In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

Additional Model Predictions & Bonuses⬇️

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There were plenty of model predictions to go around yesterday across the NFL, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions in our Featured Matchup. That prediction went 0-1 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 1-0

Over/Under Predictions: 0-1

Spread Predictions: 1-0

Featured Matchup: 0-1

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15 MLB games are scheduled to take place today. Our model’s predictions for all 15 matchups can be found below.

New York Mets @ Toronto Blue Jays

Model Predicts- Mets ML, OVER 8, Blue Jays +1.5

The New York Mets and Toronto Blue Jays will continue their three-game series on Tuesday, with the first pitch for Game 2 scheduled to take place at 7:07 PM Eastern.

New York got the best of Toronto in Game 1 on Monday, as the Mets picked up a narrow 2-1 win on the road. That win brings the Mets’ record to 79-65 for the season and puts the team in the final wild card spot in the National League, while Toronto is well out of playoff contention with a 68-77 record.

The Mets have been one of the hottest teams in baseball recently, and our model projects New York to stay hot tonight in a high-scoring game. Let’s take a look at why that is.

New York Mets

• Picked up win in Game 1 of series with Toronto

  • Won 3-2 despite recording just three hits

  • Down 2-1 entering eighth inning, but scored two runs to take the lead

• Enter today having won 10 of last 11 games, but offensive numbers in that time aren’t outstanding

  • Rank 15th in wRC+ (98), 18th in BABIP (.289), and 17th in OPS (.690) in last 11 games

  • Have scored 48 total runs and posted +27 run differential in that time

• Starting pitcher- David Peterson

  • Due for regression- 2.75 ERA vs 4.87 xERA

  • .269 xBA (expected batting avg.) ranks in bottom 14% of MLB

Toronto Blue Jays

• Have won just one game in September thus far

  • One win came vs Atlanta on September 7th

  • Losses to Twins (1), Phillies (2), Braves (2), and Mets (1). Own -4 run differential this month

• Offensive metrics are right in line with Mets’ this month

  • Own 95 wRC+, .299 BABIP, and .687 OPS since September 1st

  • However, 29 runs scored ranks 2nd in MLB and is six less than New York in September

• Starting pitcher- Chris Bassitt

  • Pitching to expectations- 4.30 ERA vs 4.40 xERA

What’s the Play?

Our model is projecting roughly nine runs to be scored in tonight’s ball game, which is more than a full run higher than the total of 8 found on most sportsbooks. As a result, we’ll back the over here.

David Peterson has been due for regression for quite some time, and his pitching style often puts opposing teams in a position to pile on runs. Per Baseball Savant, Peterson is surrendering tons of contact this season and has poor command, posting a 19.5% Strikeout rate and 9.6% Walk rate. He also owns a 42.0% Hard Hit rate, showing that the contact made by opposing hitters is oftentimes not beneficial to him or the Mets.

Chris Bassitt isn’t due to see nearly as much regression, but his struggles on the mound this season have led to opposing teams scoring at least three earned runs against him in nine of his last 11 starts.

Neither offense has put up huge numbers as of late, but poor underlying metrics for both starting pitchers put the Mets and Blue Jays in a position to score often tonight.

The Play: Over 8 (-110)

Money Line Trends 💰

• New York Mets- 79-65 overall this season, 39-31 as the away team, and 9-1 in last ten games

• San Diego Padres- 81-64 overall this season, 41-29 as the away team

• Milwaukee Brewers- 82-61 overall this season, 40-32 as the away team

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• New York Mets- Over is 34-31-4 as the away team this season

• Toronto Blue Jays- Over is 75-67-3 this season, 40-29-1 as the home team

Run Line Trends ➕➖

• Oakland Athletics- Run line is 78-66 this season, 38-31 as a road underdog

📉 Twins fall to Angels for sixth loss in last seven games. Reid Detmers pitched six strong innings, while Brandon Drury and Niko Kavadas each hit two-run homers to help the Los Angeles Angels secure a 6-2 win over the struggling Minnesota Twins. Detmers, making his second quality start since returning from Triple-A, allowed five hits and struck out eight for his first win since April. The Twins continued their slump, losing their fourth straight game and struggling at the plate, with Kyle Farmer's solo homer being one of their few bright spots.

👀 Kumar Rocker to make MLB debut on Thursday vs Mariners. The Texas Rangers are calling up right-handed pitching prospect Kumar Rocker, who will make his MLB debut Thursday against the Seattle Mariners. Rocker, 24, is ranked as the No. 97 prospect in baseball and has posted a 1.96 ERA across 36 2/3 innings in the minors this year after returning from Tommy John surgery. Drafted 10th overall by the Mets in 2021 but unsigned, he was later picked third overall by the Rangers in 2022 following a stint in the independent Frontier League.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- Which current football analyst at Fox was a three-year starting quarterback at Colorado from 2003-2005?

Question #2- Cooper Kupp is the only receiver in NFL history to ever have a 2,000 yard season. What college did Kupp attend?

Question #3- The University of Idaho has only had one first-round NFL draft pick since 1986. Can you name that player?

Anyone know what has happened on September 10th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On September 10th…

1989- Indianapolis Colts running back Eric Dickerson rushed for 106 yards against the San Francisco 49ers, his 91st career game. The performance gave Dickerson 10,000 yards for his career, making him the youngest person in NFL history to reach the milestone. Dickerson would end his career with 13,259 rush yards, the ninth most in NFL history.

1990- The New York Yankees lose to the Oakland Athletics for the 12th time, marking the first time in franchise history that the Yanks were swept in a season series. Oakland had dominated the Yankees several years prior and after 1990 as well, either beating them or tying the season series from 1985-1993. Losing was normal for the Yanks in 1990 though, a season in which they went 67-95.

1997- MLB slugger Mark McGwire becomes the second player in MLB history to hit at least 50 home runs in consecutive seasons. McGwire joined Babe Ruth on the list, and him and Sammy Sosa would later become the only players to surpass 50 homers in four straight seasons. McGwire ended his career with 583 home runs, ranking him 11th all-time.

1. Joel Klatt

2. Eastern Washington

3. Mike Iupati