In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

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There were plenty of model predictions to go around yesterday across the MLB, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions in our Featured Matchup. That prediction went 1-0 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 8-7

Over/Under Predictions: 11-2-2

Run Line Predictions: 10-5

Featured Matchup: 1-0

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10 MLB games are scheduled to take place today. Our model’s predictions for all 10 matchups can be found below.

Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox

Model Predicts- Red Sox ML, OVER 9, Red Sox -1.5

The Toronto Blue Jays and Boston Red Sox will square off in a suspended double-header today, with Game 2 set to begin at 7:10 PM Eastern.

Toronto enters their tilt with Boston on a hot streak, winning each of the last four games. That stretch brings the Blue Jays closer to the .500 mark at 63-68, while Boston sits at 67-62 after losing three consecutive games.

Game 1 of this double-header will begin in the second inning, as the game was originally suspended due to weather back in June. However, the model predictions for tonight’s matchup are for Game 2, a matchup our model projects the Red Sox to win in a high-scoring affair. Let’s dive into why that is.

Toronto Blue Jays

• Enter today on four-game win streak

  • All four wins came against Angels

  • Posted +11 run differential in that four-game span

• Offense has been main catalyst for recent success

  • Own 129 wRC+, .287 BABIP, and .818 OPS across the last four games

  • Power is on full display- six homers in the last four games (4th in MLB). Has led to 21 runs scored (6th in MLB)

• Starting pitcher- José Berríos

  • Due for regression- 3.79 ERA vs 4.97 xERA

  • Ranks in bottom 22% of MLB in Strikeout rate (19.1%) and Hard Hit rate (42.2%)

Boston Red Sox

• Lost weekend series to Diamondbacks

  • Outscored 12-2 in Game 1, 4-1 in Game 2, and 7-5 in Game 3

  • Have now lost five of last seven games

• Offense is hot in August, but recent pitching staff struggles are a concern

  • Offense- 111 wRC+ (11th), .326 BABIP (2nd), and .775 OPS (5th) since August 1st

  • Pitching- 7.67 ERA (28th), 5.65 xFIP (29th), 5.67 Strikeouts/9 innings (28th) over last three games

• Starting pitcher- Nick Pivetta

  • Due for positive regression- 4.70 ERA vs 3.94 xERA

What’s the Play?

Toronto and Boston have been in a groove offensively in August, and we agree with our model that both are in position to keep that momentum going today. As a result, we’ll be backing the over here.

Berríos has had tons of luck on the mound as of late, and Boston presents him with a tough matchup despite some struggles over the weekend. The right-hander’s xERA is nearly 1.20 runs higher than his real ERA, showing that more runs are on the horizon, and his vulnerability to the long ball always positions opponents for a strong offensive outing, as his 27 home runs are the second-most allowed by a pitcher in the MLB this season.

On the other hand, Pivetta is due to see less runs come his way, but there are still tons of concerns for him. Per Baseball Savant, he ranks in the bottom 4% of the MLB in Barrel rate (11.4%) and Ground Ball rate (30.0%), which has played a significant role in him surrendering at least three earned runs in four his last five starts and 10 home runs in that same five-game span.

Both pitchers give up homers at an alarming rate, and both offenses have lit up opposing pitchers this month, which should lead to plenty of runs from both sides.

The Play: Over 9 (-110)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Minnesota Twins- 72-58 overall this season, 37-26 as the home team

• Philadelphia Phillies- 76-54 overall this season, 42-23 as the home team

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Toronto Blue Jays- Over is 71-57-3 this season, 28-13 against division opponents (Play AL East rival Boston today)

• Boston Red Sox- Over is 68-53-8 this season, 31-28-5 as the home team

Run Line Trends ➕➖

• Washington Nationals- Run line is 73-58 this season, 25-21 as a home underdog

💥 Judge reaches 50 home run mark for third time in career. New York Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge became the fifth player in MLB history to achieve three seasons with at least 50 home runs after hitting a two-run homer against the Colorado Rockies. Judge, who has seven home runs in his last six games, tied a major-league record for the most first-inning homers in a season with his 18th, matching Alex Rodriguez's 2001 mark. The 32-year-old is on track to hit a career-high 63 home runs after adding another in the seventh inning, and he took a curtain call for fans following his two-homer game.

😬 White Sox become fastest team to lose 100 games. The Detroit Tigers defeated the Chicago White Sox 9-4 on Sunday, marking the White Sox's 100th loss of the season, the fastest any team has reached this milestone since the 1916 Philadelphia Athletics. The White Sox are on pace to lose 124 games, which would break the modern-era record for most losses in a season, held by the 1962 New York Mets. Despite leading early, the White Sox couldn't hold off the Tigers, who scored three runs in the fifth inning and added two more in both the seventh and eighth to secure the win.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- Shaun Alexander was a star for the Seattle Seahawks, but the running back played for one additional team during his career after his tenure in Seattle. Can you name that team?

Question #2- The Indiana Pacers and Detroit Pistons got into an infamous scuffle in 2004, one that NBA fans would remember forever. What name was the brawl given?

Question #3- The Philadelphia Phillies made the World Series in 2023, the team’s first time since 2009. Who did Philadelphia play, and lose to, in the 2009 Fall Classic?

Anyone know what has happened on August 26th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On August 26th…

1985- Baltimore Orioles legend Eddie Murray records nine RBIs in a 17-3 blowout victory over the Angels. Murray finished the game 4-for-5 at the plate, hitting three homers, one of which was a grand slam, and came up just a few feet short of his fourth with a warning track fly out in the seventh inning. Although the performance was legendary, it was nothing new for Murray, as it was the third time in his career that he hit three homers in the same game.

1989- NBA star James Harden is born in Los Angeles, California. Harden began his career with the Oklahoma City Thunder before being traded to the Houston Rockets, where he would go on to win one MVP and be an All-Star from 2013-2019. Harden has also played for the Philadelphia 76ers, and is currently a member of the Los Angeles Clippers.

1990- Bo Jackson hits his fourth consecutive home run against the Seattle Mariners. How Jackson got there was a little unorthodox, as the first three homers came back on July 17th against the Yankees, but he was forced to leave the game with an injury following his third dinger. He wouldn’t return to the field until August 26th, going yard in his first at-bat and becoming the 19th player in MLB history to hit four consecutive home runs.

1. Washington Redskins

2. Malice at the Palace

3. New York Yankees