In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

There were plenty of predictions to go around yesterday across the NFL and NHL, with our model focusing in on two of those predictions in our Featured Matchups. Those predictions went 1-1 overall, and you can see how each of the models performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 9-2

Over/Under Predictions: 6-5

Spread Predictions: 8-3

Featured Matchup: 1-0

Money Line Predictions: 4-1

Over/Under Predictions: 0-5

Puck Line Predictions: 2-3

Featured Matchup: 0-1

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• NBA/NHL Model Track and Power Rankings (Posted throughout today and tomorrow)

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One NFL game is scheduled to take place today, with that matchup featuring the Cincinnati Bengals and Jacksonville Jaguars. Our model’s predictions for tonight’s game are below.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Model Predicts- Jaguars ML, OVER 229, Bengals +10

The Cincinnati Bengals will make the journey south to Jacksonville,Florida to battle the Jaguars on Monday Night Football.

Cincinnati enters tonight’s matchup with a 5-6 record, but the future looks rather grim for the Bengals with Joe Burrow sidelined for the remainder of the season. Meanwhile, the Jaguars have never had more of a reason to celebrate, entering tonight with a stellar 8-3 record after defeating the Houston Texans last week.

Our model expects Jacksonville to win this game by roughly a touchdown, but we are more concerned with the total in this spot. Let’s dive into why that is.

Cincinnati Bengals

• Will play rest of season without Joe Burrow

  • Replaced by Jake Browning- 19/26, 227 yards, 1 TD, and 1 INT last week. Led team to 10 points

• Offense is pass-heavy, and may not be that limited with Browning

  • Can’t run ball- rank 32nd in rush yards per game (75.8). Run ball on 33.49% of plays

  • 5.4 yards per play with Browning. Up from 4.9 with Burrow

• Defense is far from strong

  • Rank 31st in opponent success rate 

  • Rank in bottom 11 in EPA per dropback and rush

  • Will be without Cam Taylor-Britt tonight

Jacksonville Jaguars

• 7-1 over last eight games

  • +47 point differential in that time

  • Three wins came against AFC South rivals

• Pass offense has carried team

  • Rank inside top-10 in EPA/dropback and dropback success rate

  • Pick up yardage in big chunks- 10.3 yards per completion. Up to 12.1 in last three weeks

• However, defense is vulnerable to pass

  • Rank 28th in opponent passing yards per game

  • Allow 11.5 yards per completion while at home

What’s the Play?

Jake Browning in the lineup is obviously not ideal for the Bengals, and betting the over on Monday Night Football has often been a disaster, but we agree with our model that points can be scored here tonight.

Jacksonville has been great at moving the ball down the field and finding the endzone over the last eight weeks, scoring 24.7 points per game in that period. That is unlikely to change tonight, as Cincinnati’s defense just surrendered 421 yards to the Steelers last week, and while on the road this season has allowed its opponents to score a touchdown on 61.11% of red zone drives.

However, we shouldn’t count out the Bengals. Browning showed he can be an efficient passer by completing 73.1% of his passes last week, averaging 10.4 yards per completion. The Bengals’ pass-heavy offense has a good matchup to throw the ball, and we think Browning can execute enough to put points on the board.

It’s not a pretty bet, but nothing about this game is. We’ll take the over.

The Play: Over 40 (-110)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Jacksonville Jaguars- 8-3 overall this season, 3-3 as the home team

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Cincinnati Bengals- Over is 3-2 on the road this season with average total of 42.6

• Jacksonville Jaguars- Over is 3-3 at home this season with average total of 42.0

Spread Trends ➕➖

• Cincinnati Bengals- 4-6-1 against the spread (ATS) this season, 2-3 ATS as the away team

📖 Evans makes history in win over Carolina. Mike Evans secured 162 receiving yards in Sunday’s 21-18 victory against the Carolina Panthers, marking his 10th consecutive season surpassing 1,000 receiving yards. With this milestone, Evans becomes the inaugural wide receiver to achieve such consistency in the league's history. Evans now his sights set on Jerry Rice, who hold the NFL record for consecutive 1,000 yard seasons with 11.

💪 49ers dominate Eagles in South Philly. Brock Purdy's impressive performance alongside Deebo Samuel's three TDs, led the San Francisco 49ers to a commanding 42-19 victory over the Philadelphia Eagles in a heated NFC championship rematch. he game showcased the 49ers' dominance with six consecutive scoring possessions and highlighted tensions, including ejections of players and personnel. San Francisco now owns a 9-3 record for the season, keeping the No.1 seed in the NFC in reach.

After no NBA games on Sunday, we have just two matchups at our disposal today, marking the start of the quarterfinals of the In-Season Tournament. Our model’s predictions for both matchups are below.

Boston Celtics @ Indiana Pacers

Model Predicts- Celtics ML, UNDER 241, Pacers +5

The Boston Celtics and Indiana Pacers will square off in Indianapolis, Indiana tonight, marking the start of the In-Season Tournament quarterfinals.

Boston enters tonight’s matchup with a stellar 15-4 record, most recently defeating a bitter rival, the Philadelphia 76ers, last Friday by six points. Indiana has yet to find as much success as Boston, but has posted a 10-8 record through 18 games and sits in sixth place in the Eastern Conference.

The first meeting between these two teams was one of the largest blowouts in recent memory, but our model predicts a much more competitive game tonight. Let’s take a look at why that is.

