In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

Additional Model Predictions & Bonuses ⬇️

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There were plenty of model predictions to go around yesterday across the MLB, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions in our Featured Matchup. That prediction went 0-1 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 11-4

Over/Under Predictions: 11-4

Run Line Predictions: 10-5

Featured Matchup: 0-1

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13 MLB games are scheduled to take place today. Our model’s predictions for all 13 matchups can be found below.

Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals

Model Predicts- Nationals ML, OVER 8.5, Angels +1.5

The Los Angeles Angels and Washington Nationals will wrap up their three-game series on Sunday, with the first pitch for Game 3 scheduled to take place at 11:35 AM Eastern.

Washington has had a slight advantage over Los Angeles thus far, taking home the win in each of the first two contests by one run. Those victories give the Nationals a 5-4 record in August, while the Angels sit at 4-5 since the start of the month.

Neither one of these teams is particularly fun to bet on, but our model spots a ton of value on the total in this morning’s matchup. Let’s take a look at why that is.

Los Angeles Angels

• Struggling to find a rhythm in August

  • Own 4-5 record. Two wins over Mets, two over Yankees

  • Own +3 run differential in nine-game stretch

• Offense is giving itself tons of chances to score, just hasn’t happened yet

  • Own .309 BABIP in August- 10th best in MLB

  • 20.9% strikeout rate and .326 on base % both rank in top-10 as well

• Starting pitcher- Jack Kochanowicz

  • Rough start to MLB career- 14.14 ERA vs 11.40 xERA

  • Has allowed 14 hits and 12 runs in only 7.0 innings this season

Washington Nationals

• Have yet to lose in series vs Angels

  • Outscored L.A. 3-2 in Game 1 and 5-4 in Game 2

  • Both games went to extra innings

• Offense hasn’t been elite this month, but is producing

  • Own 106 wRC+ (16th), .312 BABIP (8th), and .744 OPS (13th) since August 1st

  • Rank 11th in on base %, largely due to low strikeout rate (18.4%)

• Starting pitcher- MacKenzie Gore

  • Pitching to expectations- 4.66 ERA vs 4.50 xERA

  • Ranks in bottom 21% of MLB in xBA (.266) and Ground Ball rate (36.7%)

What’s the Play?

Our model shows value on backing the Nationals and the over in this matchup, but we are going to stick with just the over here.

The Angels are from being a dominant offense, but they are a group that can capitalize on MacKenzie Gore’s struggles. The last two months have been a disaster for Gore, posting an 8.96 ERA and 2.11 WHIP across his last seven starts. He’s only surrendered four home runs in that time, but the abundance of contact is a concern against an Angels squad that has been making contact in bunches this month.

However, Gore will likely have run support today thanks to his squad facing rookie pitcher Jack Kochanowicz, who has posted a 12.0% Barrel rate and 60.0% Hard Hit rate in his limited innings.

Both pitchers have been sized up often by their opponents, and each will face an offense that is consistently making contact at the plate over the last two weeks. That’s a recipe for a high-scoring game.

The Play: Over 8.5 (-120)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Baltimore Orioles- 70-48 overall this season, 36-23 as the away team, and 8-1 vs Tampa Bay this season

• Seattle Mariners- 62-56 overall this season, 36-26 as the home team, and 3-0 in last three games

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Washington Nationals- Over is 58-54-6 this season, 28-27-4 as the home team

• Baltimore Orioles- Over is 67-42-9 this season, 37-19-3 as the away team

Run Line Trends ➕➖

• Los Angeles Angels- Run line is 64-53 this season 31-25 as the away team

• Pittsburgh Pirates- Run line is 64-52 this season, 27-14 as a road underdog

💪 Orioles become first team to win 70 games. The Baltimore Orioles became the first team to reach 70 wins this season by defeating the Tampa Bay Rays 7-5, led by Ramón Urías' go-ahead home run in the eighth inning. The victory allowed Baltimore to maintain its lead in the AL East division, and gave the team an 8-1 record vs Tampa Bay this season. Despite their early 4-0 lead, the Orioles had to fight back after the Rays tied the game, ultimately securing the win with a strong late-inning performance.

🔥 Padres stay hot with 16th win in last 18 games. Luis Arraez's go-ahead RBI groundout in the 10th inning helped the San Diego Padres secure a 9-8 win over the Miami Marlins, extending their winning streak to seven games. The Padres have now won 16 of their last 18 games and clinched their eighth consecutive series victory. Despite a strong performance from Miami, the Padres' late-game resilience, highlighted by Robert Suarez's perfect ninth inning, sealed the victory.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- Kevin Durant and the United States Men’s Basketball Team won the gold medal at the 2024 Paris Olympics on Saturday. How many Olympic gold medals has Durant now won in his career?

Question #2- The Cleveland Browns drafted what defensive end out of Texas A&M with the No.1 overall pick in the 2017 NFL Draft?

Question #3- One active player ranks in the top-10 on the NHL’s all-time points list. Who is that player?

Anyone know what has happened on August 11th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On August 11th…

1993- Boston Red Sox pitcher Roger Clemens records his 2,000th career strikeout. Clemens reached the milestone in a 8-3 loss to the New York Yankees, a game in which he pitched six innings, surrendered five earned runs, and struck out five hitters. Clemens would end his career with 4,672 strikeouts, the third-most in MLB history.

2013- Jason Dufner wins the PGA Championship at Oak Hill Country Club in Pittsford, New York. Dufner shot 10-under par for the tournament, defeating runner-up Jim Furyk by two strokes. It was the first major tournament victory for Dufner, and the only major he would win in his career.

2016- American swimmer Michael Phelps wins the gold medal in the 200 meter individual medley at the Rio Olympics. Phelps completed the event in 1:54.66, taking down the rest of the field by nearly two seconds. The win made Phelps only the third athlete and first swimmer to win four consecutive Olympic gold medals in an event.

1. Four

2. Myles Garrett

3. Sidney Crosby