In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

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There were plenty of model predictions to go around yesterday across the MLB, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions in our Featured Matchup. That prediction went 1-0 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 7-3

Over/Under Predictions: 5-4-1

Run Line Predictions: 3-7

Featured Matchup: 1-0

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15 MLB games are scheduled to take place today. Our model’s predictions for all 15 matchups can be found below.

San Francisco Giants @ Milwaukee Brewers

Model Predicts- Brewers ML, OVER 7.5, Brewers +1.5

The San Francisco Giants will continue their six-game road trip on Tuesday, with the next stop coming in Milwaukee, Wisconsin to battle the Brewers.

San Francisco’s road trip got off to a poor start over the weekend, losing two of three games at the hands of the Seattle Mariners. Those losses make the Giants just 1-3 in the last four games, pushing their season record to 66-66, while Milwaukee enters tonight’s matchup at 75-55 following a series victory over the Oakland Athletics this weekend.

Sportsbooks make the Giants a slim favorite in this matchup, but our model projects the Brewers to win tonight’s game. Let’s take a look at why that is.

San Francisco Giants

• Have lost three of last four games

  • One loss to White Sox, two losses to Mariners

  • Posted -5 run differential in that stretch

• Offensive struggles have been main reason for sudden losing skid

  • Own 88 wRC+ (20th), .276 BABIP (22nd), and .679 OPS across last four games

  • Strikeouts are largest concern- 30.5% Strikeout rate ranks bottom-three in MLB. Up from 23.1% for season

• Starting pitcher- Logan Webb

  • Due for regression- 3.13 ERA vs 4.08 xERA

  • Vulnerable to hard contact- 46.8% Hard Hit rate ranks in bottom 4% of MLB

Milwaukee Brewers

• Coming off series win over Athletics

  • Outscored Oakland 11-3 in Game 1 and 9-5 in Game 2 before losing 4-3 in Game 3

  • Have now won seven of last ten games

• Offense was nearly unstoppable in Oakland series

  • Posted 125 wRC+, .315 BABIP, and .819 OPS across three games

  • Walks were big difference maker- 10.7% Walk rate contributed to .347 on base % (both top-seven in MLB since Aug. 23rd)

• Starting pitcher- Tobias Myers

  • Due for regression- 2.87 ERA vs 4.11 xERA

What’s the Play?

San Francisco and Milwaukee each have a starting pitcher with a sizable variance between his ERA and xERA, which means both teams are in a position to score some runs today. However, we agree with our model that the Brewers are more likely to win tonight’s game.

Logan Webb has been due for regression for quite some time, and it’s largely due to his vulnerability to hard contact. As previously mentioned, Webb ranks in the bottom 4% of the MLB in Hard Hit rate this season, and to make matters worse he is in the bottom 19% of the league in Whiff rate (21.3%) and xBA (.270). Not only is he giving up lots of contact, but it is oftentimes bad contact, and that will eventually lead to more runs.

Myers is in a similar position when it comes to regression, but he is far less vulnerable to hard contact and has the benefit of a hot offense behind him for support, something that Webb does not possess today.

Our model projects Milwaukee as a -130 favorite at home in this matchup, so we’ll gladly grab them at -105.

The Play: Brewers ML (-105)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Cleveland Guardians- 75-57 overall this season, 40-23 as the home team

• San Diego Padres- 75-58 overall this season, 38-26 as the away team

• Milwaukee Brewers- 75-55 overall this season, 38-24 as the home team, and 7-3 in the last 10 games

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Milwaukee Brewers- Over is 70-52-8 this season, 35-21-6 as the home team

• Miami Marlins- Under is 34-27-1 as the away team this season, highest win percentage in MLB (60.7%)

Run Line Trends ➕➖

• Baltimore Orioles- Run line is 73-59 this season, 16-4 as a road underdog

🐦 Blue Jays sweep suspended double-header vs Red Sox. George Springer hit two home runs, including a three-run shot in a five-run fifth inning, leading the Toronto Blue Jays to a 7-3 win over the Boston Red Sox, who suffered their fifth consecutive loss. In the earlier game, Springer also homered as Toronto won 4-1, with Danny Jansen becoming the first player in MLB history to play for both teams in the same game after being traded to Boston in July. José Berríos secured his fourth consecutive win, while the Red Sox struggled with four errors, further diminishing their playoff hopes.

🥇 Royals inch closer to first place with wins over Guardians. Salvador Perez hit a grand slam and drove in six runs, helping the Kansas City Royals complete a doubleheader sweep of Cleveland with a 9-4 win, pulling within one game of first place in the AL Central. In the opener, Bobby Witt Jr.'s homer broke an eighth-inning tie, leading the Royals to a 4-3 victory. The Royals, who were nine games back in early July, have surged with a 22-13 record since the All-Star break and can tie for the division lead with a win on Tuesday.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- One infielder and one pitcher were selected first and second overall in the 2017 MLB Draft, both of which were selected out of high schools in California. The infielder was Royce Lewis, but who was the pitcher?

Question #2- Larry Fitzgerald and what other wide receiver led the NFL in receptions during the 2005 season, each recording 103?

Question #3- The San Antonio Spurs drafted University of Kentucky guard Rob Dillingham in the 2024 NBA Draft, but qucikly traded him to what other Western Conference team?

Anyone know what has happened on August 27th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On August 27th…

1982- MLB legend Rickey Henderson steals his 119th base of the season. The steal enabled Henderson to move past Lou Brock for the most steals in a single season, a record Brock had held for eight seasons. Henderson would go on to steal 130 bases in the 1982 season and 1,406 for his career, both of which rank first in MLB history.

1988- Former MLB manager Tommy LaSorda wins his 1,000th career game as a manager. The win came in a victory over the Philadelphia Phillies, a game in which LaSorda and his Los Angeles Dodgers team won 4-2. LaSorda would end his career with 1,599 wins, which currently ranks 23rd on the MLB’s all-time list.

2004- Argentina upsets the United States Men’s Basketball team at the Athens Olympics. Manu Ginobili led the way for Argentina, dropping 29 points while shooting 69.2% overall and 66.7% from three. Argentina would then go on to win the gold medal match a short time later, while the U.S. would have to settle for the bronze medal.

1. Hunter Greene

2. Steve Smith Sr.

3. Minnesota Timberwolves