Will Philadelphia Save Its Season?

In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

Additional Model Predictions ⬇️ 

NHL Model Predictions- End of Newsletter

NCAAF Model Predictions- End of Newsletter

There were plenty of model predictions to go around yesterday across the MLB, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions in our Featured Matchup. That prediction went 1-0 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 2-0

Over/Under Predictions: 2-0

Run Line Predictions: 2-0

Featured Matchup: 1-0

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Four MLB games are scheduled to take place today. Our model’s predictions for all four of those matchups can be found below.

Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets

Model Predicts- Phillies ML, OVER 7.5, Mets +1.5

The Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets will continue their best-of-five series on Wednesday, with the first pitch of Game 4 scheduled to take place just after 5 PM Eastern.

New York has gotten the better of Philadelphia through three games, picking up dominant wins in Games 1 and 3 to take a 2-1 series lead. New York is now 4-2 overall in the postseason and is one win away from punching its ticket to the NLCS, something many figured was improbable just a few months ago.

Philadelphia has its back against the wall, but our model expects the Phillies to even the series tonight. Let’s dive into why that is.

Philadelphia Phillies

• Disastrous Game 3 led to 2-1 series deficit

  • Lost Game 7-2. Recorded just five hits in the game

  • Only two runs of game came in the eighth inning

• Have not been able to hit Mets’ starters this series, but are jumping all over bullpen

  • Mets starters- 3.00 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, .212 BABIP, and 3.75 xFIP. Have surrendered four runs

  • Mets relievers- 4.79 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, .259 BABIP, and 4.51 xFIP. Have surrendered seven runs

• Starting pitcher- Ranger Suárez

  • Pitching to expectations- 3.46 ERA vs 3.59 xERA

  • Great at avoiding fly balls and barrel- ranks in top 12% in Ground Ball rate (53.2%) and Barrel rate (5.1%)

New York Mets

• Lost Game 2 of series, but won Games 1 and 3

  • Loss was by just one run. Outscoring Phillies 13-4 in two wins

  • Have recorded 28 hits and 19 runs across three games, compared to 20 hits and 11 runs for Philly

• Steady offense has been key to postseason success

  • Own 97 wRC+, .289 BABIP, and .693 OPS in postseason

  • 34 runs scored is most of any playoff team. Seven home runs ranks second

• Starting pitcher- Jose Quintana

  • Due for regression- 3.75 ERA vs 4.49 xERA

  • Surrendering lots of contact- ranks in bottom 19% of MLB in Whiff rate and Strikeout rate

What’s the Play?

It’s possible that the first-round bye curse claims another victim tonight, but we agree with our model that Philadelphia is in position to win tonight’s game.

Ranger Suárez was due to see regression for most of the regular season after his historic start, but luckily for the Phillies the 0.13-run gap between his real ERA and xERA shows that regression is over. The left-hander has an elite ability to keep balls off the barrel and on the ground, and his 34.3% Hard Hit rate ranks him in the top 17% of the majors this season, all of which are factors needed to shut down a hot Mets offense.

Meanwhile, the underlying metrics show Quintana is due for regression. The 0.74-run gap between his real ERA and xERA is a concern, and although the Phillies’ bats have been cold, Quintana’s high rates of contact combined with his pending regression means runs are likely on the horizon for the Philadelphia offense.

Neither one of these pitchers can rely on their bullpen, as both groups of relievers have been exposed in this series. However, Suárez and the Phillies are in a better spot to begin this game, and we think that will be enough for them to win.

The Play: Phillies ML (-120)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Philadelphia Phillies- 1-2 overall in postseason, 41-40 as the away team in regular season

• New York Yankees- 1-1 overall in postseason, 50-31 as the away team in regular season

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Philadelphia Phillies- Over is 3-0 in postseason with average total of 10.0

• New York Mets- Over is 5-1 in postseason with average total of 9.33

Run Line Trends ➕➖

• Kansas City Royals- Run line is 4-0 in postseason, 51-34 as an underdog in regular season

💪 Manaea’s strong outing puts Mets on doorstep on NLCS. The New York Mets are one win away from reaching the NLCS after defeating the Philadelphia Phillies 7-2 in Game 3 of the NLDS. Mets pitcher Sean Manaea dominated, allowing only one run over seven-plus innings, while Pete Alonso's home run and Starling Marte's two-run single helped break the game open. The Mets will try to clinch the series in Game 4, with Jose Quintana facing Phillies' Ranger Suárez.

💥 Padres take down Dodgers thanks to early offensive explosion. The San Diego Padres defeated the Los Angeles Dodgers 6-5 in Game 3 of the NLDS, taking a 2-1 lead in the series. A six-run second inning, highlighted by a David Peralta double and Fernando Tatis Jr.'s two-run homer, gave the Padres a decisive edge. Despite a grand slam from Teoscar Hernández in the third, San Diego's pitching held the Dodgers to just one hit for the rest of the game, securing the win.

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Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- Stanford University is widely known for its academics, but it has also produced 24 NFL QBs. Who was the most recent Stanford quarterback to be selected in the NFL Draft?

Question #2- What NBA team has won the most NBA titles since the 1999-2000 season, winning six in that time?

Question #3- Which MLB team has the most wins in league history?

Anyone know what has happened on October 9th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On October 9th…

1974- The Washington Capitals play their first NHL game. Washington came up short in its debut, falling to the New York Rangers at Madison Square Garden by a score of 6-3. To make matters worse, the loss marked the start of a 37-game road losing streak for the Capitals, two losses short of the NHL record.

1989- Los Angeles Raiders coach Art Shell becomes the first African American to coach an NFL game. Shell would lead the Raiders to a 14-7 victory over the New York Jets, a game highlighted by Eddie Anderson’s 87-yard Pick-6 to give L.A. the lead in the 4th quarter. He recorded a 54-38 record with the Raiders, but was fired after a 9-7 season in 1994.

1997- Legendary North Carolina basketball head coach Dean Smith retires from coaching. Smith began his coaching career in 1953 at Kansas, eventually making his way to Chapel Hill in 1958 and becoming the head coach of the Tar Heels in 1961. He would lead UNC for 36 seasons, winning two National titles and posting an 879-254 record.

1. Tanner McKee

2. Los Angeles Lakers

3. San Francisco Giants

NHL Model Predictions🏒

NCAAF Model Predictions🏈