 career points, putting him ninth on the NHL’s all-time list.

1. 5

2. Tyrone “Muggsy” Bogues

3. Ty Cobb