In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

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There were plenty of model predictions to go around yesterday across the MLB, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions in our Featured Matchup. That prediction went 0-1 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 4-6

Over/Under Predictions: 7-2-1

Run Line Predictions: 7-3

Featured Matchup: 0-1

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15 MLB games are scheduled to take place today. Our model’s predictions for all 15 matchups can be found below.

Minnesota Twins @ San Diego Padres

Model Predicts- Twins ML, OVER 7.5, Padres +1.5

The Minnesota Twins and San Diego Padres will continue their three-game series on Tuesday, with the first pitch for Game 2 scheduled to take place at 9:40 PM Eastern.

Minnesota has had mixed results on the road trip thus far, but for the most part has held its ground, posting a 3-2 record across five games. That stretch brought the Twins’ record to 70-55 for the season, and the Padres are in a similar position at 71-55.

Not much separates these teams in the standings, but our model projects the Twins to win tonight’s ball game. Let’s take a look at why that is.

Minnesota Twins

• Have won three of five games on road trip

  • All three wins have come against Rangers

  • Have lost two consecutive games, but own +2 run differential in last five contests

• Offense is hot in August despite some key injuries

  • Rank 6th in wRC+ (117), 24th in BABIP (.280), and 8th in OPS (.776) since August 1st

  • 90 runs scored and 26 home runs both rank fourth in MLB

• Starting pitcher- Bailey Ober

  • Pitching to expectations- 3.49 ERA vs 3.36 xERA

  • Struggles with fly balls (33.9% Ground Ball rate), but ranks in top 25% of MLB in Strikeout rate (26.5%) and Whiff rate (28.7%)

San Diego Padres

• Have dominated most opponents since All-Star break

  • Own 21-6 record since July 19th

  • Posted +60 run differential in that 27 game span

• Balanced pitching and offense have been key to success in second half

  • Pitching- 3.09 ERA (2nd), 3.24 FIP (1st), 0.85 HR/9 (2nd)

  • Hitting- 128 wRC+ (3rd), .313 BABIP (5th), .805 OPS (5th)

• Starting pitcher- Martín Pérez

  • Due for regression- 4.62 ERA vs 5.44 xERA

  • Ranks in bottom 20% of MLB in Strikeout rate (18.9%), and Whiff rate (20.4%)

What’s the Play?

Minnesota and San Diego have been equally hot at the plate recently, but we agree with our model that the Twins are in a better position to win tonight’s game.

Martín Pérez has been stellar on the mound recently, posting a 1.49 ERA and 09.5 WHIP across his last four starts. However, per Baseball Savant, Pérez owns an xERA that sits 0.82 runs higher than his real ERA, a sign that he has been lucky on the mound and is due to regress.

That regression can certainly happen today, as Minnesota has been great against left-handed pitching this season, ranking 7th in wRC+, 12th in BABIP, and 8th in OPS.

Many pitching metrics favor Bailey Ober here, and the Minnesota offense is in a good position to put up some runs against Pérez despite being without Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton. We’ll take the Twins on the money line here.

The Play: Twins ML (-110)

Money Line Trends 💰

• New York Mets- 65-60 overall this season, 34-32 as the home team

• Minnesota Twins- 70-55 overall this season, 34-31 as the away team

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Arizona Diamondbacks- Over is 69-51-6 this season, 32-27-4 as the away team

• Miami Marlins- Over is 69-53-3 this season, 45-17-2 as the home team

Run Line Trends ➕➖

• Cincinnati Reds- Run line is 70-55 this season, 30-15 as a road underdog

🤕 Austin Riley set to miss six to eight weeks. The Atlanta Braves announced that third baseman Austin Riley will be sidelined for six to eight weeks due to a right hand fracture sustained from a fastball during Sunday’s game. Riley, a two-time All-Star, joins a growing list of injured Braves players, including Ronald Acuña Jr. and Ozzie Albies. Despite a strong performance this season, Riley’s absence will be felt as the team also reinstates right-hander Reynaldo López from the injured list.

💪 Verlander to return from injured list on Wednesday. Justin Verlander is set to return from the injured list to start the final game of the Astros' series against the Red Sox on Wednesday. Manager Joe Espada emphasized Verlander's importance to the team's success, noting that his return is a significant boost as the team heads into a busy stretch of games. Although Verlander, who has been out since June with neck stiffness, might be monitored closely for pitch count, the Astros are hopeful his presence will help maintain their strong performance in the AL West.

Today’s trivia requires you to go back to 2012. We’ve given you the first five quarterbacks selected in the 2012 NFL Draft, and it’s your job to guess which college/university each player attended before their NFL career.

As always, answers are at the end of the newsletter.

Anyone know what has happened on August 20th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On August 20th…

1945- 17-year-old Tommy Brown of the Brooklyn Dodgers becomes the youngest player in MLB history to hit a home run. Despite the history-making hit, Brown’s homer would be the only run scored by the Dodgers that day in what turned into a 11-1 loss to the Pittsburgh Pirates. Brown would play for the Phillies and Cubs in addition to the Dodgers over his 10-year career, hitting 31 home runs in that time.

2000- Tiger Woods wins the 82nd PGA Championship, hosted by Valhalla Golf Club in Louisville, Kentucky. Woods took control of the tournament from Day 1, shooting 6-under par in Round 1 to jump into a tie for first with Scott Dunlap before taking a one-stroke lead into Sunday. Woods would 5-under par in the final round to win by five strokes, becoming the first golfer since Ben Hogan to win three majors in a calendar year.

2016- British distance runner Mo Farah wins the Olympic gold medal in the 5,000 meters, completing the event in 13 minutes and 3 seconds. Farah also won the 10,000 meters earlier in the week, marking the second Olympic games in a row in which he won both events. Farah’s dominance on the track stretched several years after the 2016 Rio Olympics, with Farah going undefeated in the 10,000 meter run from 2011-2021.

Andrew Luck- Stanford

Robert Griffin III- Baylor

Ryan Tannehill- Texas A&M

Brandon Weeden- Oklahoma State

Brock Osweiler- Arizona State