In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter presented by Betstamp…

Additional Model Predictions & Bonuses ⬇️

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15 MLB games are scheduled to take place today. Our model’s predictions for all 15 matchups can be found below.

New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles

Model Predicts- Orioles ML, OVER 9, Orioles +1.5

The New York Yankees will continue their six-game road trip on Friday, with the next stop coming in Baltimore, Maryland to battle the Baltimore Orioles.

New York enters the final series before the All-Star break in a bit of a slump, as the Yankees have won just two of nine games since July 1st. Baltimore has been far better since the start of July, but enters this series fresh off of being swept by the Chicago Cubs.

Neither one of these teams looks great, but our model expects the Orioles to get back on track here in a high-scoring game. Let’s take a look at why that is.

New York Yankees

• Fresh off series loss to Tampa Bay Rays

  • Outscored Rays 2-1 in Game 2, but lost 5-3 in Game 1 and 5-4 in Game 3

• Now own 2-7 record in July following last series

  • Offense- ranks 27th in wRC+ (88), 30th in BABIP (.226), and 28th in OPS (.655)

  • Pitching- 12th in ERA (4.28), 22nd in FIP (4.46), 28th in HR/9 (1.80)

• Starting pitcher- Gerrit Cole

  • Due for positive regression, but still expected to be bad- 6.75 ERA vs 5.90 xERA

  • Owns 28.0% Ground Ball rate and 46.0% Hard Hit rate

Baltimore Orioles

• Coming off series loss to Cubs

  • Lost all three games. Shutout in Games 2 and 3

  • Scored two runs in series, surrendered 21 to Cubs

• Offense has been slightly better than New York’s, but not by much

  • Rank 21st in wRC+ (94), 19th in BABIP (.289), and 23rd in OPS (.685)

• Starting pitcher- Cade Povich

  • Due for positive regression- 6.51 ERA vs 4.01 xERA

  • Ranks in bottom 1% in Barrel rate (13.0%), bottom 5% in Strikeout rate (14.4%)

What’s the Play?

New York and Baltimore’s offenses are currently sitting at rock bottom from a production standpoint, but we agree with our model that this is a good spot to back the over.

Gerrit Cole has struggled since returning from injury, and although some metrics show things will get slightly better, it’s more likely than not going to be ugly. Yes, his 5.90 xERA is lower than his real ERA of 6.75, but that is still a horrible number that shows he does not have his best stuff on the mound right now, and his inability to prevent hard contact and fly balls puts the Orioles offense in position to get back on track tonight.

Povich is in a similar spot, as his xERA is 2.5 runs lower than his real ERA, but the combination of pitching to contact and a high barrel rate gives a struggling Yankees offense a great chance to pile on runs. As a result, we' expect a high-scoring game here, and will take the over at its current total of nine.

The Play: Over 9 (-110)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Cleveland Guardians- 57-35 overall this season, 27-24 as the away team

• St. Louis Cardinals- 48-44 overall this season, 24-20 as the home team

• Baltimore Orioles- 57-36 overall this season, 29-20 as the home team

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• New York Yankees- Over is 50-41-4 this season, 27-21-3 as the away team

• Baltimore Orioles- Over is 48-36-9 this season, 23-20-6 as the home team

Run Line Trends ➕➖

• Washington Nationals- Run line is 52-42 this season, highest win percentage in MLB (55.3%)

🧹 Phillies bring out the brooms against the Dodgers. Brandon Marsh hit a home run and an RBI triple, while Trea Turner launched his sixth longball in nine games, leading the Philadelphia Phillies to a 5-1 victory over the Los Angeles Dodgers, completing a three-game sweep. Aaron Nola struck out nine in six innings, and Kyle Schwarber also homered for the Phillies, marking their first sweep of the Dodgers since 2011 and their first in Philadelphia since 2008. Despite Gavin Lux's solo home run, the Dodgers have now lost four straight and eight of their last twelve games.

🤕 Cubs place Bellinger on IL. The Chicago Cubs placed outfielder Cody Bellinger on the 10-day injured list due to a fractured left middle finger after being hit by a pitch. To fill his spot, the Cubs recalled outfielder Alexander Canario from Triple-A. Bellinger, who is expected to be out through the All-Star break, expressed his frustration and disappointment, while Canario has shown promise with 16 home runs and a .832 OPS in Triple-A this season.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- Two University of North Carolina basketball players were selected within the top-five of the 2005 NBA Draft. Who were those players?

Question #2- Current Chicago White Sox player Tommy Pham played for two MLB teams during the 2023 season. What were those teams?

Question #3- Two players led the NFL in rushing touchdowns during the 2013 season, each scoring 12. Who were those players?

Anyone know what has happened on July 12th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On July 12th…

1981- Former NFL wide receiver Andre Johnson is born Miami, Florida. Johnson played in the NFL from 2003-2016, spending most of his career with the Houston Texans but also playing for the Indianapolis Colts and Tennessee Titans. In that time, Johnson was named to the Pro Bowl seven times, and First-Team All-Pro twice, leading to his Pro Football Hall of Fame induction in 2024.

1985- Former MLB pitcher Nolan Ryan records his 4,000th career strikeout. The 38-year-old pitcher struck out New York Mets outfielder to reach the milestone, becoming the first player in MLB history to do so. Ryan would end his career with 5,714 strikeouts, the most of any pitcher in MLB history.

2012- NBA star Steve Nash is traded from the Phoenix Suns to the Los Angeles Lakers. The trade paired Nash with the great Kobe Bryant, and in return the Suns received four draft picks. Nash would suit up for the Lakers until 2015, and retired from basketball following that season.

1. Marvin Williams, Raymond Felton

2. New York Mets, Arizona Diamondbacks

3. Jamaal Charles, Marshawn Lynch