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In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

Additional Model Predictions & Bonuses ⬇️

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There were plenty of model predictions to go around yesterday across the MLB, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions in our Featured Matchup. That prediction went 1-0 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 7-8

Over/Under Predictions: 7-8

Run Line Predictions: 8-7

Featured Matchup: 1-0

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Five MLB games are scheduled to take place today. Our model’s predictions for all five matchups can be found below.

Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers

Model Predicts- Royals ML, OVER 8.5, Tigers +1.5

The Kansas City Royals will continue their seven-game road trip on Thursday, with the next stop coming in Detroit, Michigan to battle the Tigers in a four-game series.

Kansas City enters this series fresh off a sweep of the White Sox, a much needed set of wins after losing four of its last five games prior to that series beginning. Meanwhile, Detroit is coming off a series loss to the Cleveland Guardians, one in which the Tigers lost both games.

The Royals and Tigers are trending in opposite directions at the moment, and our model expects that to continue today in a high-scoring game. Let’s take a look at why that is.

Kansas City Royals

• Enter series off sweep of White Sox

  • Outscored Chicago 8-5 in Game 1, 4-3 in Game 2, and 10-3 in Game 3

  • Now own 60-49 season record- 3rd in AL Central

• Offense has been amongst best in MLB since All-Star break

  • Rank 8th in wRC+ (120), 3rd in BABIP (.319), and 6th in OPS (.800)

  • Got even better over last three games- 151 wRC+, .305 BABIP, and .911 OPS

• Starting pitcher- Seth Lugo

  • Due for regression- 2.66 ERA vs 3.95 xERA

  • Ranks in bottom 35% in Hard Hit rate and Whiff rate this season

Detroit Tigers

• In midst of large slump

  • Enter today on three-game losing streak- two losses to Guardians, one loss to Twins

  • Now just 2-6 in last eight games with -14 run differential

• Bullpen hasn’t been reliable option late in games recently

  • Own 4.37 ERA and 4.99 FIP across last eight games

  • Surrendering lots of contact- 21.1% strikeout rate ranks 18th in MLB in that span

• Starting pitcher- Keider Montero

  • Due for positive regression, but still expected to be bad- 6.38 ERA vs 5.35 xERA

  • Struggles with barrel and fly balls- 8.7% Barrel rate, 36.5% Ground Ball rate

What’s the Play?

Not much is happening today in the world of professional baseball, but we agree with our model that the over in tonight’s Royals/Tigers matchup is one of the best plays on the board.

The battle on the mound is one that favors both teams tonight. Lugo and his 12-4 record and 2.66 ERA are intimidating on the surface, but underlying metrics show that he has over-performed this season and is due to fall back to Earth in the near future. Montero is due to see some improvement, but his 5.35 xERA shows he is still expected to run in to some trouble, and his vulnerability to the barrel and fly balls could lead to disaster against a Royals team that has hit six home runs over the last three games.

Additionally, we’ve already discussed Detroit’s bullpen, but Kansas City’s is arguably worse. The group has posted a 4.83 ERA (23rd), 4.74 FIP, and 19.6% strikeout rate in 12 games since the All-Star break, which gives a struggling Tigers offense a chance to pile on runs late.

Both teams should be able to capitalize against weak pitching staffs today. As a result, we’ll back the over here.

The Play: Over 8.5 (-110)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Kansas City Royals- 60-49 overall this season, 3-0in last three games

• Cleveland Guardians- 65-42 overall this season, 33-15 as the home team

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Detroit Tigers- Over is 59-46-4 this season, 28-23-2 as the home team

• Atlanta Braves- Under is 62-40-5 this season, 32-18-1 as the home team

Run Line Trends ➕➖

• Cleveland Guardians- Run line is 54-53 overall this season

🧹 Yankees bring out the brooms in Philly. DJ LeMahieu led the Yankees with a career-high six RBIs, including a grand slam, as they completed a three-game sweep of the Phillies with a 6-5 victory on Wednesday. Nestor Cortes secured his first road win of the season, and the Yankees extended their winning streak to five games. The Phillies, struggling with recent losses, saw their NL East lead diminish, despite a strong performance from Nick Castellanos and a home run by Weston Wilson.

💪 Jackson Holliday hits grand slam in return to majors. Jackson Holliday made a strong return to the majors, hitting his first career home run with a grand slam to lead the Baltimore Orioles to a 10-4 win over the Toronto Blue Jays. Holliday, the top prospect from the 2022 draft, had struggled earlier in the season but delivered a 439-foot blast that put Baltimore ahead 8-3. Colton Cowser also homered for the Orioles, while Grayson Rodriguez pitched six innings, allowing three earned runs and striking out eight.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig deep into your NBA memory bank. We want you to guess who the top-five players on the NBA’s all-time three-pointers made list are, and we’ve provided you the logo of the team that the player played for the longest in their career.

As always, answers are at the end of the newsletter.

Anyone know what has happened on August 1st throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On August 1st…

1945- New York Giants outfielder Mel Ott hits his 500th career home run in a 9-2 victory over the Boston Braves. Ott’s homer, a solo shot, came against Braves pitcher Johnny Hutchings in the bottom of the third inning, making Ott the third player in MLB history to reach the 500 home run milestone. He would join Babe Ruth and Jimmy Foxx on the list, and currently sits in 25th on the MLB’s all-time home runs list.

1993- MLB legend Reggie Jackson, A.K.A “Mr. October”, is inducted into the Baseball Hall of Fame. Jackson enjoyed a lengthy 21-year MLB career, suiting up for the Kansas City/Oakland Athletics, Baltimore Orioles, New York Yankees and California Angels. In that time he would record 563 home runs, 1,702 RBIs, 14 All-Star game selections, and five World Series championships, making his induction into the Hall of Fame a no brainer.

1994- Baltimore Orioles shortstop and third baseman Cal Ripken Jr. plays in his 2,000th consecutive game in a 1-0 win over the Minnesota Twins. Ripken joined Lou Gehrig as the only players in MLB history to play in 2,000 consecutive games, and to this day are the only two players on the list. Ripken Jr., who played his entire 21-year career with Baltimore, sits at the top of the list with 2,632 consecutive games played, while Gehrig made an appearance in 2,130 consecutive games.

1. Stephen Curry

2. Ray Allen

3. James Harden

4. Damian Lillard

5. Reggie Miller