Boston Celtics

• Blew out Pacers in first meeting

  • Won 155-104. Scored 31 or more points in all quarters

  • Shot 57% overall and from three

• Best team in NBA this season

  • Rank 1st in Net Rating (+9.5). Improved to +14.8 over last three games

  • Defense has been key- 107.6 Defensive Rating

• Showed some vulnerability in last game vs Philadelphia

  • Allowed 119 points to team without Joel Embiid, Tyrese Maxey, Kelly Oubre, and Nic Batum

Indiana Pacers

• Coming off win against Heat on Saturday

  • Won 144-129. Did so without Tyrese Haliburton

  • Shot 66% from floor and 50% from three

• Arguably the best offense in NBA

  • Rank 1st in Offensive Rating (123.8)- 4.0 points higher than any other team

  • Incredibly efficient- Shoot 51.1% overall and 38.4% from three

  • Tons of depth- Rank 1st in bench points per game (47.6)

• However, own one of worst defenses ever seen

  • Rank 29th in Defensive Rating (120.8). Surrender 125.9 points per game

What’s the Play?

The first meeting between these two teams likely doesn’t give anyone much confidence in the Pacers, but we agree with our model that Indiana can cover the five-point spread today.

One massive advantage that the Pacers have today is their depth, which may be needed as Tyrese Haliburton is questionable with an illness. Indiana has eight players on its roster averaging 10.0 points per game or more compared to Boston’s six, and the Celtics average just 25.9 points per game off the bench, the second-fewest this season. The Pacers may not have the advantage at the top of the lineup, but they have the edge when Brown and Tatum are sidelined.

Indiana’s non-existent defense is a reasonable concern, but its efficiency and fast pace on offense have kept them in almost every game this season. We’ll back that to be the case again.

The Play: Pacers +5 (-110)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Boston Celtics- 15-4 overall this season, 6-4 as the away team

• Sacramento Kings- 11-7 overall this season, 7-3 in last ten games

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Boston Celtics- Under is 10-9 this season, 5-5 as the away team

• New Orleans Pelicans- Under is 12-9 this season, 7-5 as an underdog

Spread Trends ➕➖

• Indiana Pacers- 10-8 against the spread (ATS) this season, 2-0 ATS as a home underdog

A busy week of NHL hockey will start off rather slowly, with just 12 teams hitting the ice today. Our model’s predictions for today’s matchups are below.

Pittsburgh Penguins @ Philadelphia Flyers

Model Predicts- Flyers ML, UNDER 6.5, Flyers +1.5

The Pittsburgh Penguins will begin a three-game road trip on Monday, with the first stop coming in their native Pennsylvania to face the Philadelphia Flyers.

The Penguins enter tonight’s matchup with an 11-10-2 record, most recently losing to this Flyers team in a shootout on Saturday. Philadelphia now enjoys a slight edge on Pittsburgh in the standings, sitting one spot above the Penguins in the Metropolitan division with a 12-10-2 record.

Our model doesn’t give the Penguins or Flyers an edge tonight, as seen by our model making this game a coin flip. However, it has identified a significant opportunity on the under, so let’s take a look at why that is.

Pittsburgh Penguins

• Offense has been one of best in NHL

  • Rank fourth in GA/60 in 5-on-5 (2.95)

  • Generate tons of pressure- rank in top-4 in high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes (HDCF/60) in 5-on-5 and shots on goal per game

• Offense is complimented with great defense

  • Surrender 2.15 goals per 60 minutes in 5-on-5

  • Kill 84.7% of penalties- 9th in NHL

• Expected goalie- Tristan Jarry

  • .930 Save % in 5-on-5. Ranks 12th in Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) with +6.8.

Philadelphia Flyers

• Beat Penguins in shootout on Saturday

  • Out-shot Pittsburgh 34-32. Came back from being down 2-1

• Defense is among best in NHL

  • Rank 5th in xGA/60 in 5-on-5 situations

  • Allow eighth fewest high-danger scoring chances in 5-on-5 and 5th fewest shots on goal per game

• Expected goalie- Carter Hart

  • .910 Save % in 5-on-5. Ranks 53rd in GSAx (-2.3)

What’s the Play?

Carter Hart hasn’t been the most reliable option in net this season, but we agree with our model that this can be a low-scoring contest.

Luckily for Hart, he has a great defense in front of him, one that has often stifled its opponents. Despite giving up three goals to Pittsburgh on Saturday, Philadelphia’s xGA in 5-on-5 for that game was just 0.88, showing that Philly is more than capable of slowing down the Penguins’ elite offense.

Jarry and the Penguins’ defense have been strong for most of the season as well, setting us up for a low-scoring game in South Philly.

The Play: Under 6.5 (-120)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Dallas Stars- 14-5-3 overall this season, 8-1-2 as the away team

• Arizona Coyotes- 12-9-2 overall this season, 7-4 as the home team

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Pittsburgh Penguins- Under is 14-7-2 this season with average total of 5.78

• Winnipeg Jets- Under is 12-10-1 this season with average total of 6.09

Puck Line Trends ➕➖

• Philadelphia Flyers- Puck line is 17-7 this season

• Montreal Canadiens- Puck line is 13-11 this season

💪 Wild beat Blackhawks for third straight win. Marco Rossi netted two goals, while Mats Zuccarello contributed a goal and two assists for the Minnesota Wild in their 4-1 triumph over the Chicago Blackhawks. Minnesota has starter to surge after a goal-scoring drought, tallying 13 goals while conceding just three in their recent three games. The win was the third consecutive victory for Minnesota, who is now 3-0 since John Hynes became head coach following the dismissal of Dean Evason.

🎩 Panarin’s hat trick leads Rangers to win over Sharks. Artemi Panarin's impressive hat trick and an assist propelled the New York Rangers to a narrow 6-5 victory against the San Jose Sharks. The Rangers secured their sixth win in seven games with the performance, maintaining a strong position atop the Metropolitan Division. Jonathan Quick also played a massive role in the game, remaining undefeated in regulation for the season.