In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter presented by SportSense Premium…

Additional Model Predictions ⬇️

NHL Model Predictions- Click Here

MLB Model Predictions- Click Here

There were plenty of model predictions to go around yesterday across the MLB, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions in our Featured Matchup. That prediction went 1-0 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 8-7

Over/Under Predictions: 8-7

Run Line Predictions: 12-3

Featured Matchup: 1-0

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Two NBA games are scheduled to take place today. Our model’s predictions for both matchups can be found below.

Oklahoma City Thunder @ Dallas Mavericks

Model Predicts- Thunder ML, OVER 213.5, Thunder +1.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder and Dallas Mavericks will continue their best-of-seven series on Monday, staying in Texas for a pivotal Game 4.

Oklahoma City began the second round in the drivers seat, taking an early 1-0 series lead following a dominant 117-95 win in Game 1. However, Dallas has turned the tables, taking down the Thunder on the road in Game 2 and at home in Game 3 by narrow margins.

Dallas appears to have the momentum heading into this crucial Game 4, but our model projects Oklahoma City to pick up a win and tie the series. Let’s take a look at why that is.

Oklahoma City Thunder

• Fell short in Games 2 and 3

  • Lost Game 2 119-110. Closer battle in Game 3 (105-101)

  • Shooting 44.8% from floor overall and 33.3 % from three in last two games (NBA.com)

• Sluggish first half defense is cause for last two losses

  • 119.0 Defensive Rating in first half of last two games. Dallas shooting 39.5% from three

  • Defense improves drastically in second half- Defensive Rating shifts to 111.7, but Mavericks still shooting 44.9% from three

• Injuries- Olivier Sarr is OUT

Dallas Mavericks

• Continue to win games at home in postseason

  • Now own 3-1 record in four postseason games

  • Winning games by close margins- own +23 point differential in four home games

• Shooting inefficiency will likely cause problems in future

  • Shooting 45.3% overall and 35.4% from three in playoffs- rank 10th out of 16 playoff teams in both categories

  • Doing more damage from three vs Thunder (39.0%), but still shooting 43.0% as a team in series

• Injuries- Luka Doncic is questionable. Maxi Kleber, Olivier-Maxence Prosper, and Greg Brown are OUT

What’s the Play?

Dallas has found a way to win each of the last two games despite shooting poorly from the floor overall. Getting hot from three has kept the Mavericks afloat, but we agree with our model that the Thunder are the team to back in Game 4.

Oklahoma City is a tremendous defensive team on the perimeter, a group that held opponents to shooting 36.1% from three in the regular season and 32.2% in the postseason. We’ve seen a spike in the Mavericks’ three-point shooting over the last two games, but we feel that efficiency is an anomaly and not the start of a new trend.

Additionally, Luka Doncic is far from healthy, and it is hurting Dallas’ offensive production. In Round 1 we saw Doncic average 29.8 points per game with poor shooting splits (40.5% overall, 23.9% from three), but in Round 2 he is averaging just 23.3 points per game and still shooting a poor 42.1% overall. As a result, Dallas’ Offensive Rating has tanked more than 5.0 points from Round 1 to Round 2, more signs of a team that is struggling on that end of the floor.

OKC is the better team on both ends of the floor, has the best player in the series in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander now that Doncic is far from 100%, and still owns a +3.5 Net Rating in the series despite being down 2-1. As a result, we expect the Thunder to get back on track here.

The Play: Thunder ML (+100)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Boston Celtics- 70-20 overall this season, 30-14 as the away team

• Oklahoma City Thunder- 62-27 overall this season, 26-18 as the away team

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Oklahoma City Thunder- Over is 46-40-3 this season, 24-19-1 as the away team

Spread Trends ➕➖

• Oklahoma City Thunder- 50-38-1 ATS this season, 11-10-1 ATS as an underdog, 4-3 ATS in postseason

💪 Pacers crush Knicks to tie series. Tyrese Haliburton scored 20 points and T.J. McConnell contributed 15 points and 10 assists as the Indiana Pacers secured a dominant 121-89 victory over the New York Knicks, evening the Eastern Conference semifinal series at 2-2. This marked the Pacers' second-largest playoff victory, with a 43-point lead at one stage, just shy of their most significant playoff win in 2018 against Cleveland. The Pacers now own a perfect 5-0 record at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in the postseason, and Game 5 is scheduled for Tuesday at Madison Square Garden.

🦅 Hawks win NBA Draft lottery despite low odds. The Atlanta Hawks secured the No. 1 pick in the 2024 NBA Draft, marking their first-ever lottery win with just a 3% chance. This is Atlanta's first top selection since 1975, the year the Hawks drafted David Thompson. The Washington Wizards, Houston Rockets (via Nets), San Antonio Spurs, and Detroit Pistons complete the top five picks, with the Pistons notably falling despite sharing the highest odds with the Wizards.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- Indiana Pacers point guard T.J. McConnell played at what university prior to transferring to the University of Arizona?

Question #2- The Florida Marlins defeated what team in six games to win the 2003 World Series?

Question #3- Only two offensive players were selected in the top-nine of the 2010 NFL Draft. One was Oklahoma quarterback Sam Bradford, and the other was what running back from Clemson?

Anyone know what has happened on May 13th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On May 13th…

1993- Kansas City Royals legend George Brett hits his 300th home run. George reached the milestone in a 7-3 win over the Cleveland Indians, joining Hank Aaron, Stan Musial, Carl Yastrsemski, Willie Mays, and Al Kaline as the only players in MLB history to record 3,000 hits and 300 home runs. Brett would end his career with 317 home runs, which ranks 135th on the all-time list.

1997- Former MLB third baseman Eddie Murray plays in his 3,000th career game. Murray’s milestone game was a dominant 16-8 win by the Anaheim Angels over the Chicago White Sox, one in which Murray went 0-for-4 at the plate as the Angels’ designated hitter. Murray become the sixth player in MLB history to play in 3,000 games, and he would go on to play in 3,026 before retiring.

2018- American golfer Webb Simpson wins the PGA Players Championship at TPC Sawgrass. Simpson won the tournament by four strokes and finished with a final score of 18-under par, taking down Xander Schauffele, Jimmy Walker, and Charl Schwartzel by four strokes. The victory was the fifth for Simpson in his career and his first in four years.

1. Duquesne University

2. New York Yankees

3. C.J. Spiller