In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

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There were plenty of model predictions to go around yesterday across the MLB, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions in our Featured Matchup. That prediction went 0-1 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 7-8

Over/Under Predictions: 5-9-1

Run Line Predictions: 9-6

Featured Matchup: 0-1

15 MLB games are scheduled to take place today. Our model’s predictions for all 15 matchups can be found below.

St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs

Model Predicts- Cubs ML, UNDER 8.5, Cardinals +1.5

The St. Louis Cardinals and Chicago Cubs will wrap up their four-game series on Sunday night, with the first pitch of Game 4 scheduled to take place at 7:10 PM Eastern.

Chicago has remained in firm control of this series from the first pitch, winning each of the first two contests before losing Game 3 due to a major fielding error. However, the Cubs will need to continue those winning ways in order to have a chance at the postseason, as the club sits in fifth place in the NL Central while St. Louis sits in second.

The Cardinals found the win column for the first time this month yesterday, but our model expects the Cubs to win tonight in a low-scoring contest. Let’s take a look at why that is.

St. Louis Cardinals

• Enter today having won three of last five games

  • Two wins over Rangers, one win over Cubs

  • Own +13 run differential in that span

• Have been mediocre offensively since All-Star break despite recent success

  • Own 105 wRC+ (16th), .287 BABIP (19th), and 17th in OPS (.720)

  • 68 runs scored over last 15 games ranks 13th in MLB

• Starting pitcher- Miles Mikolas

  • Due for positive regression- 5.00 ERA vs 4.39 xERA

  • Surrendering tons of contact- ranks in bottom 8% of MLB in Strikeout rate (16.2%) and Whiff rate (16.3%)

Chicago Cubs

• Have won two of three games in series

  • Outscored Cardinals 5-4 in Game 1, 6-3 in Game 2, and lost 5-4 in Game 3

  • Have now won three of last four contests. +12 run differential in that stretch

• Like St. Louis, offense has struggled since All-Star break

  • Rank 26th in wRC+ (83), 23rd in BABIP (.266), and 28th in OPS (.651)

  • 57 runs scored and 13 home runs over last 15 games both rank in bottom seven of MLB

• Starting pitcher- Justin Steele

  • Due for slight positive regression- 3.38 ERA vs 3.08 xERA

What’s the Play?

Our model doesn’t see much value on picking a side in this matchup, but it has spotted some value on the under and that is a prediction we are confident in.

Justin Steele hasn’t looked great in his last few starts, allowing 12 earned runs across 15.0 innings, but several underlying metrics are in his favor. His xERA comes in 0.30 runs lower than his real ERA, and he still ranks in the top 30% of the MLB in xBA (.228), Walk rate (6.4%), Hard Hit rate (35.2%), and Barrel rate (4.2%).

Mikolas is in a similar position when it comes to positive regression on the mound. His high rate of contact is a concern, but it hasn’t affected the run total often over the last month, as he has surrendered three earned runs or less in four of his last five outings, and his xERA shows those trends can continue.

This series has seen nine runs scored in all three games, with two of those games hitting that total due to crucial fielding errors late in the game. We don’t expect to see a total that high tonight.

The Play: Under 8.5 (-105)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Houston Astros- 57-53 overall this season, 32-25 as the home team

• Boston Red Sox- 58-51 overall this season, 31-23 as the home team

• Chicago Cubs- 54-59 overall this season, 29-26 as the home team

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Detroit Tigers- Over is 61-47-4 this season, 30-24-2 as the home team

• Chicago Cubs- Under is 30-24-1 this season as the home team

Run Line Trends ➕➖

• Cincinnati Reds- Run line is 61-49 this season, 37-24 as an underdog

• Washington Nationals- Run line is 62-49 this season, 27-25 as the home team

💪 Shohei Ohtani joins 30-30 club. Shohei Ohtani achieved a milestone by joining the 30-homer, 30-steal club for the first time in his career during a game against the Oakland Athletics. This marks the fourth 30-30 season in Dodgers history and ties him for the third-fewest games needed to reach this mark in MLB history. Ohtani currently has 31 stolen bases and leads the National League with 33 home runs.

🔱 Mariners overcome five-run deficit to beat Phillies. Mitch Haniger drew a bases-loaded walk in the 10th inning to secure a 6-5 comeback win for the Seattle Mariners against the Philadelphia Phillies, overcoming a 5-0 deficit. This marked Philadelphia's sixth consecutive loss, their longest losing streak since early 2023. Haniger's walk-off walk, his seventh career walk-off with Seattle, tied him for the most in franchise history, and his solo home run in the fifth inning sparked Seattle's rally, with a four-run sixth inning off Jeff Hoffman tying the game.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- Jerry Rice was mostly known for his time as a San Francisco 49er, but the Hall of Fame receiver was a member of three additional franchises during his career. What was the last team that Rice played a game for in his career?

Question #2- Pittsburgh Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin has been one of the most consistent coaches since entering the league. How many consecutive winning seasons has Tomlin posted since assuming the lead role in Pittsburgh?

Question #3- Kickers are often placed in extremely high-pressure situations on the field, but one kicker has been able to combat that pressure more than anyone else. Which kicker owns the highest field goal percentage in NFL history?

Anyone know what has happened on August 4th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On August 4th…

1982- MLB player Joel Youngblood becomes the first player in league history to record a hit for two different teams in two different cities on the same day. Youngblood began the day as a centerfielder for the New York Mets in a game against the Chicago Cubs, driving in two runs on a single in the bottom of the third inning. He would be pulled from the game the following inning and was informed that he had been traded to the Montreal Expos, who requested he that suit up later that night in their matchup against the Phillies. So, Youngblood fulfilled the request, later recording a single off Hall of Fame pitcher Steve Carlton.

1984- American sprinter and long jumper Carl Lewis wins the 100 meter dash at the Olympic Games in Los Angeles, California. The victory was the first Olympic gold medal of Lewis’ career, one that would see the star sprinter win nine Olympic golds from 1984-1996. Lewis won four gold medals at the 1984 Olympics alone, taking the victory in the 200 meter dash, long jump, and 4 × 100 meter relay in addition to the 100 meter dash.

2007- Alex Rodriguez becomes the youngest player in MLB history to reach the 500 home run milestone in a 16-8 win over the Kansas City Royals. Rodriguez reached the milestone at just 32 years old as a member of the New York Yankees, hitting the home run on the first pitch that he saw in the game. He would end his career with 696 home runs, which places him fifth on the MLB’s all-time list.

1. Seattle Seahawks

2. 17

3. Justin Tucker