In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

Additional Model Predictions & Bonuses ⬇️

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There were plenty of model predictions to go around yesterday across the MLB, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions in our Featured Matchups. That prediction went 1-0 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 4-6

Over/Under Predictions: 5-4-1

Run Line Predictions: 6-4

Featured Matchup: 1-0

16 MLB games are scheduled to take place today. Our model’s predictions for 15 of those 16 matchups can be found below.

Oakland Athletics @ Toronto Blue Jays

Model Predicts- Athletics ML, OVER 8.5, Athletics +1.5

The Oakland Athletics will begin a six-game road trip on Friday night, with the first stop coming in Toronto, Canada to take on the Blue Jays.

Oakland enters this series fresh off a series win over the Chicago White Sox, taking two of three games at home. The Athletics are now 3-3 in the month of August, and the Blue Jays sit at 3-3 this month as well following a win over the Orioles on Thursday.

Sportsbooks make the Blue Jays the favorite in this matchup, but our model has spotted some value on the Athletics in what it projects to be a high-scoring game. Lets’ take a look at why that is.

Oakland Athletics

• Fresh off series win over White Sox

  • Outscored Chicago 5-1 in Game 1 and 3-2 in Game 3, but lost Game 2 5-1

  • Now 3-3 in August and 7-5 in last 12 games

• Offense continues to be one of best in MLB since All-Star break

  • Rank 7th in wRC+ (117), 22nd in BABIP (.276), and 9th in OPS (.757) since July 19th

  • Power hitting has been largest factor- 26 home runs across last 18 games (7th most in MLB)

• Starting pitcher- Mitch Spence

  • Due for positive regression- 4.39 ERA vs 3.76 xERA

  • Struggles with hard contact (42.3% Hard Hit rate)

Toronto Blue Jays

• Won most recent series vs Orioles

  • Outscored Baltimore 5-2 in Game 1 and 7-6 in Game 3, lost 7-3 in Game 2

  • Have won only three of last eight games

• Offense is somewhat productive this month, but bullpen has been terrible

  • Own 108 wRC+ (15th), .349 BABIP (4th), and .729 OPS (16th) since August 1st

  • Bullpen- Rank 27th in ERA (6.15) and 26th in FIP (5.39). Allowing 5.68 walks per nine innings

• Starting pitcher- José Berríos

  • Due for tons of regression- 4.11 ERA vs 5.28 xERA

  • Ranks in bottom 12% in Hard Hit rate, Whiff rate, and xBA

What’s the Play?

Our model sees the most value on the Athletics money line in this matchup, and we agree with our model on that prediction.

Mitch Spence has gotten himself into some trouble due to his vulnerability to hard contact, but several metrics are still on his side. His xERA comes in 0.63 runs lower than his real ERA, indicating he has been unlucky on the mound and is due to surrender fewer runs in the future. Spence also has tons of momentum on his side entering today, as he has posted a 2.65 ERA and 1.24 WHIP across his last 17.0 innings.

On the other hand, Jose Berrios is a candidate for a massive amount of regression, and his inability to avoid contact has led him to surrendering 25 home runs this season, the second-most in the MLB. To make matters worse, he has zero bullpen support and an inconsistent offense on his side, putting Toronto in a tough spot today.

Oakland is the better hitting team right now and has the advantage on the mound. As a result, we’ll back the A’s as an underdog.

The Play: Athletics ML (+120)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Baltimore Orioles- 68-48 overall this season, 34-23 as the away team

• San Diego Padres- 64-52 overall this season, 34-23 as the away team, and 5-0 in last five games

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Houston Astros- Under is 65-45-4 this season, 31-22-1 as the away team

• Toronto Blue Jays- Over is 63-49-3 this season, 33-23-1 as the home team

Run Line Trends ➕➖

• Pittsburgh Pirates- Run line is 64-50 this season, highest win percentage in MLB (56.1%)

🏴‍☠️ Pirates call up Domingo Germán from Triple-A. The Pittsburgh Pirates are promoting right-hander Domingo Germán from Triple-A, as his contract allowed an opt-out if not in the majors by August 9. Germán, who previously played six seasons with the New York Yankees and threw a perfect game in June 2023, could join the Pirates' rotation this weekend against the Dodgers. After a brief release and re-signing in July, Germán has been pitching in Triple-A with a 5.29 ERA this season.

🤝 White Sox name Grady Sizemore interim manager. The Chicago White Sox fired manager Pedro Grifol and several coaches, naming Grady Sizemore as the interim manager after a disappointing 28-89 season. Despite snapping a 21-game losing streak, the team continues to struggle, prompting general manager Chris Getz to state that a change was necessary for the team's future. Grifol, who had an 89-190 record over two seasons with the White Sox, expressed gratitude for the opportunity and remains motivated for his future endeavors.

Guess that player!

We’ll list the year, round, pick, and team that made the selection of some NBA and NFL players, and you have to guess who the player is.

Player 1- 1999 / Round 1 / Pick 10 / Atlanta Hawks

Player 2- 2004 / Round 1 / Pick 18 / New Orleans Hornets

Player 3- 2016 / Round 2 / Pick 36 / Milwaukee Bucks

Player 1- 1991 / Round 2 / Pick 33 / Atlanta Falcons

Player 2- 2006 / Round 1 / Pick 28 / Jacksonville Jaguars

Player 3- 2017 / Round 3 / Pick 69 / Los Angeles Rams

Anyone know what has happened on August 9th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On August 9th…

1971- MLB legend Satchel Paige is inducted into the baseball Hall of Fame. Paige began his professional baseball career in 1926 as a member of the Chattanooga Black Lookouts of the Negro Leagues, and it would take until 1948 for Paige to enter the MLB, playing his first game with the Cleveland Indians at the age of 42. He would play his final MLB game in 1965 at the age of 59 for the Kansas City Athletics, ending a tremendous career as the oldest player to ever participate in an MLB game.

1988- The Edmonton Oilers trade Wayne Gretzky to the Los Angeles Kings for Jimmy Carson, Martin Gelinas, three first round draft picks, and $15 million cash. Unsurprisingly, Gretzky made an immediate impact in Los Angeles, collecting 54 goals, 114 assists, and the Hart Trophy in his first season. He would play for the Kings until the 1996 season, the same year he was traded to the St. Louis Blues following the financial collapse of the Kings’ franchise.

2020- American golfer Collin Morikawa wins his first major title at the PGA Championship, defeating Englishman Paul Casey by two strokes. Morikawa didn’t enter the top-10 until he shot a 5-under 65 round on Saturday, following that up with a stellar 6-under par round on Sunday to seal the deal. His score of 129 in the final two rounds of play set a new PGA Championship record, and Morikawa became the ninth player in PGA Tour history to win the event on his first attempt.

NBA Answers

1. Jason Terry

2. J.R. Smith

3. Malcolm Brogdon

NFL Answers

1. Brett Favre

2. Marcedes Lewis

3. Cooper Kupp