In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

Additional Model Predictions & Bonuses ⬇️

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There were plenty of model predictions to go around yesterday across the MLB, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions in our Featured Matchup. That prediction went 1-0 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 5-4

Over/Under Predictions: 6-3

Run Line Predictions: 7-2

Featured Matchup: 1-0

14 MLB games are scheduled to take place today. Our model’s predictions for all 14 matchups can be found below.

Boston Red Sox @ Cincinnati Reds

Model Predicts- Red Sox ML, UNDER 9.5, Reds +1.5

The Boston Red Sox will continue their six-game road trip on Friday, with the next leg coming in Cincinnati, Ohio against the Reds.

Boston’s road trip has gotten off to a terrific start, sweeping an AL East rival, the Toronto Blue Jays, in a three-game series to begin the week. The sweep now has the Red Sox in the midst of a five-game win streak, while the Reds enter tonight’s matchup fresh off a 1-0 loss to the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Boston is one of the hottest teams in baseball right now, and our model expects the hot streak to continue tonight. Let’s dive into why that is.

Boston Red Sox

• Enter tonight on five-game winning streak

  • Two wins over Yankees, three wins over Blue Jays

  • Own +19 run differential in that span

• Potent offense has been catalyst for winning streak

  • Rank 4th in wRC+ (155), 2nd in BABIP (.382), and 4th in OPS (.919) since June 15th

  • Getting on base at high clip- .399 on base % in last five games (1st in MLB). Only 18.7% strikeout rate

• Starting pitcher- Kutter Crawford

  • Pitching to expectations- 3.54 ERA vs 3.79 xERA

  • Surrenders lots of fly balls (37.1% Ground Ball rate), but limits hard contact (34.6% Hard Hit rate)

Cincinnati Reds

• Fresh off series loss to Pirates

  • Outscored 4-1 in Game 1 and 1-0 in Game 3. Won 2-1 in Game 2

  • Have now lost four of last five games

• Offense has been worst in MLB over last five games

  • Rank 30th in wRC+ (54), 26th in BABIP (.241), and 30th in OPS (.557)

  • Held to just 1.60 runs per game in that stretch

• Starting pitcher- Andrew Abbott

  • Pitching to expectations- 3.42 ERA vs 3.31 xERA

  • Ranks in bottom 11% of MLB in Ground Ball rate and Whiff rate

What’s the Play?

Boston’s win streak will come to an end at some point, but we agree with our model that backing the Red Sox to win tonight’s game outright is one of the better bets on the board.

Abbott has been solid for the Reds this season, but some of his underlying metrics are concerning. Last season we saw the left-hander post a 26.1% strikeout rate, but that has since fallen to 18.3% this season, and the increase in contact from his opponents has oftentimes put many baseballs in the air rather than on the ground.

Additionally, Boston has been one of the best groups against lefties as of late, posting a 129 wRC+, .374 BABIP, and .824 OPS against those pitchers since June 1st. That puts the Sox in position to win today’s game.

The Play: Red Sox ML (-105)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Atlanta Braves- 41-31 overall this season, 3-0 in last three games

• Boston Red Sox- 40-35 overall this season, 5-0 in last five games, and 8-2 in last ten games

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Houston Astros- Under is 46-26-3 this season, 21-15-2 as the home team

• Milwaukee Brewers- Over is 39-31-5 this season, third-highest win percentage in MLB (55.7%)

Run Line Trends ➕➖

• Kansas City Royals- Run line is 43-33 this season, 28-17 as an underdog

💪 Orioles score 17 runs in rout of Yankees. Cedric Mullins hit a two-run homer, sparking a six-run second inning for the Baltimore Orioles in a 17-5 win over the New York Yankees. Gunnar Henderson reached base four times, extending his on-base streak to 27 games, and the Orioles set a major league record with 22 straight unbeaten series against AL East opponents. Despite home runs from Gleyber Torres and Aaron Judge, the Yankees' rookie pitcher Luis Gil was knocked out early, allowing seven runs in just 1 1/3 innings.

⚾️ Kershaw makes appearance on mound in rehab start. Clayton Kershaw took a significant step in his comeback from left shoulder surgery by throwing three innings in his first rehab start, allowing one run and two hits, striking out five, and walking one at Class-A Rancho Cucamonga. Kershaw, whose pitches clocked mostly at 88-90 mph, felt positive about his performance and expects to make a few more rehab starts before rejoining the Dodgers. The Dodgers' rotation has been struggling with injuries, including Yoshinobu Yamamoto's indefinite absence due to a strained rotator cuff and Walker Buehler being sidelined after a line drive injury.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- The MVP is an award given to the player deemed to be the Most Valuable Player on his/her team, and it is given out across every major men’s and women’s sport in the United States. Oftentimes there isn’t a consensus regarding who the winner should be, except for one time in the NBA when an unanimous MVP was named for the first time in league history. Who was the first unanimous MVP the NBA has ever had?

Question #2- The 1999 Jacksonville Jaguars were a dominant force in the NFL, posting a 15-3 record across the regular season and playoffs. Shockingly though, all three of Jacksonville’s losses that season came at the ends of the same team. Which NFL team handed the Jaguars all three of their losses in 1999?

Question #3- Five NHL players recorded at least 50 goals in the 2022-23 season. Scoring 50 goals is far more common in today’s game than it was back in the day, as evidenced by the first 50-goal scroer not coming until the 1944-45 season. Who was that player?

Anyone know what has happened on June 21st throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On June 21st…

1939- New York Yankees legend Lou Gehrig officially retires from Major League Baseball after 17 seasons. Gehrig’s retirement came after being diagnosed with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, or ALS. Gehrig would go on to live with ALS for the next few years, but ultimately passed away from the disease on June 2, 1941.

1965- Gary Player defeats Kel Nagle by three strokes to win the U.S. Open title, the only U.S. Open victory of his career. Player and Nagle were both tied at 2-over par after 72 holes, leading to an additional 18 holes to be played in a playoff where Player shot 1-over par compared to Nagle’s 4-over par round. The victory made Player the first foreign-born winner of the U.S. Open since 1927, and it simultaneously gave him his fourth major title and the career grand slam at the age of 29.

2022- Los Angeles Angels star Shohei Ohtani tallies career-high 8 RBIs in a 12-11 loss to the Kansas City Royals. Ohtani became the eighth player in Angels history to have an 8 RBI game, but it was the first time in MLB history that a player had at least 8 RBIs and never had his team lead the game. The two-way star would go down in history the following night as well, striking out 13 batters on his way to becoming the first player in MLB history to record at least 10 strikeouts following an 8 RBI game.

1. Stephen Curry

2. Tennessee Titans

3. Maurice Richard